# American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AAL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), nexqual.com/AAL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 12.6 (+2.98% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 12.24 · day 11.7–12.71 · 52w 10.09–18.79 · market cap $8.34B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $61.0B, net income -$481M (-0.8% margin), free cash flow -$91.0M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AAL (13F, Q2 2026): 2 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $5.7M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.5M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.52 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 15.44 (range 6.1–24).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -1.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -34.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD -0.64, revenue estimate $16.7B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.9B | $49.0B | $52.8B | $54.2B | $54.6B | $61.0B |
| Operating income | -$1.06B | $1.61B | $3.03B | $2.61B | $1.47B | $972M |
| Net income | -$1.99B | $127M | $822M | $846M | $111M | -$481M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$3.09 | $0.19 | $1.21 | $1.24 | $0.17 | — |
| Free cash flow | $496M | -$373M | $1.21B | $1.30B | -$680M | -$91.0M |
| Operating margin | -3.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Net margin | -6.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| Revenue growth | +72.4% | +63.9% | +7.8% | +2.7% | +0.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $12.4B | $9.11B | $7.68B | $7.08B | $5.94B | — |
| Total debt | $37.3B | $34.9B | $32.4B | $29.8B | $28.3B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/S 0.1x · EV/EBITDA 9.0x · EV/Sales 0.5x · FCF yield -1.09% · Earnings yield -5.77% · Net debt $20.6B · EV $28.9B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 91.3x, Dec 2024 14.9x, Dec 2023 12.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AAL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Burn | Sound Shore | 3.31% | $108M | New position |
| David Tepper | Appaloosa Management | 1.81% | $136M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30…2026-07-31 | Johnson Stephen L | Vice Chair | 60,000 | $917K | 3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31 | Owens Angela | SVP Corporate Controller | 40,077 | $612K | 18.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-07-27…2026-07-29 | Johnson Stephen L | Vice Chair | 90,000 | $1.3M | 4.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-28 | Owens Angela | SVP Corporate Controller | 39,168 | $601K | 15.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-06-24…2026-06-25 | Seymour David | EVP Chief Operating Officer | 125,799 | $2.2M | 11.5% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.52 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 15.44 (low 6.1, high 24).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $17 → $16 |
| 2026-10-07 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $20 → $15 |
| 2026-10-06 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $17 → $14 |
| 2026-10-02 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Sell | $13 → $11 |
| 2026-10-02 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $16 → $15 |
| 2026-09-28 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Market Perform | $19 → $15.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $17 → $13 |
| 2026-09-18 | Rothschild & Co | Target raised | Neutral | $12.5 → $13.5 |
| 2026-09-11 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $19 → $14 |
| 2026-09-10 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $18 → $17 |
| 2026-08-24 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $24 → $16 |
| 2026-07-27 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $18 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -1.3% | -34.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -1.3% | -8.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.5% | 46.3% |
| Max drawdown | -37.4% (Dec 2025→Mar 2026) | -56.6% (Nov 2021→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Airlines)
CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) USD 134.86 -0.94% · ALK (Alaska Air Group, Inc.) USD 35.38 +5.49% · SKYW (SkyWest, Inc.) USD 95.73 +1.57% · LUV (Southwest Airlines Company) USD 42.03 +5.39% · RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc) USD 53.67 -0.79% · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) USD 15.21 -0.33%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AAL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AAL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6201/000000620126000014/aal-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Airbus | "For example, all of our mainline aircraft were manufactured by either Airbus or Boeing and all of our regional aircraft were manufactured by either Bombardier or Embraer." |
| Supplier | Boeing (BA) | "For example, all of our mainline aircraft were manufactured by either Airbus or Boeing and all of our regional aircraft were manufactured by either Bombardier or Embraer." |
| Customer | Mastercard (MA) | "In 2025, the AAdvantage program was recognized for Best Customer Service and Best Redemption Ability in the Americas and the Citi®/AAdvantage® Platinum Select® World Elite Mastercard® co-branded credit card was recognize…" |
| Customer | Expedia (EXPE) | "While our priority is to migrate an increasing portion of our customers to our modern, direct distribution channels in lieu of third party channels, we continue to rely on third-party distribution channels, including tho…" |
| Customer | Booking Holdings (BKNG) | "While our priority is to migrate an increasing portion of our customers to our modern, direct distribution channels in lieu of third party channels, we continue to rely on third-party distribution channels, including tho…" |
| Partner | REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC. (RJET) | "In 2025, 2024 and 2023, we recognized $658 million, $612 million and $636 million, respectively, of expense under our capacity purchase agreement with Republic Airways Inc. (Republic)." |
| Partner | Inteligentes | "An important part of our strategy to expand our network has been to initiate or expand our commercial relationships with other airlines, such as by entering into global alliance, joint business and codeshare relationship…" |

Other companies that name AAL in their own reports (relationship from AAL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (EVTL) | 20-F 2026-03-24 | "As part of this approach, we have entered into arrangements with several commercial partners, or their permitted assigns, for multiple pre-orders and pre-order options for our aircraft, including with…" |
| partner | REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC. (RJET) | 10-K 2026-03-19 | "Republic Airways has maintained a partnership with American Airlines and its predecessors for more than 50 years, which Republic believes is a result of Republic's distinct focus on operational excell…" |
| supplier | SURF AIR MOBILITY INC. (SRFM) | 10-K 2026-03-12 | "Southern currently has interline agreements with major commercial airlines, including United Airlines, Inc., American Airlines, Inc., Alaska Airlines, Inc., Hawaiian Airlines, Inc, and Japan Airlines,…" |
| partner | SKYWEST INC (SKYW) | 10-K 2026-02-17 | "Our capacity purchase agreements with United, Delta, American and Alaska require the respective major airline partner to pay for fuel costs, either directly to the fuel vendor or to reimburse us for t…" |
| supplier | INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC (IA) | 10-K 2025-12-23 | "The Company's customers include the U.S. federal government (including the DoD, the Department of Interior and the Department of Homeland Security), Air Transport Services Group Inc. ("ATSG"), Amazon.…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger | $14.90B | 91.2% | +19.5% |
| — Passenger travel (part of Passenger) | $13.76B | 84.2% | +20.7% |
| — Other (part of Passenger) | $1.16B | 7.1% | +15.2% |
| Loyalty revenue - travel | $1.14B | 7.0% | +6.5% |
| Cargo | $274.0M | 1.7% | +29.2% |
| Total revenue | $16.34B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "Outlook and financial guidance In the fourth quarter, the company expects continued revenue strength, with year-over-year revenue growth between 19.5% and 22.5%."
- "Based on the forward fuel curve as of Oct. 19, American anticipates an average fuel price of approximately $4.70 per gallon, nearly double the price paid in the fourth quarter of 2025."
- "At that price, fuel expense is expected to increase approximately $2.8 billion versus the fourth quarter of 2025."
- "Given elevated fuel prices, American expects network growth in 2027 to slow from 2026 levels."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.64 | $0.61 | -205.8% | $16.70B | 14 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $-0.86 | $-0.27 | +222.8% | $15.56B | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.18 | $0.21 | -675.1% | $63.61B | 22 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.29 | $2.54 | -49.3% | $67.65B | 19 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 47.5% | ±5.7% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 48.1% | ±7.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 48.2% | ±9.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 48.6% | ±11.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 48.0% | ±12.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 38.3% | ±10.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 41.4% | ±13.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 45.3% | ±17.8% |