# American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AEO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO), nexqual.com/AEO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 17.89 (+2.93% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 17.38 · day 17.17–17.93 · 52w 14.1–28.46 · market cap $3.00B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 1, 2026): revenue $5.75B, net income $337M (5.9% margin), free cash flow $343M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.9x (avg 18.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $426K; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($327K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.07 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 18.6 (range 15–27).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +10.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -15.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-12-01, EPS estimate USD 0.51, revenue estimate $1.45B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.01B | $4.99B | $5.26B | $5.33B | $5.55B | $5.75B |
| Gross profit | $1.99B | $1.75B | $2.02B | $2.09B | $2.03B | — |
| Operating income | $591M | $247M | $223M | $427M | $226M | $448M |
| Net income | $420M | $125M | $170M | $329M | $192M | $337M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.03 | $0.64 | $0.86 | $1.68 | $1.09 | — |
| Free cash flow | $69.8M | $146M | $406M | $254M | $195M | $343M |
| Gross margin | 39.8% | 35.0% | 38.5% | 39.2% | 36.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 11.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 5.9% |
| Revenue growth | +33.3% | -0.4% | +5.4% | +1.3% | +4.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $435M | $170M | $454M | $359M | $239M | — |
| Total debt | $341M | $8.9M | $0K | $0K | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 1, 2026)
P/E 8.9x · P/S 0.5x · P/FCF 8.7x · P/B 1.7x · FCF yield 11.46% · Earnings yield 11.24% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.81% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.64%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 21.4x, Feb 2025 7.8x, Feb 2024 27.5x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 7 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | McMillan Cary D | Director | 3,617 | $66K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-02 | Spiegel Noel Joseph | Director | 3,617 | $64K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-17 | Sable David M. | Director | 5,779 | $100K | 9.8% | Yes (adopted March 6, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-07 | McMillan Cary D | Director | 2,892 | $49K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-07 | Spiegel Noel Joseph | Director | 2,892 | $49K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-06 | McMillan Cary D | Director | 2,887 | $50K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-06 | Spiegel Noel Joseph | Director | 2,887 | $50K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.07 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 18.6 (low 15, high 27).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Wolfe Research | Initiated | Peer Perform |  |
| 2026-09-29 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $18 → $20 |
| 2026-09-11 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $17 → $15 |
| 2026-09-10 | Telsey Advisory Group | Target lowered | Market Perform | $20 → $18 |
| 2026-09-10 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $18 → $17 |
| 2026-09-10 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $31 → $27 |
| 2026-09-09 | BMO Capital | Initiated | Market Perform | $18 |
| 2026-08-18 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $19 → $21 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +10.8% | -15.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +10.9% | -3.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| Max drawdown | -47.5% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) | -62.7% (Nov 2021→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Apparel Retail)
BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) USD 119.76 +3.16% · BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) USD 47.48 +3.17% · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) USD 161.49 +1.16% · VSXY (Victorias Secret & Co.) USD 88.42 -0.82% · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) USD 33.93 +4.46% · URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) USD 88.29 +1.53%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AEO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-08-01)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Eagle Brand | $805.9M | 58.4% | +0.7% |
| Aerie Brand | $535.8M | 38.8% | +24.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.38B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 97.2% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-08-01)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.15B | 83.1% | +5.8% |
| Non Us | $233.3M | 16.9% | +16.7% |
| Total revenue | $1.38B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $0.51 | $0.54 | -5.5% | $1.45B | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $0.84 | $0.85 | -0.8% | $1.83B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-01-31) | $2.28 | $1.71 | +33.1% | $5.86B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-01-31) | $1.90 | $1.82 | +4.2% | $6.07B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-04 (includes earnings 2026-12-01): ±15.7%; earnings reaction alone ±8.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±12.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 49.2% | ±5.9% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 45.6% | ±7.4% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 45.4% | ±8.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 49.4% | ±11.2% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 49.5% | ±12.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 57.5% | ±15.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 57.3% | ±18.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 54.0% | ±20.8% |