# Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/APLD · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Applied Digital Corporation (APLD), nexqual.com/APLD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 19.09 (-9.01% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 20.98 · day 18.72–20.5 · 52w 17.65–50.73 · market cap $5.77B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 31, 2026): revenue $854M, net income -$351M (-41.2% margin), free cash flow -$4.46B (SEC filings).
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold APLD (13F, Q2 2026): 3 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $4.2M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.2M); 3 by opportunistic insiders (3 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $6.7M; 1 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 62.44 (range 22–93).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -42.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +299.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2027-01-06, EPS estimate USD -0.17, revenue estimate $159M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.5M | $55.4M | $166M | $229M | $611M | $854M |
| Gross profit | -$957K | $11.0M | $17.2M | $11.8M | $214M | — |
| Operating income | -$20.9M | -$42.9M | -$98.3M | -$72.2M | -$236M | -$304M |
| Net income | -$23.5M | -$44.6M | -$149M | -$231M | -$184M | -$351M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.41 | -$0.47 | -$1.31 | -$1.16 | -$0.91 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$59.1M | -$72.5M | -$128M | -$797M | -$2.78B | -$4.46B |
| Gross margin | -11.2% | 19.9% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 35.1% | — |
| Operating margin | -244.4% | -77.5% | -59.4% | -31.6% | -38.7% | -35.6% |
| Net margin | -275.1% | -80.6% | -90.2% | -101.1% | -30.2% | -41.2% |
| Revenue growth | — | +547.9% | +198.9% | +38.0% | +167.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $38.8M | $29.0M | $3.3M | $44.0M | $1.59B | — |
| Total debt | $7.2M | — | — | $678M | $4.96B | — |
Fiscal years end May. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 31, 2026)
P/S 6.8x · EV/Sales 10.6x · P/B 3.6x · FCF yield -77.18% · Earnings yield -6.09% · Net debt $3.31B · EV $9.09B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold APLD. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Coleman | Tiger Global Management | 0.14% | $33.0M | New position |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.03% | $3.7M | New position |
| Daniel Loeb | Third Point | 0.02% | $821K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Nottenburg Richard N | Director | 31,250 | $683K | 23.4% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-04 | Nottenburg Richard N | Director | 75,000 | $2.3M | 36% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-28…2026-04-30 | Nottenburg Richard N | Director | 25,000 | $832K | 10.7% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-27 | Miller Douglas S | Director | 10,000 | $350K | 5.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $6.7M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Cummins Wes | CEO; Chairman | 55,803 | $1.0M | 18.04 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-10-16 | Zhang Jason Gechen | President | 300,000 | $5.7M | 18.86 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 62.44 (low 22, high 93).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $37.5 → $41 |
| 2026-10-08 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-10-08 | Freedom Capital Markets | Maintained | Buy | $48 |
| 2026-10-08 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $83 → $70 |
| 2026-09-23 | UBS | Initiated | Buy | $38 |
| 2026-09-21 | Rothschild & Co | Initiated | Neutral | $22 |
| 2026-09-17 | Wells Fargo | Initiated | Overweight | $50 |
| 2026-08-06 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $36.5 → $37.5 |
| 2026-08-03 | B. Riley Securities | Target raised | Buy | $66 → $75 |
| 2026-07-28 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $83 |
| 2026-07-23 | Morgan Stanley | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $36.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2022-04-11) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -42.8% | +299.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -42.9% | +35.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 100.8% | 137.4% |
| Max drawdown | -63.6% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -79.8% (Apr 2022→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Information Technology Services)
MAAS (Maase Inc.) USD 12.49 -5.45% · SAIC (Science Applications Internatio) USD 143.54 +4.97% · INGM (Ingram Micro Holding Corporatio) USD 27.5 -0.47% · EXLS (ExlService Holdings, Inc.) USD 42.91 +4.61% · PSN (Parsons Corporation) USD 47.8 +5.29% · G (Genpact Limited) USD 41.78 +6.23%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/APLD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in APLD's own 10-K filed 2026-07-29 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000048/apld-20260531.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | ChronoScale Holdings Corp (CHRN) | "Adjusted revenue is total revenue excluding total revenue from ChronoScale." |
| Partner | CoreWeave (CRWV) | "Each lease is a direct, long-term agreement with CoreWeave or an investment-grade hyperscaler, is structured" |
| Partner | Base Electron | "In addition, through our partnership with Base Electron Corporation ("Base Electron"), an independent power producer, we are pursuing the development of approximately 1.2 GW of front-of-the-meter, natural gas-fired gener…" |
| Partner | Caterpillar (CAT) | "Because power distribution, cooling architecture, and data hall layouts are standardized across our campuses, we are able to consolidate purchasing around a common set of trusted, qualified partners—including ABB for ele…" |
| Partner | Northland Securities | "On June 2, 2025, we entered into a Sales Agreement with Northland Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the "June 2025 Sales Agreement")." |
| Partner | Wells Fargo Securities | "On June 2, 2025, we entered into a Sales Agreement with Northland Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (the "June 2025 Sales Agreement")." |
| Related party | Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) | "Gain on change in fair value of investment was $10.8 million for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, due to an increase of $8.8 million in fair value of our investment in BWE common stock and an increase of $2.0 million …" |
| Competitor | Equinix (EQIX) | "We compete with established data center owners and operators, including Digital Realty Trust, Inc. and Equinix, Inc., as well as hyperscalers that develop their own capacity, independent and private data center developer…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-08-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPC Hosting Business | $183.5M | 69.8% | +597.9% | $33.4M | 18.2% |
| Data Center Hosting Business | $37.8M | 14.4% | -0.4% | $13.3M | 35.3% |
| Total revenue | $262.8M | 100% | — | -$62.4M | -23.7% |
The lines above cover 84.2% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-08-31: 56%, 21%, 11%, 0% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-10-07).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-07)

- "The Company expects initial operations at Polaris Forge 2 in Harwood to increase delivered critical IT load across our North Dakota campuses to 300 MW by the end of calendar 2026, further demonstrating the Company's ability to execute against its development pipeline."
- "Polaris Forge 1 in Ellendale, North Dakota, was recently named Project of the Year by the Mid-America Economic Development Council for its economic impact, community investment, partnerships, and technological innovation."
- "This increase was primarily due to increases of $51.7 million in stock based compensation due to performance awards and the increase in headcount, $9.9 million in personnel expenses related to the increase in headcount, and $12.1 million in professional service expense primarily related to legal services provided on discrete transactions and projects, as well as general support of the business."
- "(3) Represents legal, accounting and consulting costs incurred in association with certain discrete transactions and projects."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-11-30) | $-0.17 | $-0.30 | -43.5% | $159.3M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-02-28) | $-0.25 | $-0.34 | -26.3% | $213.0M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-05-31) | $-1.06 | $-1.23 | -13.5% | $957.5M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-05-31) | $-0.78 | $-1.00 | -21.6% | $1.95B | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2027-01-15 (includes earnings 2027-01-06): ±36.6%; earnings reaction alone ±9.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±13.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 98.5% | ±11.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 97.6% | ±16.0% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 97.4% | ±19.3% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 96.8% | ±22.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 96.6% | ±23.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 91.8% | ±25.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 90.3% | ±28.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 93.3% | ±36.6% |