# Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AAP · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP), nexqual.com/AAP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 46.69 (+4.87% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 44.52 · day 44.48–46.78 · 52w 37.89–65.2 · market cap $2.82B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 18, 2026): revenue $8.62B, net income $84.0M (1.0% margin), free cash flow $23.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 33.6x (avg 93.7x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.3x, net debt $267M.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$107M vs operating income $236M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈16.2x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 16.3% effective rate).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AAP (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.12 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 49.95 (range 33–70).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -77.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.79, revenue estimate $2.04B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.0B | $9.15B | $9.21B | $9.09B | $8.60B | $8.62B |
| Gross profit | $4.92B | $4.23B | $3.86B | $3.41B | $3.73B | — |
| Operating income | $822M | $525M | $39.0M | -$713M | -$43.0M | $236M |
| Net income | $597M | $464M | $30.0M | -$336M | $44.0M | $84.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.25 | $7.65 | $0.50 | -$5.61 | $0.73 | — |
| Free cash flow | $817M | $338M | $61.0M | -$96.0M | -$298M | $23.0M |
| Gross margin | 44.8% | 46.3% | 41.9% | 37.5% | 43.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 7.5% | 5.7% | 0.4% | -7.8% | -0.5% | 2.7% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | 5.1% | 0.3% | -3.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Revenue growth | +8.8% | -16.8% | +0.7% | -1.2% | -5.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $588M | $271M | $488M | $1.87B | $3.12B | — |
| Total debt | $1.03B | $1.37B | $1.79B | $1.79B | $3.41B | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 18, 2026)
P/E 33.6x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈16.2x · P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 6.3x · EV/Sales 0.4x · P/FCF 122.6x · P/B 1.3x · FCF yield 0.82% · Earnings yield 2.98% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.13% · Net debt $267M · EV $3.09B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 66.1x, Dec 2023 121.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AAP. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Pzena | Pzena Investment Management | 0.80% | $273M | Added +2.1% |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 0.13% | $1.7M | Added +12.2% |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.12 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 49.95 (low 33, high 70).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $50 → $45 |
| 2026-08-21 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $57 → $45 |
| 2026-08-21 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Sell | $54 → $40 |
| 2026-08-21 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $62 → $43 |
| 2026-08-21 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $65 → $55 |
| 2026-08-21 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $65 → $47 |
| 2026-08-21 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $59 → $50 |
| 2026-08-21 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $60 → $50 |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $65 → $52 |
| 2026-08-21 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $61 → $45 |
| 2026-08-21 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $67 → $52 |
| 2026-08-21 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Neutral | $58 → $48 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.3% | -77.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -13.4% | -25.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.9% | 55.1% |
| Max drawdown | -38.3% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -86.0% (Dec 2021→May 2025) |

## Peers (Auto Parts)
ATMU (Atmus Filtration Technologies I) USD 44.75 -0.73% · DORM (Dorman Products, Inc.) USD 127.49 +3.34% · GTX (Garrett Motion Inc.) USD 22 -8.07% · GNTX (Gentex Corporation) USD 21.74 +3.52% · LKQ (LKQ Corporation) USD 22.47 +5.10% · LEA (Lear Corporation) USD 118.61 +0.61%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AAP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2026-01-03)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $8.31B | 96.6% | -5.6% |
| Canada | $292.0M | 3.4% | -0.7% |
| Total revenue | $8.60B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.79 | $0.86 | -8.7% | $2.04B | 22 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.44 | $0.54 | -17.4% | $1.87B | 21 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.99 | $2.94 | +1.7% | $8.53B | 24 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.89 | $4.01 | -2.9% | $8.72B | 23 |