# American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AFG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG), nexqual.com/AFG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 153.46 (+2.53% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 149.68 · day 149.93–153.63 · 52w 123.09–153.63 · market cap $12.7B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $8.28B, net income $953M (11.5% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.4x (avg 12.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.1x, net debt $383M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $15.6M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($15.6M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.71 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 154.5 (range 143–170).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +21.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +60.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 3.81, revenue estimate $2.07B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.55B | $7.04B | $7.83B | $8.32B | $8.17B | $8.28B |
| Operating income | $1.33B | $1.12B | $1.07B | $1.12B | $1.07B | $1.20B |
| Net income | $2.00B | $898M | $852M | $887M | $842M | $953M |
| EPS (diluted) | $23.30 | $10.53 | $10.05 | $10.57 | $10.08 | — |
| Operating margin | 20.4% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 14.5% |
| Net margin | 30.4% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% |
| Revenue growth | +13.6% | +7.4% | +11.2% | +6.3% | -1.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $2.13B | $872M | $1.23B | $1.41B | $1.73B | — |
| Total debt | $1.96B | $1.50B | $1.48B | $1.48B | $1.82B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 13.4x · P/S 1.5x · EV/EBITDA 10.1x · EV/Sales 1.6x · P/B 2.6x · Earnings yield 7.49% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.53% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.69% · Net debt $383M · EV $13.1B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 13.6x, Dec 2024 13.0x, Dec 2023 11.8x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Von Lehman John I | Director | 1,279 | $184K | 9.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-09-02 | Hertzman Brian S. | SVP, CFO | 950 | $136K | 5.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-24…2026-08-26 | Lindner Carl H Iii | Co-CEO | 90,000 | $13.0M | 1.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-06 | Weiss Mark A | Sr. VP & General Counsel | 2,813 | $407K | 13.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-24 | Gillis Michelle A | Senior Vice President | 2,247 | $312K | 3.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-23 | Thompson David Lawrence Jr | President of Subsidiary | 11,370 | $1.5M | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.71 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 154.5 (low 143, high 170).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $175 → $166 |
| 2026-10-12 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Market Perform | $153 → $147 |
| 2026-08-11 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $148 → $153 |
| 2026-08-10 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $140 → $156 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $158 → $173 |
| 2026-07-08 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $140 → $148 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +21.0% | +60.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +21.1% | +9.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 17.9% | 21.0% |
| Max drawdown | -10.4% (Nov 2025→Mar 2026) | -21.8% (Oct 2022→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Insurance - Property & Casualty)
CNA (CNA Financial Corporation) USD 49.39 +2.21% · AIZ (Assurant, Inc.) USD 288.85 +1.60% · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) USD 40.08 -0.12% · KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.) USD 390.64 +3.70% · THG (Hanover Insurance Group Inc) USD 239.59 +3.30% · L (Loews Corporation) USD 113.68 +1.75%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AFG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better."
- "Subject to receipt of necessary third-party approvals and satisfaction of customary closing conditions, the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026."
- "AFG currently expects to recognize a pretax core operating gain of approximately $125 million on the sale."
- "The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.81 | $3.17 | +20.2% | $2.07B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.45 | $3.51 | -1.6% | $1.86B | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $12.58 | $11.60 | +8.5% | $7.23B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $12.11 | $12.06 | +0.4% | $7.66B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±5.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 23.9% | ±5.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 21.3% | ±6.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 20.4% | ±10.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 20.6% | ±13.2% |