# APi Group Corporation (APG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/APG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, APi Group Corporation (APG), nexqual.com/APG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 38.8 (-3.51% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 40.21 · day 38.58–39.88 · 52w 33.52–49.99 · market cap $16.8B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $8.44B, net income $346M (4.1% margin), free cash flow $676M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 48.5x (avg 48.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 28.2x, net debt $2.67B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$137M vs operating income $605M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈37.5x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 26.1% effective rate).
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold APG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $176M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($84.5M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 4 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.73 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 52.45 (range 47–55).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +12.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +169.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $2.40B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.94B | $6.56B | $6.93B | $7.02B | $7.91B | $8.44B |
| Gross profit | $939M | $1.71B | $1.94B | $2.18B | $2.49B | — |
| Operating income | $136M | $162M | $359M | $484M | $554M | $605M |
| Net income | $47.0M | $73.0M | $153M | $250M | $302M | $346M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.45 | $0.07 | -$0.46 | -$0.56 | -$0.69 | — |
| Free cash flow | $127M | $191M | $428M | $536M | $663M | $676M |
| Gross margin | 23.8% | 26.1% | 28.0% | 31.0% | 31.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| Revenue growth | +9.8% | +66.4% | +5.6% | +1.3% | +12.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.19B | $605M | $479M | $499M | $912M | — |
| Total debt | $1.77B | $2.79B | $2.33B | $2.75B | $2.76B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 48.5x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈37.5x · P/S 2.0x · EV/EBITDA 28.2x · EV/Sales 2.3x · P/FCF 24.8x · P/B 4.8x · FCF yield 4.03% · Earnings yield 2.06% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.39% · Net debt $2.67B · EV $19.4B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 52.7x, Dec 2024 38.5x, Dec 2023 53.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold APG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 5.00% | $514M | Reduced -17.9% |
| Daniel Loeb | Third Point | 2.61% | $121M | Added +41.1% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.02% | $2.5M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 of 6 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03…2026-08-04 | Ashken Ian G H | Director | 300,000 | $12.0M | 3% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Lillie James E | Director | 360,000 | $14.3M | 3.4% | Yes (adopted May 9, 2025) | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-17 | Malkin Anthony E | Director | 7,000 | $297K | 2.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-11 | Franklin Martin E | Director | 2,000,000 | $84.2M | 8.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-04…2026-05-05 | Ashken Ian G H | Director | 1,084,000 | $48.5M | 9.9% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-04…2026-05-05 | Lillie James E | Director | 360,000 | $16.2M | 3.3% | Yes (adopted May 9, 2025) | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.73 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 52.45 (low 47, high 55).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $54 → $55 |
| 2026-08-04 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Overweight | $53 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $53 → $54 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +12.4% | +169.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +12.4% | +21.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 29.9% | 30.9% |
| Max drawdown | -25.6% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -48.5% (Dec 2021→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Engineering & Construction)
J (Jacobs Solutions Inc.) USD 146.26 +2.65% · MTZ (MasTec, Inc.) USD 171.55 -5.20% · STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.) USD 372.83 -9.72% · IESC (IES Holdings, Inc.) USD 220.75 -6.70% · EME (EMCOR Group, Inc.) USD 660.41 -5.54% · TTEK (Tetra Tech, Inc.) USD 36.81 +5.02%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/APG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in APG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Juno Lower Holdings | "During 2024, we entered into a Conversion and Repurchase Agreement with Juno Lower Holdings L.P. ("Juno Lower Holdings"), FD Juno Holdings L.P. ("FD Juno Holdings," and together with Juno Lower Holdings, "Blackstone"), V…" |
| Partner | FD Juno Holdings | "During 2024, we entered into a Conversion and Repurchase Agreement with Juno Lower Holdings L.P. ("Juno Lower Holdings"), FD Juno Holdings L.P. ("FD Juno Holdings," and together with Juno Lower Holdings, "Blackstone"), V…" |
| Partner | Viking Global Equities Master | "During 2024, we entered into a Conversion and Repurchase Agreement with Juno Lower Holdings L.P. ("Juno Lower Holdings"), FD Juno Holdings L.P. ("FD Juno Holdings," and together with Juno Lower Holdings, "Blackstone"), V…" |
| Partner | Viking Global Equities II | "During 2024, we entered into a Conversion and Repurchase Agreement with Juno Lower Holdings L.P. ("Juno Lower Holdings"), FD Juno Holdings L.P. ("FD Juno Holdings," and together with Juno Lower Holdings, "Blackstone"), V…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety Services | $1.48B | 65.7% | +8.8% | $252.0M | 17.0% |
| Specialty Services | $773.0M | 34.3% | +22.9% | $92.0M | 11.9% |
| Total revenue | $2.25B | 100% | — | $344.0M | 15.3% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Elimination | $2.25B | 100.0% | +13.3% |
| Life Safety | $1.48B | 65.7% | +8.8% |
| Total revenue | $2.25B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 165.7% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.54B | 68.5% | +18.7% |
| Other | $532.0M | 23.6% | +3.1% |
| France | $177.0M | 7.9% | +2.9% |
| Total revenue | $2.25B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.47 | $0.47 | -0.6% | $2.40B | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.50 | $0.49 | +1.3% | $2.36B | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.97 | $1.21 | -19.9% | $8.99B | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.00 | $2.00 | -0.1% | $9.70B | 12 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±9.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 43.4% | ±9.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 38.4% | ±12.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 36.4% | ±14.2% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 35.2% | ±19.8% |