# Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AESI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI), nexqual.com/AESI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 8.6 (-8.41% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 9.39 · day 8.45–9.55 · 52w 7.64–20.13 · market cap $1.07B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.07B, net income -$118M (-11.1% margin), free cash flow -$184M (SEC filings).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.31 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 17.54 (range 11–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -18.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -40.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD -0.24, revenue estimate $264M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $172M | $483M | $614M | $1.06B | $1.10B | $1.07B |
| Gross profit | $64.1M | $256M | $314M | $232M | $151M | — |
| Operating income | $47.0M | $232M | $265M | $114M | -$10.9M | -$88.5M |
| Net income | $4.3M | $217M | $105M | $59.9M | -$50.3M | -$118M |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | $1.48 | $0.55 | -$0.41 | — |
| Free cash flow | $2.0M | $116M | -$66.5M | -$118M | -$30.9M | -$184M |
| Gross margin | 37.2% | 53.1% | 51.1% | 22.0% | 13.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 27.3% | 48.1% | 43.2% | 10.8% | -1.0% | -8.3% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | 45.0% | 17.2% | 5.7% | -4.6% | -11.1% |
| Revenue growth | — | +180.0% | +27.2% | +72.0% | +3.7% | — |
| Total debt | — | $149M | $180M | $511M | $604M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.0x · P/B 1.0x · FCF yield -17.14% · Earnings yield -11.02%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 40.4x, Dec 2023 11.6x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.31 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 17.54 (low 11, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $14 → $13 |
| 2026-10-05 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $22 → $20 |
| 2026-09-29 | Scotiabank | Initiated | Sector Outperform |  |
| 2026-09-28 | Barclays | Upgrade | Underweight → Equal-Weight | $10 → $14 |
| 2026-09-03 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $17 |
| 2026-08-27 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $19 → $15 |
| 2026-08-07 | Barclays | Target lowered | Underweight | $14 → $10 |
| 2026-08-06 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $28 → $25 |
| 2026-08-05 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $21 → $17 |
| 2026-07-16 | Barclays | Target lowered | Underweight | $16 → $14 |
| 2026-07-15 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $22 → $21 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2023-03-06) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -18.8% | -40.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -18.9% | -13.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 66.9% | 51.9% |
| Max drawdown | -56.5% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -64.5% (Jan 2025→Nov 2025) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas Equipment & Services)
VTOL (Bristow Group, Inc.) USD 38.03 -1.32% · FET (Forum Energy Technologies, Inc.) USD 81.56 -5.96% · PUMP (ProPetro Holding Corp.) USD 7.22 -5.62% · RES (RPC, Inc.) USD 6.02 -4.75% · FTK (Flotek Industries, Inc.) USD 23.2 -7.57% · NEXT (NextDecade Corporation) USD 5.91 -2.31%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AESI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AESI's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1984060/000119312526067145/aesi-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Hi-Crush | "The Hi-Crush Transaction expanded the Company's position as a leading provider of proppant and proppant logistics in the Permian Basin to meet the needs of our large-scale customers in the Permian Basin." |
| Partner | General | "On March 1, 2024, the Company entered into a pooling agreement with the General Land Office of Texas ("GLO") that establishes a pooled unit across our fee owned lands and leased lands at the K1/K2 property." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sand Logistics | $263.9M | 90.0% | -3.2% |
| Power | $29.3M | 10.0% | +83.1% |
| Total revenue | $293.2M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service | $162.7M | 55.5% | +11.1% |
| Product | $103.5M | 35.3% | -18.2% |
| Rental Revenue | $27.0M | 9.2% | +71.6% |
| Total revenue | $293.2M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 16%, 11.2% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-24).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-03)

- "Our oilfield power division continues to scale and we expect 180 to 200 MWs deployed by the end of this year."
- "In the second quarter we signed our first long-term behind-the-meter contract, for 120 MWs expected to come online at the end of the first quarter of 2027, and we put mobile power on that site immediately to keep the customer running through construction."
- "I could not be more excited about the opportunities we are currently working on and sharing more information about those projects in the not-so-distant future when able." Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Second quarter 2026 total revenue increased $27.7 million, or 10.4% when compared to the first quarter of 2026, to $293.2 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.24 | $-0.06 | +284.0% | $264.5M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.17 | $-0.06 | +200.0% | $285.4M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.84 | $-0.49 | +71.8% | $1.11B | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.01 | $0.38 | -98.3% | $1.31B | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-02): ±21.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 88.6% | ±21.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 79.4% | ±27.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 78.8% | ±30.5% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 75.5% | ±40.1% |