# Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AFRM · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), nexqual.com/AFRM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 72.4 (-1.51% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 73.51 · day 71.4–74.71 · 52w 42.1–90.44 · market cap $24.4B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.26B, net income $1.93B (45.3% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 12.7x (avg 233.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AFRM (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $32.2M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.8M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.03 on a 1–5 scale) (34 analysts), mean target USD 98.59 (range 66–115).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -4.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -53.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.86, revenue estimate $1.21B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.35B | $1.59B | $2.32B | $3.22B | $4.26B | $4.26B |
| Operating income | -$866M | -$1.20B | -$616M | -$87.3M | $417M | $417M |
| Net income | -$707M | -$985M | -$518M | $52.2M | $1.93B | $1.93B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.51 | -$3.34 | -$1.67 | $0.15 | $5.53 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$248M | -$109M | $291M | $602M | $993M | $993M |
| Operating margin | -64.2% | -75.6% | -26.5% | -2.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Net margin | -52.4% | -62.1% | -22.3% | 1.6% | 45.3% | 45.3% |
| Revenue growth | +55.0% | +17.7% | +46.3% | +38.8% | +32.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.26B | $892M | $1.01B | $1.35B | $1.63B | — |
| Total debt | — | — | $1.84B | $7.61B | $9.79B | — |
Fiscal years end Jun. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 12.7x · P/S 5.7x · P/FCF 24.6x · P/B 4.5x · FCF yield 4.06% · Earnings yield 7.90%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jun 2026 14.7x, Jun 2025 451.8x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AFRM. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 3.51% | $361M | Reduced -21.7% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $731K | Added +88.1% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
8 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | O'Hare Robert | Chief Financial Officer | 65,591 | $5.2M | 96% | Yes (adopted May 21, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-14 | Jiyane Siphelele | Chief Accounting Officer | 26,980 | $1.9M | 12.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-04 | Jiyane Siphelele | Chief Accounting Officer | 25,000 | $1.8M | 10.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-01…2026-09-03 | Adkins Katherine | Chief Legal Officer | 83,328 | $6.1M | 35.3% | Yes (adopted June 2, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-01…2026-09-02 | O'Hare Robert | Chief Financial Officer | 21,631 | $1.6M | 88.8% | Yes (adopted May 21, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-28 | Linford Michael | Chief Operating Officer | 79,219 | $7.1M | 39.6% | Yes (adopted December 9, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-12 | Watson Noel Bertram | Director | 2,000 | $156K | 5.5% | Yes (adopted December 2, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-26 | Linford Michael | Chief Operating Officer | 100,000 | $8.0M | 45.9% | Yes (adopted December 9, 2025) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-13 | Watson Noel Bertram | Director | 2,000 | $130K | 5.3% | Yes (adopted December 2, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-14 | Watson Noel Bertram | Director | 2,000 | $110K | 5% | Yes (adopted December 2, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.03 on a 1–5 scale), 34 analysts; mean target USD 98.59 (low 66, high 115).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $115 → $103 |
| 2026-10-06 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $124 → $110 |
| 2026-10-01 | Freedom Capital Markets | Maintained | Buy | $105 |
| 2026-09-16 | Citizens | Reiterated | Market Outperform | $85 |
| 2026-09-14 | Wolfe Research | Upgrade | Peer Perform → Outperform | $90 |
| 2026-09-09 | Loop Capital | Initiated | Buy | $105 |
| 2026-09-03 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $83 → $85 |
| 2026-09-02 | Scotiabank | Initiated | Sector Outperform | $95 |
| 2026-08-31 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $106 → $115 |
| 2026-08-31 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $100 → $110 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Overweight | $88 → $97 |
| 2026-08-28 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $82 → $90 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -4.2% | -53.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -4.2% | -14.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 59.3% | 85.9% |
| Max drawdown | -48.8% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -94.5% (Nov 2021→Jan 2023) |

## Peers (Credit Services)
SYF (Synchrony Financial) USD 75.09 +1.32% · SOFI (SoFi Technologies, Inc.) USD 14.77 -0.87% · PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.) USD 57.54 +0.59% · ALLY (Ally Financial Inc.) USD 39.31 +1.60% · FCFS (FirstCash Holdings, Inc.) USD 184.78 -14.75% · OMF (OneMain Holdings, Inc.) USD 57.11 +0.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AFRM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AFRM's own 10-K filed 2026-08-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Shopify (SHOP) | "The loss of, or decrease in business with, any one of our significant commercial partner relationships, such as with Amazon or Shopify, would adversely affect our business." |
| Partner | Federal Deposit Insurance | "Through the Affirm App and in partnership with Cross River Bank, we offer an FDIC-insured, high-yield savings account, with no minimum deposit requirements or fees." |
| Partner | Amazon (AMZN) | "The loss of, or decrease in business with, any one of our significant commercial partner relationships, such as with Amazon or Shopify, would adversely affect our business." |
| Partner | Apple (AAPL) | "In addition, as we add new commercial partners, it could take a significant amount of time for these commercial partners, particularly larger platforms such as Apple Pay, to fully integrate our platform and for these com…" |

Other companies that name AFRM in their own reports (relationship from AFRM's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | Warby Parker Inc. (WRBY) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "We rely on third parties, including Stripe, Inc., Affirm, Inc., and PayPal Holdings, Inc. for elements of our payment processing infrastructure to accept payments from customers and Coupa Software Inc…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Network | $302.4M | 25.9% | +26.3% |
| Virtual Card Network | $85.2M | 7.3% | +26.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.17B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 33.2% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $4.11B | 96.5% | +32.4% |
| Canada | $142.8M | 3.4% | +20.0% |
| Other | $6.3M | 0.1% | +2135.5% |
| Total revenue | $4.26B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.86 | $0.87 | -1.4% | $1.21B | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.10 | $1.13 | -2.6% | $1.43B | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-06-30) | $3.85 | $3.78 | +1.8% | $5.49B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-06-30) | $5.02 | $4.76 | +5.3% | $6.84B | 6 |