# AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/APPF · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, AppFolio, Inc. (APPF), nexqual.com/APPF" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 217.33 (+0.06% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 217.2 · day 208.66–222.59 · 52w 142.56–265.02 · market cap $7.70B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.04B, net income $158M (15.1% margin), free cash flow $270M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 48.9x (avg 813.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 29 Form 4 filings, $45.2M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($313K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 243.41 (range 217.29–280).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -9.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +63.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 1.7, revenue estimate $287M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $359M | $472M | $620M | $794M | $951M | $1.04B |
| Gross profit | $215M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$11.9M | -$72.4M | $963K | $136M | $153M | $182M |
| Net income | $1.0M | -$68.1M | $2.7M | $204M | $141M | $158M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.03 | -$1.95 | $0.07 | $5.55 | $3.88 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.3M | $18.8M | $51.2M | $186M | $239M | $270M |
| Gross margin | 59.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | -3.3% | -15.3% | 0.2% | 17.1% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| Net margin | 0.3% | -14.4% | 0.4% | 25.7% | 14.8% | 15.1% |
| Revenue growth | +15.9% | +31.3% | +31.5% | +28.0% | +19.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $122M | $160M | $212M | $278M | $251M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 48.9x · P/S 7.4x · P/FCF 28.5x · P/B 14.6x · FCF yield 3.51% · Earnings yield 2.05% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.62%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 60.0x, Dec 2024 44.5x, Dec 2023 2334.9x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
28 of 29 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20…2026-08-21 | Duca Maurice J |  | 9,856 | $2.2M | 3.7% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-19 | Duca Maurice J |  | 7,001 | $1.5M | 2.9% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-18…2026-08-19 | Duca Maurice J |  | 8,056 | $1.6M | 8.4% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-19 | Eaton Timothy Mathias | Chief Financial Officer | 373 | $76K | 2.2% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-17 | Duca Maurice J |  | 5,600 | $1.1M | 2.3% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-14…2026-08-17 | Duca Maurice J |  | 15,800 | $3.2M | 13.5% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-14 | Trigg William Shane | Chief Executive Officer | 2,057 | $422K | 2.8% | Yes (adopted August 14, 2025) | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-13 | Duca Maurice J |  | 6,693 | $1.3M | 2.5% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-12…2026-08-13 | Duca Maurice J |  | 14,707 | $2.9M | 10.6% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-11…2026-08-12 | Pickering Evan | General Counsel | 463 | $93K | 8.2% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-11 | Duca Maurice J |  | 5,442 | $1.1M | 2.1% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-10…2026-08-11 | Duca Maurice J |  | 15,958 | $3.2M | 10% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-10 | Rigler Don | Principal Accounting Officer | 150 | $29K | 3.6% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-07 | Duca Maurice J |  | 5,809 | $1.2M | 1.9% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-06…2026-08-07 | Duca Maurice J |  | 15,591 | $3.0M | 8.6% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-05 | Pickering Evan | General Counsel | 661 | $133K | 10.1% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-05 | Duca Maurice J |  | 8,334 | $1.6M | 2.2% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-04…2026-08-05 | Duca Maurice J |  | 13,066 | $2.5M | 6.5% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-31…2026-08-03 | Duca Maurice J |  | 21,400 | $3.9M | 5.2% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-28…2026-07-30 | Duca Maurice J |  | 23,900 | $4.4M | 8.7% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 243.41 (low 217.29, high 280).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $233 → $255 |
| 2026-10-07 | UBS | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $200 → $220 |
| 2026-09-17 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $255 → $280 |
| 2026-07-23 | Guggenheim | Initiated | Buy | $232 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -9.3% | +63.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -9.3% | +10.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.6% | 40.1% |
| Max drawdown | -45.3% (Nov 2025→Apr 2026) | -55.1% (Jul 2025→Apr 2026) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
DSGX (The Descartes Systems Group Inc) USD 94 +1.74% · TTAN (ServiceTitan, Inc.) USD 85.2 +3.50% · IDCC (InterDigital, Inc.) USD 332.06 -0.78% · YMM (Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.) USD 8.35 -1.76% · PCTY (Paylocity Holding Corporation) USD 177.67 +4.93% · PCOR (Procore Technologies, Inc.) USD 62.29 +2.27%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/APPF · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value Added Services | $231.9M | 78.4% | +20.7% |
| Subscription Services | $61.5M | 20.8% | +14.5% |
| Other | $2.2M | 0.8% | -36.8% |
| Total revenue | $295.7M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "Based on information available as of October 22, 2026, AppFolio's outlook for fiscal year 2026 follows: • Full year revenue range is increasing to $1.122 - $1.127 billion. • Full year non-GAAP operating margin range as a percentage of revenue is now 26.5% - 27.5%. • Diluted weighted average shares outstanding are expected to be approximately 36 million for the full year."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.70 | $1.80 | -5.5% | $286.7M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $1.93 | $1.98 | -2.8% | $305.8M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.84 | $6.90 | -0.9% | $1.12B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $8.32 | $8.43 | -1.3% | $1.32B | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 64.8% | ±14.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 57.2% | ±18.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 52.8% | ±20.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 51.6% | ±28.6% |