# Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AGO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO), nexqual.com/AGO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 70.31 (+1.50% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 69.27 · day 69.23–70.37 · 52w 67.24–92.4 · market cap $3.09B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $940M, net income $351M (37.3% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.8x (avg 9.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AGO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $4.0M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.0M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 91 (range 85–97).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +38.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 1.7, revenue estimate $206M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $848M | $723M | $1.37B | $872M | $1.11B | $940M |
| Net income | $389M | $124M | $739M | $376M | $503M | $351M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.23 | $1.92 | $12.30 | $6.87 | $10.26 | — |
| Net margin | 45.9% | 17.2% | 53.8% | 43.1% | 45.3% | 37.3% |
| Revenue growth | -23.9% | -14.7% | +89.9% | -36.5% | +27.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.57B | $1.02B | $1.95B | $1.35B | $1.32B | — |
| Total debt | $1.67B | $1.68B | $1.69B | $1.70B | $1.70B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 8.8x · P/S 3.3x · P/B 0.6x · Earnings yield 11.35% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.20% · Buyback yield (TTM) 11.93%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.7x, Dec 2024 13.0x, Dec 2023 6.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold AGO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Chou | Chou Associates | 0.63% | $1.4M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Radtke Lorin | Director | 1,047 | $78K | 10.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Bailenson Robert | Chief Operating Officer | 50,000 | $3.9M | 16.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.67 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 91 (low 85, high 97).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Roth Capital | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $80 → $85 |
| 2026-08-13 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $101 → $97 |
| 2026-07-17 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $103 → $101 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.5% | +38.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -13.6% | +6.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.8% | 26.0% |
| Max drawdown | -25.5% (Dec 2025→Sep 2026) | -28.9% (Nov 2022→Mar 2023) |

## Peers (Insurance - Specialty)
NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc) USD 41.49 +1.77% · RDN (Radian Group Inc.) USD 34.7 +2.12% · MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) USD 27.74 +1.57% · ESNT (Essent Group Ltd.) USD 65.7 +2.62% · ACT (Enact Holdings, Inc.) USD 46.92 +2.78% · FAF (First American Corporation (New) USD 65.07 -2.09%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AGO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Guaranty | $199.0M | 102.1% | +0.0% | $85.0M | 42.7% |
| Annuity Reinsurance | $15.0M | 7.7% | — | $2.0M | 13.3% |
| Total revenue | $195.0M | 100% | — | — | — |
The lines above cover 109.7% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The difference between loss expense and economic development in a given period represents the amount of deferred premium revenue absorbing expected losses to be paid. 4 Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Expense (Benefit) (in millions) Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 2025 Public finance $ 1 $ 29 U.S."
- "The table below presents the roll forward of net expected losses for second quarter 2026."
- "Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) (1) (in millions) Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2026 Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit) Net (Paid) Recovered Losses Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2026 Public finance $ 131 $ 48 $ (5) $ 174 U.S."
- "Adjusted Operating Shareholders' Equity and ABV The Company's management believes that adjusted operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.70 | $1.61 | +5.7% | $205.7M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.79 | $1.59 | +12.4% | $208.3M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $7.02 | $7.26 | -3.4% | $883.7M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.04 | $7.20 | -2.3% | $843.6M | 3 |