# AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AER · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER), nexqual.com/AER" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 147.68 (-0.13% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 147.87 · day 144.28–148.15 · 52w 119.91–158.81 · market cap $23.2B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $21.1M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($21.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.90 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 179.8 (range 165–190).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +23.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +134.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 4.52, revenue estimate $2.15B.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Forst Rita | Director | 2,000 | $311K | 21.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-15 | Stuart Cormac | Chief Accounting Officer | 11,644 | $1.7M | 46% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-12 | Juhas Peter | Chief Financial Officer | 76,000 | $11.0M | 16.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-07 | Drouillard Vincent | General Counsel | 4,504 | $676K | 2.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelly Aengus | Chief Executive Officer | 50,000 | $7.4M | 0.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.90 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 179.8 (low 165, high 190).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $180 → $185 |
| 2026-07-30 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $173 → $178 |
| 2026-07-30 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $155 → $165 |
| 2026-07-30 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $175 → $180 |
| 2026-07-20 | Citigroup | Initiated | Buy | $173 |
| 2026-07-16 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $175 → $180 |
| 2026-07-08 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $161 → $175 |
| 2026-07-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $164 → $179 |
| 2026-07-07 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $170 → $176 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +23.4% | +134.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +23.5% | +18.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 26.8% | 30.8% |
| Max drawdown | -14.8% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -42.5% (Jan 2022→Jul 2022) |

## Peers (Rental & Leasing Services)
SUNB (Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.) USD 78.87 +0.47% · UHAL (U-Haul Holding Company) USD 56.8 +1.87% · R (Ryder System, Inc.) USD 265.53 +10.49% · URI (United Rentals, Inc.) USD 1,111.02 +3.93% · GATX (GATX Corporation) USD 167.5 +1.95% · HRI (Herc Holdings Inc.) USD 133.55 +1.38%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AER · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AER's own 20-F filed 2026-02-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "AerCap Cargo's largest customers are Kalitta Air and Amazon." |
| Customer | GE Aerospace (GE) | "We have longstanding relationships and contractual commitments with approximately 150 customers, including the two largest manufacturers of commercial aviation engines, GE Aerospace and CFMI, to which we provide spare en…" |
| Customer | Saudi Aramco | "Milestone's largest customers are CHC Helicopter, Bristow Helicopters, Saudi Aramco, and Omni Helicopters International." |
| Partner | Airbus | "Additionally, new manufacturers may develop a narrowbody aircraft that competes with established aircraft types from Airbus, Boeing and Embraer, putting downward price pressure on, and decreasing the marketability of, ai…" |
| Partner | AerCap Ireland | "Also, to perform some of our cash management services and insurance services from Ireland under our management arrangements with our joint ventures and securitization entities, we are required to have a license from the …" |
| Competitor | Boeing (BA) | "Additionally, new manufacturers may develop a narrowbody aircraft that competes with established aircraft types from Airbus, Boeing and Embraer, putting downward price pressure on, and decreasing the marketability of, ai…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $4.52 | $3.95 | +14.5% | $2.15B | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.07 | $3.84 | +5.9% | $2.06B | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $19.00 | $17.31 | +9.8% | $8.63B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $18.22 | $17.11 | +6.5% | $8.41B | 9 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±6.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 28.5% | ±6.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 24.5% | ±7.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 24.2% | ±9.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 24.9% | ±13.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 25.7% | ±15.6% |
| 2027-08-20 | 301 | 25.7% | ±18.7% |
| 2027-11-19 | 392 | 25.5% | ±21.1% |