# AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AGNC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), nexqual.com/AGNC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 8.89 (+1.25% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 8.78 · day 8.78–9.06 · 52w 8.38–12.19 · market cap $10.5B · NMS

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 4.7x (avg 18.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $2.8M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($639K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 5 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.62 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 9.66 (range 8–11).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +8.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-19, EPS estimate USD 0.37, revenue estimate $480M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $749M | -$1.19B | $155M | $863M | $1.67B | $2.27B |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.22 | -$2.41 | $0.05 | $0.93 | $1.47 | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $998M | $1.02B | $518M | $505M | $450M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 4.7x · P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield 21.50% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 16.63%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 6.6x, Dec 2024 8.4x, Dec 2023 39.2x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Bell Bernice | EVP, CFO | 15,000 | $166K | 3.7% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-28 | Bell Bernice | EVP, CFO | 5,000 | $55K | 1.2% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-12 | Bell Bernice | EVP, CFO | 10,000 | $108K | 2.4% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-06 | Blank Donna | Director | 22,000 | $237K | 18.6% | No | Routine (sold in May each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-04 | Mullings Paul E | Director | 6,800 | $73K | 4.3% | No | Routine (sold in May each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-24…2026-04-28 | Federico Peter J | Director, President, CEO, CIO | 193,234 | $2.1M | 9.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.62 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 9.66 (low 8, high 11).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $12 → $10 |
| 2026-10-21 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $11 → $10 |
| 2026-10-21 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $10 → $9 |
| 2026-10-09 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $12 → $10 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $12 → $11 |
| 2026-07-22 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $12 → $11 |
| 2026-07-22 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Market Perform | $12 → $11 |
| 2026-07-17 | Compass Point | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $11.5 |
| 2026-07-17 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $11 → $12 |
| 2026-07-02 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $11.5 → $12 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.9% | +8.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +0.9% | +1.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 21.9% | 28.6% |
| Max drawdown | -23.5% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -47.6% (Oct 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
NLY (Annaly Capital Management Inc.) USD 18.34 +1.83% · RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) USD 8.68 +1.52% · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) USD 12.58 +3.71% · DX (Dynex Capital, Inc.) USD 11.05 -0.00% · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.) USD 12.69 -0.94% · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) USD 10.58 +3.73%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AGNC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-19)

- "Consistent with this material underperformance of our underlying asset class, AGNC's economic return on tangible common equity in the third quarter was -12.7%. "Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, there are a number of reasons for optimism with respect to the outlook for Agency MBS once volatility in the Treasury market subsides."
- "CONSTANT PREPAYMENT RATES The Company's weighted average projected CPR for the remaining life of its Agency securities held as of September 30, 2026 decreased to 6.7% from 8.6% as of June 30, 2026."
- "The Company's investment portfolio generated a net premium amortization benefit of $34 million, or $0.03 per common share, for the third quarter, which includes a "catch-up" premium amortization benefit of $66 million, or $0.05 per common share, due to changes in the Company's CPR projections for certain securities acquired prior to the third quarter."
- "The implied funding cost/benefit of TBA dollar roll transactions is determined using the "price drop" (Note 5) and market-based assumptions regarding the "cheapest-to-deliver" collateral that can be delivered to satisfy the TBA contract, such as the anticipated collateral's weighted average coupon, weighted average maturity and projected 1-month CPR."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.37 | $0.38 | -3.1% | $479.8M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.36 | $0.38 | -4.2% | $505.2M | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.56 | $1.58 | -1.6% | $1.61B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.45 | $1.51 | -4.0% | $2.02B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 26.8% | ±4.2% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 29.4% | ±5.3% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 28.5% | ±5.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 28.4% | ±6.7% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 27.3% | ±7.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 20.7% | ±8.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 27.2% | ±9.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 25.6% | ±10.5% |