# Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ALK · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK), nexqual.com/ALK" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 35.38 (+5.49% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 33.54 · day 32.33–35.66 · 52w 32.33–60.63 · market cap $3.95B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $14.8B, net income -$175M (-1.2% margin) (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ALK (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $263K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($263K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $1.0M; 1 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.88 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 52.31 (range 33–78).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -24.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -34.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-20, EPS estimate USD -2.01, revenue estimate $4.12B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.18B | $9.65B | $10.4B | $11.7B | $14.2B | $14.8B |
| Operating income | $685M | $70.0M | $394M | $570M | $303M | -$224M |
| Net income | $478M | $58.0M | $235M | $395M | $100M | -$175M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.77 | $0.45 | $1.83 | $3.08 | $0.83 | — |
| Free cash flow | $738M | -$253M | -$444M | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 11.1% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | -1.5% |
| Net margin | 7.7% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | -1.2% |
| Revenue growth | +73.2% | +56.2% | +8.1% | +12.6% | +21.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $3.12B | $2.42B | $1.79B | $2.50B | $2.12B | — |
| Total debt | $2.54B | $2.16B | $2.47B | $4.93B | $5.31B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 12.5x · EV/Sales 0.5x · P/B 1.1x · Earnings yield -4.43% · Buyback yield (TTM) 7.22% · Net debt $3.39B · EV $7.33B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 60.3x, Dec 2024 21.0x, Dec 2023 21.4x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold ALK. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 10.58% | $93.6M | Added +5.8% |
| Sarah Ketterer | Causeway Capital Management | 1.80% | $166M | Added +27.2% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Harrison Andrew R | EVP AND CCO | 5,300 | $263K | 17.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $1.0M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Minicucci Benito | CEO AND PRESIDENT | 25,000 | $1.0M | 40.06 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.88 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 52.31 (low 33, high 78).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Sell | $37 → $33 |
| 2026-10-22 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $50 → $42 |
| 2026-10-22 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $92 → $74 |
| 2026-10-22 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $50 → $43 |
| 2026-10-16 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $54 → $51 |
| 2026-10-07 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $55 → $50 |
| 2026-10-02 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $46 → $44 |
| 2026-09-28 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $62.5 → $50 |
| 2026-09-22 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $52 → $54 |
| 2026-09-11 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $65 → $52 |
| 2026-09-10 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $56 → $52 |
| 2026-08-24 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Outperform | $60 → $52 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -24.1% | -34.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -24.2% | -8.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 52.1% | 42.9% |
| Max drawdown | -44.3% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -53.7% (Feb 2025→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Airlines)
SKYW (SkyWest, Inc.) USD 95.73 +1.57% · CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) USD 134.86 -0.94% · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) USD 15.21 -0.33% · ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) USD 70.36 +0.44% · AAL (American Airlines Group, Inc.) USD 12.6 +2.94% · ULCC (Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.) USD 5.3 +5.16%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ALK · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ALK's own 10-K filed 2026-02-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766421/000076642126000010/alk-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Visa (V) | "On a pro forma basis, Loyalty program other revenue increased $38 million, or 5%, due to higher commission revenue from bank card and third party partners, which was driven by increased consumer spend and incremental cre…" |
| Customer | Hawaiian Holdings | "•successfully managing relationships with our combined customer base and retaining Hawaiian's customers;" |
| Partner | Boeing (BA) | "In 2025, Alaska executed an amendment to its purchase agreement with Boeing to purchase 53 incremental B737-10 aircraft scheduled for delivery between 2032 and 2035, and exercised 52 B737-10 option aircraft scheduled for…" |
| Partner | Amazon (AMZN) | "Receivables primarily consist of amounts due from credit card processors for the sale of passenger tickets, from affinity card partners and from other partners for the purchase of points under the Company's loyalty progr…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2025-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | $2.41B | 63.9% | -3.1% |
| Hawaiian Airlines | $857.0M | 22.8% | +802.1% |
| Regional | $500.0M | 13.3% | +1.8% |
| Total revenue | $3.77B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "Air Group expects capacity to grow approximately 1% to 1.5% year-over-year, with the increase concentrated in international flying."
- "Elevated fuel costs are expected to remain a significant headwind to near-term profitability, with our guidance assuming a fourth quarter economic fuel cost of $4.65 to $4.85 per gallon, or $650 million higher than our initial plan."
- "For the full year, we now expect an adjusted loss per share between ($5.50) and ($5.00), inclusive of $1.8 billion in fuel expense above our plan."
- "During the third quarter of 2026, the Company revised its full-year outlook from a pretax income to a pretax loss primarily due to elevated fuel prices."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.01 | $0.60 | -436.6% | $4.12B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $-2.60 | $-1.11 | +135.0% | $3.77B | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-4.68 | $-1.40 | +233.3% | $15.79B | 13 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.05 | $6.24 | -51.2% | $17.36B | 10 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 52.4% | ±11.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 50.5% | ±15.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 49.2% | ±18.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 51.5% | ±23.3% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 50.5% | ±25.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 50.6% | ±27.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 51.8% | ±30.9% |