# Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AGIO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO), nexqual.com/AGIO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 37.19 (+0.03% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 37.18 · day 36.35–37.74 · 52w 22.24–46 · market cap $2.22B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $98.3M, net income -$411M (-418.2% margin), free cash flow -$365M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 8 Form 4 filings, $2.3M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 5 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 45.88 (range 32–72).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -11.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -23.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -1.23, revenue estimate $51.5M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0K | $14.2M | $26.8M | $36.5M | $54.0M | $98.3M |
| Gross profit | $0K | $12.5M | $23.9M | $32.3M | $47.7M | — |
| Operating income | -$378M | -$389M | -$391M | -$426M | -$472M | -$459M |
| Net income | $1.60B | -$232M | -$352M | $674M | -$413M | -$411M |
| EPS (diluted) | $26.55 | -$4.23 | -$6.33 | $11.64 | -$7.12 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$413M | -$314M | -$297M | -$392M | -$377M | -$365M |
| Gross margin | — | 88.0% | 89.3% | 88.6% | 88.3% | — |
| Operating margin | — | -2732.1% | -1459.5% | -1166.5% | -873.9% | -466.8% |
| Net margin | — | -1627.8% | -1312.6% | 1845.9% | -764.0% | -418.2% |
| Revenue growth | — | — | +88.4% | +36.1% | +48.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.29B | $1.10B | $806M | $1.50B | $1.20B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 22.6x · P/B 2.2x · FCF yield -16.45% · Earnings yield -18.52%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 2.8x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
8 of 8 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Gheuens Sarah | Chief Medical Officer | 30,000 | $914K | 35.4% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-01 | Gheuens Sarah | Chief Medical Officer | 4,007 | $151K | 4.5% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-02 | Burns James William | Chief Legal Officer | 3,280 | $114K | 6.2% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-02 | Gheuens Sarah | Chief Medical Officer | 2,940 | $102K | 3.5% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-02 | Jones Cecilia | Chief Financial Officer | 3,141 | $109K | 5.4% | Yes | Routine (sold in Sep each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-02 | Milanova Tsveta | Chief Commercial Officer | 3,262 | $113K | 6.5% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-02 | Viswanadhan Krishnan | Chief Corp Dev & Strategy | 2,959 | $103K | 22.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-02 | Goff Brian | Chief Executive Officer | 19,068 | $662K | 9.4% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 45.88 (low 32, high 72).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $39 → $37 |
| 2026-09-21 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $46 → $50 |
| 2026-08-07 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $31 → $34 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $46 → $52 |
| 2026-07-31 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $41 → $39 |
| 2026-07-30 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target raised | Buy | $52 → $55 |
| 2026-07-21 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target lowered | Buy | $54 → $52 |
| 2026-07-07 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $28 → $32 |
| 2026-07-07 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $36 → $41 |
| 2026-07-07 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $40 → $46 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -11.6% | -23.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -11.7% | -5.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 92.1% | 63.1% |
| Max drawdown | -50.9% (Nov 2025→Nov 2025) | -63.0% (Oct 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AGIO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AGIO's own 10-K filed 2026-02-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1439222/000143922226000025/agio-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Avanzanite Bioscience | "Under the NewBridge Agreement and the Avanzanite Agreement, we rely on NewBridge and Avanzanite, respectively, to assist with regulatory filings, prepare applications for pricing and reimbursement approval, negotiate wit…" |
| Partner | ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (ALNY) | "•the amount and timing of future milestone and royalty payments potentially payable to Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. pursuant to the license agreement entered into in July 2023;" |
| Partner | TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD (TAK) | "Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc., or Protagonist, in collaboration with Takeda, Pharmaceutical Company Limited, or Takeda;" |
| Partner | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC (IONS) | "Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., or Ionis, in collaboration with Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd./Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc., or Ono/Deciphera;" |
| Partner | Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc (PTGX) | "Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc., or Protagonist, in collaboration with Takeda, Pharmaceutical Company Limited, or Takeda;" |
| Partner | Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) | "Takeda, in collaboration with Keros Therapeutics, Inc.; and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, or Vertex." |
| Partner | Disc Medicine, Inc. (IRON) | "Halia is developing HT-6184 for the treatment of LR-MDS; a number of companies, including Otsuka are developing therapies to treat PKU; and a number of companies, including Silence, Protagonist with Takeda, Italfarmaco S…" |
| Partner | Merck (MRK) | "Halia is developing HT-6184 for the treatment of LR-MDS; a number of companies, including Otsuka are developing therapies to treat PKU; and a number of companies, including Silence, Protagonist with Takeda, Italfarmaco S…" |
| Partner | Servier Pharmaceuticals | "Following the sale of our oncology business to Servier on March 31, 2021, we have financed and expect to continue to finance our operations primarily through cash on hand, potential royalty payments with respect to the R…" |
| Partner | Silence Therapeutics plc (SLN) | "PharmaEssentia Corp and Incyte Corporation are marketing therapies to treat PV, and Protagonist Therapeutics in collaboration with Takeda, Ionis in collaboration with Ono/Deciphera, Italfarmaco S.p.A., DISC, Merck, and S…" |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 89% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-12).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "The addition of cevidoplenib diversifies Agios' rare hematology portfolio and represents an opportunity to unlock up to $1.0 billion in peak U.S. sales potential in this indication. o Agios expects to advance cevidoplenib into Phase 3 development for ITP in the first half of 2028, following completion of additional chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC) development work."
- "Data from this trial are expected in the second half of 2026. • Tebapivat (PK activator) o Lower-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (LR-MDS) – ▪ Agios announced that it will not advance tebapivat in LR-MDS following results from the company's Phase 2b trial."
- "Agios' plans, strategies and expectations for its preclinical, clinical and commercial advancement of its drug development, including mitapivat, tebapivat, AG-236, AG-181 and cevidoplenib;"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-1.23 | $-1.48 | -16.8% | $51.5M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.14 | $-1.40 | -19.1% | $59.7M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-5.74 | $-6.21 | -7.6% | $176.7M | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-3.77 | $-4.65 | -19.0% | $345.4M | 10 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±21.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 96.2% | ±21.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 76.6% | ±23.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 78.5% | ±31.3% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 80.1% | ±35.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 70.3% | ±40.9% |