# American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/APEI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI), nexqual.com/APEI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 48.86 (+2.26% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 47.78 · day 47.69–48.91 · 52w 30.2–61.59 · market cap $894M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $668M, net income $45.7M (6.8% margin), free cash flow $70.1M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 19.6x (avg 23.4x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.5x, net cash $136M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold APEI (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $1.2M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($637K); 1 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 62.83 (range 55–70).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +36.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +100.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-09, EPS estimate USD 0.36, revenue estimate $166M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $419M | $606M | $601M | $625M | $649M | $668M |
| Gross profit | $246M | $318M | $308M | $329M | $352M | — |
| Operating income | $30.4M | -$137M | -$48.3M | $33.1M | $47.9M | $63.8M |
| Net income | $17.8M | -$115M | -$47.3M | $16.1M | $31.6M | $45.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.97 | -$6.08 | -$2.93 | $0.55 | $1.36 | — |
| Free cash flow | $4.4M | $12.8M | $31.6M | $27.8M | $46.1M | $70.1M |
| Gross margin | 58.8% | 52.4% | 51.2% | 52.7% | 54.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 7.3% | -22.7% | -8.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% |
| Net margin | 4.2% | -19.0% | -7.9% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% |
| Revenue growth | +30.1% | +44.8% | -1.0% | +4.0% | +3.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $150M | $103M | $117M | $132M | $174M | — |
| Total debt | $161M | $93.2M | $94.7M | $93.4M | $94.7M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 19.6x · P/S 1.3x · EV/EBITDA 9.5x · EV/Sales 1.1x · P/FCF 12.8x · P/B 2.9x · FCF yield 7.84% · Earnings yield 5.11% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.50% · Net cash $136M · EV $759M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 22.4x, Dec 2024 24.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold APEI. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $750K | Reduced -1.1% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Fernandes Nuno S. | President, APUS | 8,800 | $397K | 10.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-12 | Kenigsberg James | Chief Inno & Tech Officer | 1,313 | $60K | 2.9% | Yes (adopted May 13, 2026) | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-22 | Beckett Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | 2,000 | $108K | 3.7% | Yes (adopted March 16, 2026) | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-15 | Beckett Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | 8,000 | $414K | 12.9% | Yes (adopted March 16, 2026) | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-13 | Fernandes Nuno S. | President, APUS | 4,500 | $240K | 5.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 62.83 (low 55, high 70).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Lake Street | Target raised | Buy | $62 → $64 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +36.5% | +100.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +36.7% | +14.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 43.7% | 65.5% |
| Max drawdown | -33.3% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -84.5% (Nov 2021→Mar 2023) |

## Peers (Education & Training Services)
PXED (Phoenix Education Partners, Inc) USD 24.57 +3.85% · LINC (Lincoln Educational Services Co) USD 21.96 +3.34% · UTI (Universal Technical Institute I) USD 21.66 +4.13% · AFYA (Afya Limited) USD 14.91 +0.07% · COUR (Coursera, Inc.) USD 5.07 +2.01% · GOTU (Gaotu Techedu Inc.) USD 2.52 -3.08%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/APEI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in APEI's own 10-K filed 2026-03-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | American Public University System | "We rely on third parties to administer elements of APUS's, RU's, and HCN's participation in Title IV programs and their failure to perform services as agreed or to comply with applicable regulations could cause us to los…" |
| Partner | Accenture (ACN) | "Earlier in her career, Ms. Selden spent 18 years at Accenture, including serving as the Managing Partner leading Accenture's North American West Consumer and Industrial Products group to significant growth." |
| Partner | Macquarie Capital Funding | "In connection with the completion of the Rasmussen Acquisition, we entered into a credit agreement with Macquarie Capital Funding LLC, as administrative agent and collateral agent, Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., and Truis…" |
| Partner | Truist Securities | "In connection with the completion of the Rasmussen Acquisition, we entered into a credit agreement with Macquarie Capital Funding LLC, as administrative agent and collateral agent, Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., and Truis…" |
| Partner | PNC Capital Markets | "On March 9, 2026, we entered into a Credit Agreement with PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collateral agent, PNC Capital Markets LLC as joint lead arranger and bookrunner, and a syndicate of le…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health+ | $86.2M | 50.2% | +11.0% | $308,000 | 0.4% |
| Military+ | $85.5M | 49.8% | +4.7% | $23.7M | 27.7% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$10.5M | — |
| Total revenue | $171.7M | 100% | — | $13.5M | 7.9% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Instructional services, net of grants and scholarships | $84.0M | 48.9% | +4.3% |
| Graduation fees | $1.2M | 0.7% | +36.4% |
| Other fees | $288,000 | 0.2% | -5.0% |
| Total revenue | $171.7M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 49.8% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 43%, 25%, 18% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-10).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-10)

- "Guidance ~ CHARLES TOWN, W.V. – August 10, 2026 -- American Public Education, Inc."
- "Selden concluded, "As we raise revenue, net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026, we remain focused on disciplined execution and building on the momentum established in the first half of the year." Key Second Quarter 2026 Highlights (as Compared to Second Quarter 2025) ·"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.36 | $0.58 | -37.9% | $166.2M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.96 | $0.88 | +9.7% | $180.9M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.02 | $3.02 | +0.3% | $693.5M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.76 | $3.77 | -0.3% | $734.6M | 2 |