# Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AAOI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI), nexqual.com/AAOI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 68.07 (-11.96% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 77.32 · day 66.3–73.15 · 52w 18.5–233.67 · market cap $5.78B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $596M, net income -$57.0M (-9.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AAOI (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 28 Form 4 filings, $95.2M; 15 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($81.1M); 9 by opportunistic insiders (8 outside 10b5-1 plans), 9 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +116.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +807.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.14, revenue estimate $268M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $212M | $223M | $218M | $249M | $456M | $596M |
| Gross profit | $37.7M | $33.6M | $58.9M | $61.8M | $137M | — |
| Operating income | -$56.8M | -$59.0M | -$41.3M | -$70.9M | -$54.6M | -$67.4M |
| Net income | -$54.2M | -$66.4M | -$56.0M | -$187M | -$38.2M | -$57.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.01 | -$2.38 | -$1.75 | -$4.50 | -$0.64 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$19.6M | -$17.2M | -$17.0M | -$113M | -$354M | — |
| Gross margin | 17.8% | 15.1% | 27.1% | 24.8% | 30.0% | — |
| Operating margin | -26.8% | -26.5% | -19.0% | -28.4% | -12.0% | -11.3% |
| Net margin | -25.6% | -29.8% | -25.8% | -74.9% | -8.4% | -9.6% |
| Revenue growth | -9.8% | +5.3% | -2.3% | +14.6% | +82.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $34.7M | $24.7M | $45.4M | $67.4M | $206M | — |
| Total debt | $54.7M | $57.1M | $23.2M | $26.7M | $34.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 9.7x · EV/Sales 9.0x · P/B 3.5x · Earnings yield -0.99% · Net cash $441M · EV $5.34B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AAOI. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.02% | $2.9M | Added +29.2% |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $620K | Reduced -74.1% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
13 of 28 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Murry Stefan J. | Chief Financial Officer | 4,000 | $411K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted August 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-05 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 6,000 | $720K | 1.6% | Yes (adopted March 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-10 | Murry Stefan J. | Chief Financial Officer | 4,000 | $421K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted August 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-08 | Chang Hung-Lun (fred) | *** See Remarks | 32,172 | $3.5M | 11.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-18 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 6,000 | $886K | 1.6% | Yes (adopted March 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-10 | Murry Stefan J. | Chief Financial Officer | 4,000 | $579K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted August 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-04 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 4,715 | $596K | 1.2% | Yes (adopted March 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-21 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 1,285 | $154K | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 19, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-10 | Murry Stefan J. | Chief Financial Officer | 4,000 | $488K | 1% | Yes (adopted August 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-18 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 6,000 | $1.0M | 1.5% | Yes (adopted June 18, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-17 | Chang Hung-Lun (fred) | *** See Remarks | 40,329 | $6.9M | 12.4% | Yes (adopted March 18, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-12 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 28,826 | $4.8M | 6.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-12 | Murry Stefan J. | Chief Financial Officer | 33,000 | $5.5M | 7.9% | No | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-12 | Lin Chih-Hsiang (thompson) | President and CEO | 59,000 | $9.8M | 2.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-12 | Kuo David C | *** See Remarks | 29,227 | $4.9M | 16.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-12 | Chang Hung-Lun (fred) | *** See Remarks | 34,000 | $5.7M | 9.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-10 | Murry Stefan J. | Chief Financial Officer | 4,000 | $686K | 0.9% | Yes (adopted August 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-05 | Chang Hung-Lun (fred) | *** See Remarks | 4,000 | $800K | 1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-04 | Yeh Shu-Hua (joshua) | *** See Remarks | 10,000 | $2.1M | 2.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Chen Min-Chu (mike) | Director | 8,247 | $1.7M | 4.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Neutral | $109 → $92 |
| 2026-08-07 | Rosenblatt | Maintained | Buy | $220 |
| 2026-08-07 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $220 → $190 |
| 2026-07-22 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $260 → $220 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +116.8% | +807.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +117.4% | +55.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 138.7% | 107.2% |
| Max drawdown | -69.5% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -79.6% (Oct 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Communication Equipment)
VIAV (Viavi Solutions Inc.) USD 30.3 -14.38% · VSAT (ViaSat, Inc.) USD 59 -5.74% · BDC (Belden Inc) USD 103.46 -4.01% · ONDS (Ondas Inc) USD 6.02 -3.99% · EXTR (Extreme Networks, Inc.) USD 22.04 -2.22% · DGII (Digi International Inc.) USD 72.8 -3.32%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AAOI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AAOI's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Microsoft (MSFT) | "In 2025, our key customer in the internet data center market was Microsoft." |
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "On March 13, 2025, the Company issued a warrant (the "Customer Warrant") to a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amazon.com, Inc. to purchase up to an aggregate of 7,945,399 shares of the Company's common stock ("Warrant Shares"…" |
| Competitor | Intel (INTC) | "Our major competitors in one or more of our markets include Coherent Corporation, Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd., Foxconn Interconnect Technology Ltd., InnoLight Technology (Suzhou) Ltd., Intel Corporation, Lumentum Hol…" |
| Competitor | Lumentum (LITE) | "Our major competitors in one or more of our markets include Coherent Corporation, Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd., Foxconn Interconnect Technology Ltd., InnoLight Technology (Suzhou) Ltd., Intel Corporation, Lumentum Hol…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | $107.7M | 56.1% | +140.4% |
| CATV | $80.6M | 42.0% | +43.8% |
| Telecom | $3.4M | 1.8% | +75.8% |
| Product & Service Other | $271,000 | 0.1% | +34.2% |
| Total revenue | $191.9M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | $108.4M | 56.5% | +174.5% |
| China | $82.2M | 42.8% | +31.1% |
| United States | $1.3M | 0.7% | +66.7% |
| Total revenue | $191.9M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 42%, 26%, 24% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Business Outlook (+) For third quarter of 2026, the company currently expects: ·"
- "Conference Call Information The company will host a conference call and webcast for analysts and investors today, August 6, 2026 to discuss its second quarter 2026 financial results and outlook for its third quarter 2026 at 4:30 p.m."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.14 | $0.28 | -48.5% | $268.1M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.56 | $0.67 | -17.2% | $427.3M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.68 | $0.89 | -23.5% | $1.04B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $4.60 | $4.77 | -3.6% | $2.66B | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±20.6%; earnings reaction alone ±12.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±20.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 107.5% | ±12.6% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 129.4% | ±20.6% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 121.7% | ±23.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 112.2% | ±24.7% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 106.4% | ±26.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 103.7% | ±27.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 101.1% | ±31.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 99.0% | ±36.9% |