# agilon health, inc. (AGL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AGL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, agilon health, inc. (AGL), nexqual.com/AGL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 90.29 (-0.77% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 90.99 · day 87.69–92.7 · 52w 7.48–133.04 · market cap $1.52B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $5.92B, net income -$232M (-3.9% margin), free cash flow -$85.0M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AGL (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +266.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -84.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -0.73, revenue estimate $1.46B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.52B | $2.39B | $4.32B | $6.06B | $5.93B | $5.92B |
| Operating income | -$372M | -$105M | -$232M | -$292M | -$463M | -$309M |
| Net income | -$406M | -$107M | -$263M | -$260M | -$391M | -$232M |
| Free cash flow | -$155M | -$146M | -$172M | -$71.0M | -$119M | -$85.0M |
| Operating margin | -24.5% | -4.4% | -5.4% | -4.8% | -7.8% | -5.2% |
| Net margin | -26.7% | -4.5% | -6.1% | -4.3% | -6.6% | -3.9% |
| Revenue growth | +24.9% | +57.0% | +80.7% | +40.4% | -2.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.04B | $877M | $488M | $400M | $285M | — |
| Total debt | $48.8M | $43.8M | $38.6M | $34.9M | $35.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.3x · EV/Sales 0.2x · P/B 6.7x · FCF yield -5.60% · Earnings yield -15.32% · Net cash $155M · EV $1.36B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold AGL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 0.46% | $47.2M | New position |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Bernstein | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $86 → $125 |
| 2026-08-24 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Underweight | $31 → $85 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $141 → $146 |
| 2026-08-11 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Sell → Neutral | $105 → $115 |
| 2026-08-06 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $67 → $112 |
| 2026-08-06 | Benchmark | Target raised | Buy | $95 → $140 |
| 2026-08-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $120 → $125 |
| 2026-08-06 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $81 → $111 |
| 2026-07-23 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Neutral → Sell | $80 → $105 |
| 2026-07-13 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $72 → $141 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +266.3% | -84.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +267.9% | -31.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 141.0% | 101.0% |
| Max drawdown | -69.0% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -98.7% (Mar 2023→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Medical Care Facilities)
PNTG (The Pennant Group, Inc.) USD 42.23 +2.90% · CMPS (COMPASS Pathways Plc - American) USD 11.63 -1.77% · SNDA (Sonida Senior Living, Inc.) USD 33.87 +1.20% · NUTX (Nutex Health Inc.) USD 206.09 +4.29% · HCSG (Healthcare Services Group, Inc.) USD 24.79 +14.19% · USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.) USD 88.73 +2.84%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AGL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AGL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831097/000162828026011655/agl-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Dubilier & Rice | "The policies relating to corporate opportunities and transactions with CD&R set forth in our Certificate of Incorporation address potential conflicts of interest between agilon health, on the one hand, and CD&R and its o…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medical services revenue | $1.49B | 99.9% | +7.2% |
| Other operating revenue | $1.8M | 0.1% | -38.1% |
| Total revenue | $1.49B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 25%, 20% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-05).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Revenue was favorable due to higher than expected burden of illness performance, payor contracting, and improved pricing partially offset by lower year-over-year membership. • Gross profit was $107 million in the second quarter 2026 compared to gross loss of $52 million in the second quarter 2025."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.73 | $-0.65 | +12.5% | $1.46B | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.71 | $-3.57 | +4.0% | $1.46B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-1.79 | $-2.93 | -39.1% | $5.83B | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.36 | $-0.62 | -480.0% | $6.24B | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±20.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±37.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 92.1% | ±20.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 83.5% | ±26.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 75.4% | ±28.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 82.0% | ±40.8% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 79.7% | ±43.1% |