# AGCO Corporation (AGCO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AGCO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, AGCO Corporation (AGCO), nexqual.com/AGCO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 106.17 (+0.90% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 105.22 · day 102.54–106.56 · 52w 98.22–143.78 · market cap $7.44B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $10.3B, net income $533M (5.2% margin), free cash flow $330M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 13.9x (avg 9.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.0x, net debt $2.15B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AGCO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $110M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($110M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $101K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.63 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 125.07 (range 97–151).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -2.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -5.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.86, revenue estimate $2.32B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | $12.7B | $14.4B | $11.7B | $10.1B | $10.3B |
| Gross profit | $2.57B | $3.00B | $3.78B | $2.90B | $2.57B | — |
| Operating income | $1.00B | $1.27B | $1.70B | -$122M | $596M | $604M |
| Net income | $897M | $890M | $1.17B | -$425M | $727M | $533M |
| EPS (diluted) | $11.85 | $11.87 | $15.63 | -$5.69 | $9.75 | — |
| Free cash flow | $390M | $450M | $585M | $297M | $740M | $330M |
| Gross margin | 23.1% | 23.7% | 26.2% | 24.9% | 25.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.8% | -1.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Net margin | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | -3.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Revenue growth | +21.7% | +13.6% | +13.9% | -19.1% | -13.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $889M | $790M | $596M | $613M | $862M | — |
| Total debt | $1.41B | $1.45B | $1.39B | $2.65B | $2.44B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 13.9x · P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 11.0x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/FCF 22.5x · P/B 1.8x · FCF yield 4.44% · Earnings yield 7.17% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.15% · Net debt $2.15B · EV $9.59B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.7x, Dec 2023 7.8x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold AGCO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Davis | Davis Advisors | 1.06% | $246M | Reduced -1.4% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Harris Ivory Marie | SVP Chief HR Officer | 1,600 | $200K | 10% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-04 | Bennett Kelvin Eugene | SVP Engineering | 1,000 | $133K | 6.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-04 | Hansotia Eric P | Chairman, President and CEO | 2,604 | $338K | 0.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-06 | Bennett Kelvin Eugene | SVP Engineering | 2,000 | $205K | 11.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-05 | Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd |  | 492,418 | $56.8M | 4.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-05 | Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd |  | 422,590 | $52.1M | 3.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $101K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | De Lange Bob | Director | 1,000 | $101K | 100.71 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.63 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 125.07 (low 97, high 151).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $127 → $123 |
| 2026-10-19 | Barclays | Target lowered | Underweight | $105 → $97 |
| 2026-10-08 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $123 → $140 |
| 2026-10-08 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $151 |
| 2026-10-05 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $135 → $146 |
| 2026-08-31 | Baird | Upgrade | Neutral → Outperform | $120 → $150 |
| 2026-08-04 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $123 → $114 |
| 2026-08-04 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Underweight | $110 → $99 |
| 2026-08-03 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $125 → $115 |
| 2026-07-31 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $134 → $127 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $132 → $117 |
| 2026-07-31 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $159 → $135 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -2.5% | -5.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -2.5% | -1.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 36.4% | 35.9% |
| Max drawdown | -29.5% (Feb 2026→Aug 2026) | -40.0% (Feb 2023→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery)
FSS (Federal Signal Corporation) USD 115.54 -0.99% · OSK (Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co) USD 134.29 -0.91% · TEX (Terex Corporation) USD 52.11 -1.81% · CNH (CNH Industrial N.V.) USD 11.58 +0.52% · BLBD (Blue Bird Corporation) USD 56.73 -0.68% · ALG (Alamo Group, Inc.) USD 147.23 -0.86%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AGCO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe/Middle East | $1.73B | 66.4% | -2.4% |
| North America | $471.5M | 18.1% | +19.7% |
| Latin America | $271.3M | 10.4% | -17.9% |
| Asia/Pacific/Africa | $134.5M | 5.2% | -1.0% |
| Total revenue | $2.61B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tractors | $191.0M | 7.3% | +41.4% |
| Combines, application equipment and other machinery | $167.9M | 6.4% | +9.7% |
| Replacement parts | $112.6M | 4.3% | +6.4% |
| Total revenue | $2.61B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 18.1% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | $494.6M | 19.0% | +6.2% |
| Other Europe | $404.5M | 15.5% | -8.3% |
| United States | $373.8M | 14.3% | +23.6% |
| France | $293.6M | 11.3% | -7.2% |
| Finland and Scandinavia | $212.5M | 8.1% | +0.6% |
| Brazil | $167.2M | 6.4% | -25.0% |
| United Kingdom and Ireland | $164.4M | 6.3% | +14.0% |
| Italy | $114.5M | 4.4% | +5.7% |
| Canada | $97.7M | 3.7% | +6.9% |
| Other South America | $78.9M | 3.0% | +0.1% |
| Australia and New Zealand | $77.9M | 3.0% | +39.6% |
| Middle East and Algeria | $48.3M | 1.9% | -45.1% |
| Asia | $36.0M | 1.4% | -28.9% |
| Mexico, Central America and Caribbean | $25.2M | 1.0% | -12.5% |
| Africa | $20.6M | 0.8% | -29.9% |
| Total revenue | $2.61B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "AGCO's net sales for 2026 are expected to be from $10.1 to $10.2 billion."
- "Adjusted operating margins are projected to be about 7.5% reflecting continued emphasis on pricing discipline, cost management and operational alignment."
- "Any changes to tariff policies or related responses could affect these projections. * * * * * AGCO will host a conference call for this earnings announcement at 10 a.m."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.86 | $1.42 | -39.3% | $2.32B | 15 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.30 | $2.26 | +1.8% | $2.89B | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $5.59 | $6.11 | -8.5% | $10.17B | 16 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.26 | $7.77 | -6.5% | $10.71B | 12 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±10.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 48.0% | ±10.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 44.3% | ±13.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 40.0% | ±18.1% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 39.1% | ±23.3% |