# Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ADC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC), nexqual.com/ADC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 67.07 (+4.00% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 64.49 · day 64.83–67.29 · 52w 64.34–82.08 · market cap $8.37B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $810M, net income $241M (29.8% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 34.7x (avg 37.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $7.1M; 3 by opportunistic insiders, 4 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.35 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 78.53 (range 72–93).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -6.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +18.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-20, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $223M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $339M | $430M | $537M | $617M | $718M | $810M |
| Operating income | $190M | $218M | $254M | $302M | $340M | $396M |
| Net income | $122M | $152M | $170M | $189M | $204M | $241M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.78 | $1.83 | $1.70 | $1.78 | $1.77 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$1.14B | -$1.24B | -$808M | -$443M | — | — |
| Operating margin | 56.1% | 50.7% | 47.3% | 49.0% | 47.4% | 48.9% |
| Net margin | 36.0% | 35.5% | 31.6% | 30.7% | 28.4% | 29.8% |
| Revenue growth | +36.5% | +26.7% | +25.1% | +14.8% | +16.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $43.3M | $27.8M | $10.9M | $6.4M | $16.3M | — |
| Total debt | $1.69B | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 34.7x · P/S 10.3x · P/B 1.2x · Earnings yield 2.88% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.54% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.07%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 39.2x, Dec 2024 37.9x, Dec 2023 35.3x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
9 purchases, $7.1M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Erlich Craig | CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER | 1,000 | $68K | 67.55 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-09-16 | Rakolta John Jr | Director | 20,000 | $1.4M | 68.78 | Routine (bought in Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-16 | Agree Joey | PRESIDENT & CEO | 7,360 | $501K | 68.06 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-31 | Rakolta John Jr | Director | 10,000 | $724K | 72.42 | Routine (bought in Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-27…2026-08-28 | Rakolta John Jr | Director | 20,136 | $1.5M | 73.23 | Routine (bought in Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-04 | Agree Richard | EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF BOARD | 5,000 | $357K | 71.41 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Rakolta John Jr | Director | 20,000 | $1.5M | 74.57 | Routine (bought in Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-14 | Lehmkuhl Greg | Director | 750 | $56K | 75.09 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-14 | Agree Joey | PRESIDENT & CEO | 13,295 | $1.0M | 75.41 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.35 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 78.53 (low 72, high 93).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | BNP Paribas | Target lowered | Neutral | $84 → $74 |
| 2026-10-21 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $81.5 → $76.5 |
| 2026-10-21 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $77 → $76 |
| 2026-10-20 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $85 → $76 |
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $83 → $79 |
| 2026-09-21 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $87 → $85 |
| 2026-09-18 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $84 → $81.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $80 → $72 |
| 2026-07-22 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $84 → $85 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -6.8% | +18.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -6.9% | +3.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| Max drawdown | -19.6% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -28.2% (Jul 2022→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (REIT - Retail)
BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) USD 28.26 +3.06% · NNN (NNN REIT, Inc.) USD 42.13 +3.46% · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) USD 108.88 +2.94% · MAC (Macerich Company (The)) USD 23.95 +3.10% · EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Tru) USD 26.26 +5.50% · PECO (Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.) USD 38.29 +2.74%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ADC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "Guidance to $4.58 to $4.59 Balance Sheet Fortified with Approximately $2.0 Billion of Liquidity Royal Oak, MI, October 20, 2026 -- Agree Realty Corporation (NYSE: ADC) (the "Company") today announced results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.47 | $0.48 | -1.8% | $222.7M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.48 | $0.49 | -2.3% | $227.4M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.92 | $1.93 | -0.4% | $842.8M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.90 | $1.93 | -1.7% | $956.8M | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 21.6% | ±5.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 24.5% | ±7.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 21.1% | ±8.2% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 20.2% | ±11.1% |