# Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AGRO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), nexqual.com/AGRO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 9.83 (+3.69% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 9.48 · day 9.5–9.9 · 52w 6.89–15.89 · market cap $1.42B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 7 Form 4 filings, $106K; 7 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($106K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.13 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 13.26 (range 10.5–16).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +26.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +22.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-11, EPS estimate USD 0.23, revenue estimate $588M.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 7 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Leon Bentancor Oscar Alejandro | Director | 1,163 | $15K | 11.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-21 | Louis Dreyfus Kyril Robert Leonid | Director | 1,163 | $15K | 11.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-21 | Sarjanovic Ivo | Director | 1,163 | $15K | 5.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-21 | Vaz Artigas Manuela | Director | 1,163 | $15K | 9.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-21 | Larriera Andres Eduardo | Director | 1,163 | $15K | 11.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-21 | Deprati Christian Ferdinando Emilio | Director | 1,163 | $15K | 11.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-07 | Vaz Artigas Manuela | Director | 1,000 | $15K | 14.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.13 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 13.26 (low 10.5, high 16).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $15.2 → $13.2 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +26.0% | +22.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +26.1% | +4.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 51.8% | 42.9% |
| Max drawdown | -41.3% (May 2026→Aug 2026) | -43.8% (Apr 2022→Jul 2022) |

## Peers (Farm Products)
DMC (Del Monte Corporation) USD 29.93 +7.28% · DOLE (Dole plc) USD 13.52 +3.13% · CALM (Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.) USD 63.83 +5.31% · VITL (Vital Farms, Inc.) USD 9.41 +15.18% · VFF (Village Farms International, In) USD 2.71 -1.45% · AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) USD 12.07 +0.84%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AGRO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.23 | $0.11 | +111.9% | $588.2M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.58 | $0.57 | +1.3% | $687.4M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.73 | $1.91 | -9.6% | $2.25B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.39 | $1.25 | +11.2% | $2.24B | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-11): ±12.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 55.6% | ±12.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 52.1% | ±16.5% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 56.9% | ±28.7% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 52.2% | ±33.1% |