# Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ABR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR), nexqual.com/ABR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 2.96 (+2.07% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 2.9 · day 2.86–3.04 · 52w 2.53–11.95 · market cap $600M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $479M, net income $59.0M (12.3% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 10.2x (avg 9.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $10.8B.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ABR (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $202K; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($202K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $393K; 1 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Sell (mean 3.80 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 3.25 (range 3–3.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -71.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -73.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-30, EPS estimate USD 0.05, revenue estimate $48.6M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $587M | $619M | $721M | $622M | $510M | $479M |
| Operating income | $424M | $371M | $428M | $297M | $177M | — |
| Net income | $378M | $354M | $401M | $284M | $158M | $59.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.28 | $1.67 | $1.75 | $1.18 | $0.56 | — |
| Operating margin | 72.2% | 60.0% | 59.3% | 47.8% | 34.6% | — |
| Net margin | 64.3% | 57.2% | 55.6% | 45.6% | 30.9% | 12.3% |
| Revenue growth | +35.1% | +5.4% | +16.5% | -13.7% | -18.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $405M | $534M | $929M | $504M | $483M | — |
| Total debt | $12.1B | $280M | $12.0B | $9.96B | $11.1B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 10.2x · P/S 1.3x · EV/Sales 23.9x · P/B 0.2x · Earnings yield 9.83% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 44.38% · Buyback yield (TTM) 8.93% · Net debt $10.8B · EV $11.4B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.3x, Dec 2024 10.0x, Dec 2023 8.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold ABR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Miller | Miller Value Partners | 0.78% | $3.3M | Added +1.2% |
| Leon Cooperman | Omega Family Office | 0.25% | $9.0M | Added +6.7% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Natalone John | EVP | 375,000 | $0K | 10% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-04 | Tsunis George | Director | 26,700 | $149K | 44% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Friedman David Erwin | CCO & Head of Non-Agcy Prod | 7,685 | $53K | 10.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
7 purchases, $393K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Green William C | Director | 25,951 | $132K | 5.07 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-04 | Tsunis George | Director | 26,700 | $149K | 5.58 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Tsunis George | Director | 1,000 | $5K | 5.48 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26 | Tsunis George | Director | 1,000 | $6K | 5.5 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-19 | Tsunis George | Director | 3,500 | $21K | 5.86 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-14 | Tsunis George | Director | 3,510 | $20K | 5.83 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Friedman David Erwin | CCO & Head of Non-Agcy Prod | 8,840 | $60K | 6.84 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |

## Analysts
Consensus Sell (mean 3.80 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 3.25 (low 3, high 3.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Underperform | $5 → $3 |
| 2026-10-09 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Underweight | $5 → $3.5 |
| 2026-09-29 | Citizens | Downgrade | Market Outperform → Market Perform |  |
| 2026-08-03 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Underweight | $5.5 → $5 |
| 2026-08-03 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Underperform | $5.5 → $5 |
| 2026-07-17 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Underweight → Neutral | $7 → $5.5 |
| 2026-07-02 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Underweight | $8 → $5.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -71.0% | -73.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -71.2% | -23.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.3% | 38.8% |
| Max drawdown | -75.0% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -78.0% (Sep 2024→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) USD 5.52 +1.85% · PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr) USD 7.01 +2.49% · MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.) USD 6.62 +2.32% · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.25 +3.82% · ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) USD 7.73 +3.90% · CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) USD 8.45 +2.55%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ABR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.05 | $0.08 | -42.5% | $48.6M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.05 | $0.11 | -56.6% | $48.1M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.23 | $0.28 | -16.7% | $209.6M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.45 | $0.61 | -26.4% | $217.7M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-30): ±10.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 56.2% | ±10.6% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 108.9% | ±22.2% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 71.7% | ±17.1% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 86.3% | ±38.4% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 97.9% | ±25.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 68.3% | ±22.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 91.6% | ±33.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 82.0% | ±44.4% |