# Alto Neuroscience, Inc. (ANRO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ANRO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Alto Neuroscience, Inc. (ANRO), nexqual.com/ANRO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 22.2 (-4.80% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 23.32 · day 22.18–24.29 · 52w 10.18–37.48 · market cap $871M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $3.6M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.09 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 38.88 (range 26–60).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +98.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +7.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-11, EPS estimate USD -0.7, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -$37.8M | -$68.6M | -$66.4M | -$88.3M |
| Net income | -$36.3M | -$61.4M | -$63.2M | -$84.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$9.73 | -$2.50 | -$2.19 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$33.9M | -$49.5M | -$51.8M | -$68.8M |
| Cash + short-term investments | $82.5M | $168M | $176M | — |
| Total debt | $9.9M | $10.3M | $16.8M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 4.0x · FCF yield -7.90% · Earnings yield -9.67% · Net cash $228M · EV $644M

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29…2026-09-30 | Smith Nicholas Conrad | PRESIDENT AND CFO | 134,886 | $3.6M | 84.9% | Yes (adopted June 30, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.09 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 38.88 (low 26, high 60).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target raised | Buy | $55 → $60 |
| 2026-08-17 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target raised | Buy | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-08-13 | Wedbush | Target raised | Neutral | $24 → $26 |
| 2026-08-13 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $28 → $37 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2024-01-29) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +98.6% | +7.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +99.0% | +2.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 78.9% | 117.1% |
| Max drawdown | -40.8% (Sep 2026→Oct 2026) | -91.3% (Jan 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 307.82 -2.21% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 90.9 +2.57% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.14 -3.28% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 258.92 +0.96% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.91 -0.81% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ANRO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ANRO's own 10-K filed 2026-03-16 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1999480/000199948026000002/alto-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | MedRx | "In September 2023, we entered into a joint development and license agreement, or the MedRx Agreement, with MedRx Co., Ltd., or MedRx, pursuant to which we obtained an exclusive, sublicensable, worldwide license, with the…" |
| Partner | The Wellcome Trust | "In July 2024, we entered into the Convertible Grant Agreement with Wellcome." |
| Partner | Cerecor | "In May 2021, we entered into a patent and know-how license agreement, or the Cerecor Agreement, with Cerecor Inc. (n/k/a Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.), or Cerecor, pursuant to which we obtained an exclusive worldwide, royalt…" |
| Partner | Merck (MRK) | "In May 2021, we entered into a patent and know-how license agreement, or the Cerecor Agreement, with Cerecor Inc. (n/k/a Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.), or Cerecor, pursuant to which we obtained an exclusive worldwide, royalt…" |
| Partner | Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (AVTX) | "In May 2021, we entered into a patent and know-how license agreement, or the Cerecor Agreement, with Cerecor Inc. (n/k/a Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.), or Cerecor, pursuant to which we obtained an exclusive worldwide, royalt…" |
| Partner | PALISADE BIO, INC. (PALI) | "In connection with the transactions effected by the Palisade Agreement, Palisade also transferred and assigned to us all right, title, and interest in, to, and under an exclusive license agreement, or the Dow Agreement, …" |
| Partner | K2 HealthVentures | "In addition, the terms of our Amended Loan Agreement with K2 HealthVentures and the terms of our Convertible Grant Agreement with Wellcome restrict our ability to pay dividends." |
| Partner | Chase Therapeutics | "For example, under the terms of our asset purchase agreement with Chase, we will be obligated to pay Chase up to an aggregate of $71.5 million in clinical, regulatory, and sales milestone payments with respect to ALTO-20…" |
| Partner | Ankura Trust Company | "In December 2022, we entered into the Original Loan Agreement with K2 HealthVentures LLC as a lender, the other lenders party thereto (collectively, the Lenders), K2 HealthVentures LLC, or the Administrative Agent, and A…" |
| Partner | TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD (TEVA) | "Effective October 4, 2021, the Company entered into an agreement with Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd to acquire patents, know-how and other rights to ALTO-203 and a specified related compound (the "Teva Acquired Com…" |
| Competitor | AbbVie (ABBV) | "Notable examples of companies with either approved therapies or product candidates in development in areas that may be competitive in our areas of focus are AbbVie Inc.;" |

Other companies that name ANRO in their own reports (relationship from ANRO's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (AVTX) | 10-K 2026-03-23 | "Under the out-license agreement, the Company received a mid-six digit upfront payment from Alto, which we recognized as license revenue in 2021." |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-12)

- "Alto expects to initiate this trial in the second half of 2027 pending alignment with the FDA. • Alto's patent estate covering ALTO-207 includes multiple method-of-treatment patents protecting the use of ondansetron to mitigate pramipexole-related side effects to enable higher pramipexole dosing in the treatment of depression."
- "Together with the Company's broader estate of issued and pending patents, Alto expects patent coverage of ALTO-207 through at least the mid-2040s."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.70 | $-0.80 | -11.8% | $0 | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.73 | $-0.78 | -6.6% | $0 | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.92 | $-3.15 | -7.1% | $0 | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-3.19 | $-3.43 | -7.2% | $0 | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-11): ±23.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 103.9% | ±23.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 79.4% | ±25.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 76.8% | ±29.7% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 78.4% | ±43.5% |