# ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ADTN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN), nexqual.com/ADTN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.45 (-3.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 6.69 · day 6.4–6.6 · 52w 6.29–19.98 · market cap $526M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.14B, net income -$26.1M (-2.3% margin), free cash flow $56.9M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ADTN (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $2.4M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($137K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $50K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -33.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -62.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD 0.04, revenue estimate $286M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $563M | $1.03B | $1.15B | $923M | $1.08B | $1.14B |
| Gross profit | $218M | $327M | $331M | $324M | $415M | — |
| Operating income | -$14.7M | -$72.8M | -$224M | -$428M | -$15.6M | -$2.0M |
| Net income | -$8.6M | -$2.0M | -$269M | -$460M | -$45.7M | -$26.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.18 | -$0.03 | -$3.43 | -$5.79 | -$0.52 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$2.7M | -$61.3M | -$79.4M | $69.1M | $98.0M | $56.9M |
| Gross margin | 38.8% | 31.9% | 28.8% | 35.1% | 38.3% | — |
| Operating margin | -2.6% | -7.1% | -19.5% | -46.3% | -1.4% | -0.2% |
| Net margin | -1.5% | -0.2% | -23.4% | -49.8% | -4.2% | -2.3% |
| Revenue growth | +11.2% | +82.2% | +12.0% | -19.7% | +17.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $57.0M | $109M | $87.2M | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | $193M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 10.1x · EV/Sales 0.6x · P/FCF 9.2x · P/B 4.1x · FCF yield 10.83% · Earnings yield -4.96% · Net debt $115M · EV $640M

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold ADTN. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $17.4M | Reduced -8.8% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $977K | Reduced -7.1% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Wilson James Denson Jr | Chief Revenue Officer | 9,332 | $137K | 6.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-07…2026-05-08 | Glingener Christoph | Chief Technology Officer | 148,392 | $2.2M | 76.1% | Yes (adopted December 12, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $50K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Santo Timothy P | SVP of Finance; CFO | 6,579 | $50K | 7.6 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $18 → $11 |
| 2026-08-05 | Rosenblatt | Target lowered | Buy | $20 → $15 |
| 2026-07-23 | B. Riley Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $23 → $21 |
| 2026-07-23 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $18 → $14 |
| 2026-07-23 | Rosenblatt | Maintained | Buy | $20 |
| 2026-07-22 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $18 → $14 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -33.9% | -62.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -34.0% | -17.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 68.6% | 54.0% |
| Max drawdown | -67.5% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -81.8% (Aug 2022→Apr 2024) |

## Peers (Communication Equipment)
GILT (Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.) USD 7.45 -5.34% · NTGR (NETGEAR, Inc.) USD 22.31 -1.98% · FEIM (Frequency Electronics, Inc.) USD 61.6 -9.66% · CLFD (Clearfield, Inc.) USD 27.5 -5.69% · HLIT (Harmonic Inc.) USD 10.09 -5.96% · VISN (Vistance Networks, Inc.) USD 6.08 -0.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ADTN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ADTN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526073878/adtn-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | Cisco (CSCO) | "Main competitors of our Optical Networking solutions portfolio are Ciena, Cisco, Ekinops, Nokia, Smartoptics and Ribbon Communications." |

Other companies that name ADTN in their own reports (relationship from ADTN's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | Ribbon Communications Inc. (RBBN) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "Further, consolidation has also occurred in the telecommunications supplier and vendor space, including the acquisition by Alianza of the Metaswitch business held by Microsoft (2024), the acquisition …" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Network Solutions | $232.9M | 82.8% | +6.1% |
| Services & Support | $48.2M | 17.2% | +5.9% |
| Total revenue | $281.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optical Networking Solutions | $87.2M | 31.0% | +30.9% |
| Subscriber Solutions | $73.5M | 26.2% | -2.6% |
| Access Aggregation Solutions | $72.1M | 25.7% | -6.7% |
| Total revenue | $281.1M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 82.8% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $134.4M | 47.8% | +11.7% |
| Other International | $60.6M | 21.6% | +5.8% |
| Germany | $48.4M | 17.2% | +55.2% |
| United Kingdom | $37.7M | 13.4% | -33.0% |
| Total revenue | $281.1M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 14.2% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-26).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "We remain committed to our long-term operating model and remain confident that our strategy will deliver long-term shareholder value." Business outlook 1 For the third quarter of 2026, the Company expects revenue to be within a range of $275.0 million to $295.0 million."
- "Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be within a range of 1.5% to 5.5%. 1 Non-GAAP operating margin (which is calculated as non-GAAP operating income (loss) divided by revenue) is a non-GAAP financial measure."
- "The Company has provided guidance for its third quarter 2026 non-GAAP operating margin."

Analysts expect $285.7M for the current quarter, +0.3% vs the guidance midpoint $285.0M. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926282/000119312526331458/adtn-ex99_1.htm

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.04 | $0.15 | -76.1% | $285.7M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.07 | $0.16 | -53.7% | $292.9M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.29 | $0.57 | -49.7% | $1.15B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.58 | $0.76 | -23.3% | $1.24B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-02): ±20.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 89.1% | ±20.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 80.4% | ±25.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 74.8% | ±28.9% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 76.4% | ±34.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 77.5% | ±45.7% |