# Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ACGL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL), nexqual.com/ACGL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 102.69 (+2.40% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 100.28 · day 100.39–103.84 · 52w 82.45–107.09 · market cap $35.0B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $19.2B, net income $4.69B (24.4% margin), free cash flow $6.05B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.5x (avg 7.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $3.18B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $1.2M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.2M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $499K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 110.13 (range 95–131).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +17.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +149.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 2.3, revenue estimate $3.79B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.25B | $9.61B | $13.6B | $17.4B | $19.9B | $19.2B |
| Net income | $2.16B | $1.48B | $4.44B | $4.31B | $4.40B | $4.69B |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.23 | $3.80 | $11.62 | $11.19 | $11.60 | — |
| Free cash flow | $3.38B | $3.77B | $5.70B | $6.62B | $6.13B | $6.05B |
| Net margin | 23.3% | 15.4% | 32.6% | 24.7% | 22.1% | 24.4% |
| Revenue growth | +8.7% | +3.9% | +41.8% | +27.9% | +14.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $859M | $855M | $917M | $979M | $993M | — |
| Total debt | $2.72B | $2.73B | $2.73B | $2.73B | $2.73B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 7.5x · P/S 1.8x · EV/Sales 2.0x · P/FCF 5.8x · P/B 1.5x · FCF yield 17.28% · Earnings yield 13.39% · Buyback yield (TTM) 9.93% · Net debt $3.18B · EV $38.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.2x, Dec 2024 8.2x, Dec 2023 6.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Morin Francois | CFO and Treasurer | 11,010 | $1.1M | 3.6% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-03 | Posner Brian S | Director | 3,000 | $59K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-11 | Posner Brian S | Director | 2,000 | $34K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $499K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Houston Daniel Joseph | Director | 5,300 | $499K | 94.08 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 110.13 (low 95, high 131).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $105 → $100 |
| 2026-10-12 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $117 → $107 |
| 2026-10-12 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Market Perform | $99 → $95 |
| 2026-10-09 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $118 → $113 |
| 2026-10-07 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target lowered | Neutral | $110 → $105 |
| 2026-10-06 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $111 → $105 |
| 2026-09-16 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $104 → $100 |
| 2026-08-11 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $116 → $118 |
| 2026-08-11 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintained | Market Perform | $99 |
| 2026-08-05 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $95 → $102 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Neutral | $102 → $110 |
| 2026-08-03 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $110 → $111 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +17.4% | +149.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +17.5% | +20.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 20.5% | 22.6% |
| Max drawdown | -14.1% (Feb 2026→Jun 2026) | -21.0% (Sep 2024→Oct 2025) |

## Peers (Insurance - Diversified)
HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group, I) USD 139.45 +2.67% · AIG (American International Group, I) USD 83.03 +1.57% · SLF (Sun Life Financial Inc.) USD 80.81 +0.12% · AEG (Aegon Ltd. New York Registry Sh) USD 8.21 -2.15% · BNT (Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd) USD 38.26 +2.05% · PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit) USD 26.21 +2.26%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ACGL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "The Company expects to use the net proceeds from this offering to repay its 4.011% senior notes due in 2026, fund purchases from the cash tender offers described below, and for general corporate purposes."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.30 | $1.84 | +25.4% | $3.79B | 19 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.48 | $2.48 | -0.2% | $3.52B | 18 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $9.80 | $9.28 | +5.6% | $15.78B | 20 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $9.80 | $9.81 | -0.0% | $15.77B | 20 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±6.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 27.2% | ±6.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 24.1% | ±7.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 22.9% | ±11.8% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 23.8% | ±15.5% |