# Alcoa Corporation (AA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AA · data as of 2026-10-23 13:31 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Alcoa Corporation (AA), nexqual.com/AA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 38.43 (-0.67% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 13:31 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 38.69 · day 38.25–38.5 · 52w 35.12–84.38 · market cap $10.1B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $13.6B, net income $1.28B (9.4% margin), free cash flow $352M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.9x (avg 73.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), net debt $872M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $845M vs operating income null over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈23.5x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 0% effective rate).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $1.3M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.3M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.36 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 54.59 (range 48–63).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -3.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -12.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-15, EPS estimate USD 1.56, revenue estimate $3.81B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | $12.5B | $10.6B | $11.9B | $12.8B | $13.6B |
| Net income | $429M | -$123M | -$651M | $60.0M | $1.16B | $1.28B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.26 | -$0.68 | -$3.65 | $0.26 | $4.37 | — |
| Free cash flow | $530M | $342M | -$440M | $42.0M | $567M | $352M |
| Net margin | 3.5% | -1.0% | -6.2% | 0.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% |
| Revenue growth | +30.9% | +2.5% | -15.3% | +12.7% | +7.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.81B | $1.36B | $944M | $1.14B | $1.60B | — |
| Total debt | $1.73B | $1.81B | $1.81B | $2.54B | $2.44B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 7.9x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈23.5x · P/S 0.8x · EV/Sales 0.8x · P/FCF 28.8x · P/B 1.4x · FCF yield 3.47% · Earnings yield 12.59% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.04% · Net debt $872M · EV $11.0B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 12.0x, Dec 2024 134.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Bacchi Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 700 | $36K | 0.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-27 | Jones Tammi A | EVP & CHRO | 15,628 | $791K | 23.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Hastings Andrew | EVP & Gen. Counsel | 6,000 | $305K | 13.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-22 | Reed Matthew T | EVP, Chief Operations Officer | 4,600 | $215K | 6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.36 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 54.59 (low 48, high 63).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Argus Research | Downgrade | Buy → Hold |  |
| 2026-10-20 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $76 → $56 |
| 2026-10-20 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $80 → $63 |
| 2026-10-20 | Freedom Broker | Target lowered | Buy | $76 → $62 |
| 2026-10-14 | Barclays | Initiated | Overweight | $55 |
| 2026-10-07 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $52 → $50 |
| 2026-10-07 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $53 → $50 |
| 2026-09-22 | Freedom Broker | Target raised | Buy | $64 → $76 |
| 2026-09-18 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $71 → $60 |
| 2026-07-22 | Argus Research | Target lowered | Buy | $73 → $55 |
| 2026-07-17 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Market Perform | $60 → $55 |
| 2026-07-17 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $55 → $52 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -3.5% | -12.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -3.5% | -2.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 53.2% | 53.9% |
| Max drawdown | -54.0% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -74.1% (Mar 2022→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Aluminum)
CSTM (Constellium SE) USD 23.69 -1.25% · CENX (Century Aluminum Company) USD 32.33 -0.98% · KALU (Kaiser Aluminum Corporation) USD 112 -2.60% · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) USD 35.18 +0.11% · NTR (Nutrien Ltd.) USD 69.46 +0.54% · STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.) USD 240.38 +0.20%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AA's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Rio Tinto (RIO) | "ELYSIS® Limited Partnership (ELYSIS) is between wholly-owned subsidiaries of Alcoa (48.235%) and Rio Tinto Alcan Inc. (Rio Tinto) (48.235%), respectively, and Investissement Québec (3.53%), a company wholly-owned by the …" |
| Partner | ELYSIS | "Though we are investing in technology to reduce the production of GHG in the manufacture of our products, such as our ELYSIS partnership aluminum smelting technology and other technologies that are designed to limit the …" |

Other companies that name AA in their own reports (relationship from AA's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | KAISER ALUMINUM CORP (KALU) | 10-K 2026-02-19 | "We rely on Alcoa Corporation ("Alcoa") for certain resources essential to the day-to-day operation of our business at Warrick." |
| customer | Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) | 10-K 2026-02-12 | "The remaining guarantee, which had a fair value of $5 and $6 as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, relates to a long-term energy supply agreement that expires in 2047 at an Alcoa Corporation…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | $3.33B | 84.1% | +70.1% |
| Alumina | $1.09B | 27.5% | -28.2% |
| Total revenue | $3.97B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 111.6% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | $3.45B | 86.9% | +72.9% |
| Alumina | $538.0M | 13.6% | -35.2% |
| Bauxite | $76.0M | 1.9% | -62.6% |
| Energy | $52.0M | 1.3% | +36.8% |
| Total revenue | $3.97B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 103.7% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $6.12B | 47.7% | +14.0% |
| Australia | $3.01B | 23.5% | -3.7% |
| Netherlands | $2.34B | 18.3% | +6.8% |
| Brazil | $1.02B | 7.9% | +16.2% |
| Spain | $318.0M | 2.5% | +8.5% |
| Other Geographical Regions | $25.0M | 0.2% | -34.2% |
| Total revenue | $12.83B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-15)

- "Alcoa reaffirms its 2026 Alumina segment production and shipment projection of 9.5 to 9.6 million metric tons and 11.5 to 11.6 million metric tons, respectively."
- "Alcoa reaffirms its 2026 Aluminum segment production and shipment projection of 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons and 2.6 to 2.8 million metric tons, respectively."
- "For the fourth quarter 2026, the Company expects to maintain the strong operational performance delivered in the third quarter 2026."
- "Within the fourth quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects performance to be consistent sequentially."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.56 | $1.56 | -0.3% | $3.81B | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $1.38 | $1.41 | -2.8% | $3.61B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.79 | $6.50 | +4.5% | $14.67B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.21 | $5.80 | -10.2% | $14.90B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 49.8% | ±5.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 42.8% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 44.7% | ±8.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 46.1% | ±10.4% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 45.0% | ±11.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 43.4% | ±12.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 44.7% | ±14.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 44.0% | ±17.0% |