# Alumis Inc. (ALMS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ALMS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Alumis Inc. (ALMS), nexqual.com/ALMS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.82 (+0.15% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 6.81 · day 6.66–6.95 · 52w 4.37–31.35 · market cap $883M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $7.4M, net income -$439M (-5933.5% margin), free cash flow -$352M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 8 Form 4 filings, $1.5M; 8 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.5M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $10.7M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 31.13 (range 15–46).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +47.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -48.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-12, EPS estimate USD -0.75, revenue estimate $1.7M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | $24.1M | $7.4M |
| Operating income | -$158M | -$301M | -$454M | -$459M |
| Net income | -$155M | -$294M | -$243M | -$439M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$72.08 | -$10.38 | -$2.86 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$134M | -$257M | -$370M | -$352M |
| Operating margin | — | — | -1886.9% | -6204.4% |
| Net margin | — | — | -1011.7% | -5933.5% |
| Cash + short-term investments | $49.0M | $288M | $309M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 119.3x · P/B 1.9x · FCF yield -39.85% · Earnings yield -49.73%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 8 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Akkaraju Srinivas | Director | 96,131 | $1.0M | 1.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-03 | Schroer John R. | Chief Financial Officer | 3,282 | $87K | 11.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Pangali Sanam | Chief Legal Officer | 1,364 | $36K | 12.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Hardiman Roy C. | Chief Business & Strategy Ofcr | 2,692 | $71K | 1.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Goldstein David M | Chief Scientific Officer | 2,596 | $68K | 1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Drappa Jorn | Chief Medical Officer | 2,447 | $65K | 4.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Bradley Mark Christopher | Chief Development Officer | 2,572 | $68K | 3.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Pangali Sanam | Chief Legal Officer | 5,000 | $140K | 31% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $10.7M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04…2026-09-08 | Akkaraju Srinivas | Director | 986,721 | $10.7M | 10.87 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 31.13 (low 15, high 46).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Guggenheim | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral |  |
| 2026-09-02 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $55 → $37 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $51 → $25 |
| 2026-09-02 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $39 → $29 |
| 2026-09-02 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $25 → $15 |
| 2026-08-14 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Neutral | $25 |
| 2026-08-03 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Neutral | $25 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2024-06-24) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +47.9% | -48.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +48.1% | -24.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 132.5% | 116.8% |
| Max drawdown | -80.0% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -79.4% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ALMS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.75 | $-0.72 | +3.6% | $1.7M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.72 | $-0.71 | +1.1% | $1.7M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.32 | $-2.90 | +14.4% | $6.3M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-2.87 | $-2.95 | -2.7% | $24.3M | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-12): ±21.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 93.2% | ±21.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 66.5% | ±21.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 106.5% | ±41.2% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 140.1% | ±75.3% |