# Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Antero Resources Corporation (AR), nexqual.com/AR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 39.04 (+1.38% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 38.51 · day 37.37–39.14 · 52w 29.1–45.75 · market cap $12.0B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $6.13B, net income $1.12B (18.3% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 10.7x (avg 52.3x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.3x, net debt $2.61B.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AR (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $8.9M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.6M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.18 on a 1–5 scale) (22 analysts), mean target USD 49.64 (range 40–58).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +19.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +92.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.98, revenue estimate $1.60B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.62B | $7.14B | $4.68B | $4.33B | $5.28B | $6.13B |
| Operating income | $23.9M | $2.54B | $396M | $460K | $884M | $1.51B |
| Net income | -$154M | $2.00B | $297M | $93.7M | $675M | $1.12B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.61 | $5.69 | $0.64 | $0.18 | $2.03 | — |
| Free cash flow | $944M | $2.11B | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 0.5% | 35.6% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 24.7% |
| Net margin | -3.3% | 28.0% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
| Revenue growth | +32.3% | +54.5% | -34.4% | -7.6% | +22.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $0K | $0K | $0K | $0K | $210M | — |
| Total debt | $2.13B | $1.18B | $1.54B | $1.49B | $1.40B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 10.7x · P/S 2.0x · EV/EBITDA 6.3x · EV/Sales 2.4x · P/B 1.4x · Earnings yield 9.36% · Net debt $2.61B · EV $14.6B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 16.0x, Dec 2024 117.2x, Dec 2023 23.8x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Einhorn | Greenlight Capital | 1.42% | $55.3M | Added +94.7% |
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 0.06% | $269K | Reduced -4.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Schultz Yvette K | See Remarks | 39,490 | $1.6M | 12.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-04 | Kennedy Michael N. | See Remarks | 185,826 | $7.3M | 14.6% | Yes (adopted November 6, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.18 on a 1–5 scale), 22 analysts; mean target USD 49.64 (low 40, high 58).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Scotiabank | Initiated | Sector Outperform | $46 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $49 → $51 |
| 2026-10-08 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $57 → $51 |
| 2026-10-06 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $58 → $54 |
| 2026-10-05 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $52 → $46 |
| 2026-10-02 | Jefferies | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $56 |
| 2026-09-14 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $52 → $58 |
| 2026-09-02 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Buy | $42 → $48 |
| 2026-09-01 | Raymond James | Target raised | Strong Buy | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-08-17 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $46 → $45 |
| 2026-08-12 | Benchmark | Target raised | Buy | $44 → $47 |
| 2026-08-03 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $53 → $45 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +19.1% | +92.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +19.2% | +14.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 37.8% | 47.6% |
| Max drawdown | -26.4% (Mar 2026→Jun 2026) | -53.6% (Jun 2022→Dec 2023) |

## Peers (Oil & Gas E&P)
RRC (Range Resources Corporation) USD 43.86 +2.14% · SM (SM Energy Company) USD 38.42 -0.49% · APA (APA Corporation) USD 49.44 -0.38% · CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) USD 150.48 -0.25% · VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.) USD 70.61 -1.16% · OVV (Ovintiv Inc. (DE)) USD 69.3 -0.80%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AR's own 10-K filed 2026-02-11 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Antero Midstream Corp (AM) | "Antero Midstream Partners." |

Other companies that name AR in their own reports (relationship from AR's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| supplier | Antero Midstream Corp (AM) | 10-K 2026-02-11 | "Antero Resources is our most significant customer and is one of the largest producers of natural gas and NGLs in North America." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration & Production | $1.50B | 96.4% | +19.0% | $391.5M | 26.0% |
| Antero Midstream | $327.2M | 21.0% | +7.1% | $181.9M | 55.6% |
| Marketing | $56.1M | 3.6% | +66.2% | -$16.0M | -28.5% |
| Total revenue | $1.56B | 100% | — | $375.5M | 24.1% |
The lines above cover 121% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas Production | $688.5M | 44.1% | -0.0% |
| — Natural Gas Liquids Sales (part of Natural Gas Production) | $587.7M | 37.7% | +22.2% |
| — Natural Gas Liquids Sales Ethane (part of Natural Gas Production) | $99.0M | 6.3% | +26.1% |
| — Other Revenue & Income (part of Natural Gas Production) | $1.5M | 0.1% | +81.5% |
| Natural Gas Liquids Sales C3 Ngls | $488.7M | 31.3% | +21.5% |
| Commodity Derivative Fair Value Gains Losses | $160.6M | 10.3% | +200.8% |
| Oil & Condensate | $59.6M | 3.8% | +76.8% |
| Marketings | $56.1M | 3.6% | +66.2% |
| Amortization Of Deferred Revenue Vpp | $5.9M | 0.4% | -7.0% |
| Other | $1.0M | 0.1% | +267.4% |
| Total revenue | $1.56B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 93.6% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2024-12-31: 16% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-11).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "Further, while the region's gross production has remained flat, net production to Antero is expected to exit the year over 25% higher than the prior year.”"
- "Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources said, “Our recently announced cost reduction initiative is expected to decrease our cost structure by $0.70 per Mcfe from 2025 levels, or 25% in total by year-end 2028."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.98 | $0.94 | +4.2% | $1.60B | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.42 | $1.06 | +32.9% | $1.79B | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.46 | $4.15 | +7.3% | $6.81B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $4.67 | $4.20 | +11.1% | $6.86B | 17 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±5.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 49.4% | ±5.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 43.6% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 43.8% | ±8.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 40.5% | ±9.1% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 40.3% | ±10.1% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 38.5% | ±10.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 38.5% | ±12.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 36.5% | ±14.0% |