# Aon plc (AON)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AON · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Aon plc (AON), nexqual.com/AON" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 306.8 (+4.23% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 294.35 · day 296.01–306.95 · 52w 266.33–382.34 · market cap $65.1B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $17.6B, net income $3.91B (22.3% margin), free cash flow $3.25B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 16.6x (avg 24.3x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 16.3x, net debt $13.7B.
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AON (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 3 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $1.7M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $6.5M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale) (21 analysts), mean target USD 354.21 (range 229–435).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -9.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -0.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 3.3, revenue estimate $4.08B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | $12.5B | $13.4B | $15.7B | $17.2B | $17.6B |
| Operating income | $2.09B | $3.67B | $3.79B | $3.83B | $4.34B | $4.65B |
| Net income | $1.25B | $2.59B | $2.56B | $2.65B | $3.69B | $3.91B |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.55 | $12.14 | $12.51 | $12.49 | $17.02 | — |
| Free cash flow | $2.04B | $3.02B | $3.18B | $2.82B | $3.22B | $3.25B |
| Operating margin | 17.1% | 29.4% | 28.3% | 24.4% | 25.3% | 26.5% |
| Net margin | 10.3% | 20.7% | 19.2% | 16.9% | 21.5% | 22.3% |
| Revenue growth | +10.2% | +2.3% | +7.2% | +17.4% | +9.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $836M | $1.14B | $1.15B | $1.30B | $2.80B | — |
| Total debt | $9.39B | $10.8B | $11.2B | $17.0B | $15.2B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 16.6x · P/S 3.7x · EV/EBITDA 16.3x · EV/Sales 4.5x · P/FCF 20.0x · P/B 6.8x · FCF yield 4.99% · Earnings yield 6.01% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.01% · Net debt $13.7B · EV $78.8B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 20.7x, Dec 2024 28.8x, Dec 2023 23.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold AON. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Klarman | Baupost Group | 4.21% | $228M | Reduced -10.7% |
| First Pacific Advisors |  | 2.84% | $226M | Reduced -3.1% |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 1.49% | $2.85B | Added +5.9% |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 1.09% | $382M | Added +5.9% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.47% | $54.4M | Reduced -87.9% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.34% | $45.0M | Unchanged |
| Yacktman Asset Management |  | 0.05% | $4.3M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Zeidel Darren | General Counsel | 1,900 | $718K | 14.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-17 | Zeidel Darren | General Counsel | 1,950 | $726K | 12.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-07 | Zeidel Darren | General Counsel | 600 | $216K | 3.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $6.5M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Knight Lester B | Director | 20,000 | $6.5M | 327.48 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.43 on a 1–5 scale), 21 analysts; mean target USD 354.21 (low 229, high 435).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $383 → $323 |
| 2026-10-12 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $417 → $342 |
| 2026-10-07 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $366 → $324 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $382 → $317 |
| 2026-10-07 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target lowered | Overweight | $433 → $400 |
| 2026-10-06 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $410 → $350 |
| 2026-10-01 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $412 → $362 |
| 2026-09-16 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $398 → $366 |
| 2026-09-14 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $416 → $420 |
| 2026-09-02 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $436 → $423 |
| 2026-09-01 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Market Perform | $375 → $360 |
| 2026-09-01 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $412 → $417 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -9.7% | -0.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -9.7% | -0.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 28.8% | 23.5% |
| Max drawdown | -29.2% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -33.5% (Feb 2025→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Insurance Brokers)
AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) USD 270.98 +4.88% · MRSH (Marsh) USD 199.27 +4.57% · WTW (Willis Towers Watson Public Lim) USD 332.18 +4.58% · BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.) USD 74.49 +5.61% · ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company) USD 256.8 +5.19% · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.49 +5.28%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AON · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | $3.01B | 70.8% | +4.9% | $916.0M | 30.5% |
| Human Capital | $1.24B | 29.3% | -3.6% | $167.0M | 13.4% |
| Total revenue | $4.25B | 100% | — | $915.0M | 21.5% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Risk Solutions | $2.29B | 54.1% | +5.4% |
| Health Solutions | $818.0M | 19.3% | +6.0% |
| Reinsurance Solutions | $711.0M | 16.7% | +3.3% |
| Wealth Solutions | $426.0M | 10.0% | -17.9% |
| Total revenue | $4.25B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $2.02B | 47.6% | -1.0% |
| Europe, Middle East, & Africa other than U.K. and Ireland | $718.0M | 16.9% | +13.2% |
| U.K. | $632.0M | 14.9% | +3.6% |
| Asia Pacific | $421.0M | 9.9% | -2.1% |
| Americas other than U.S. | $408.0M | 9.6% | +3.3% |
| Ireland | $47.0M | 1.1% | +2.2% |
| Total revenue | $4.25B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "We remain confident in our strategy, our outlook, and our ability to deliver sustainable long-term value." Net income attributable to Aon shareholders in the second quarter decreased 3%, to $2.58 per share on a diluted basis, compared to $2.66 per share on a diluted basis, in the prior-year period."
- "If currency were to remain stable at today's rates, the Company would expect a de minimis impact on adjusted EPS in the third quarter of 2026 and a favorable impact on adjusted EPS of approximately $0.42 per share for the full year 2026."
- "Stay up-to-date by visiting the Aon Newsroom and sign up for News Alerts. 5 Safe Harbor Statement This communication contains certain statements related to future results, or states Aon's intentions, beliefs and expectations or predictions for the future, all of which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995."
- "In addition, results for prior periods are not necessarily indicative of results that may be expected 6 for any future period."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.30 | $3.42 | -3.5% | $4.08B | 21 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.99 | $5.37 | -7.1% | $4.53B | 19 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $18.57 | $19.10 | -2.8% | $17.92B | 22 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $20.21 | $21.35 | -5.3% | $21.66B | 20 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±7.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 33.1% | ±7.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 30.9% | ±9.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 29.9% | ±11.6% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 29.8% | ±16.5% |