# Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ARCT · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT), nexqual.com/ARCT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 12.15 (+0.66% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 12.07 · day 11.94–12.44 · 52w 5.5–17.96 · market cap $345M · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $29.4M, net income -$93.3M (-317.6% margin), free cash flow -$72.8M (SEC filings).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 23.8 (range 9–41).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +26.2% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -73.0% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.68, revenue estimate $8.0M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-05
- Dividend: ARCT paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 23.90% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 7.0 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4M | $206M | $167M | $152M | $82.0M | $29.4M |
| Operating income | -$203M | $12.2M | -$78.2M | -$95.7M | -$76.3M | -$102M |
| Net income | -$204M | $9.3M | -$29.7M | -$80.9M | -$65.8M | -$93.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$7.74 | $0.35 | -$1.12 | -$3.00 | -$2.40 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$138M | $24.3M | -$21.0M | -$60.4M | -$74.5M | -$72.8M |
| Operating margin | -1641.3% | 5.9% | -46.9% | -62.8% | -93.0% | -348.3% |
| Net margin | -1648.0% | 4.5% | -17.8% | -53.1% | -80.2% | -317.6% |
| Revenue growth | +29.6% | +1566.8% | -19.0% | -8.7% | -46.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $370M | $392M | $292M | $237M | $231M | — |
| Total debt | $63.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 11.8x · P/B 2.0x · FCF yield -21.09% · Earnings yield -27.01%

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 23.8 (low 9, high 41).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Leerink Partners | Target raised | Outperform | $13 → $19 |
| 2026-09-24 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $8 → $20 |
| 2026-09-24 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $23 → $20 |
| 2026-07-02 | Freedom Broker | Initiated | Buy | $27 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +26.2% | -73.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +26.3% | -23.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 75.7% | 89.1% |
| Max drawdown | -44.5% (Oct 2025→Jul 2026) | -88.2% (Dec 2021→Jul 2026) |

## Dividends
ARCT paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
5,459,944 shares sold short, 23.90% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 5,467,974 shares (-0.1%). Days to cover: 7.0 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Biotechnology)
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 317.33 -0.45% · ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 96.65 +0.71% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 93.07 +1.20% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.39 -1.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.45 -0.04% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 89.06 -0.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ARCT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ARCT's own 10-K filed 2026-03-03 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000119312526088391/arct-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | CSL Seqirus | "our compliance, and ability to remain in compliance, with the requirements of our collaboration agreements, including our collaboration with Seqirus Inc. ("CSL Seqirus"), and our ability to prevail in any disputes regard…" |
| Partner | CSL | "In CSL Limited's half-year results presented on February 11, 2026, CSL Limited reported an accounting write-down of approximately $430 million attributable to our collaboration agreement with CSL Seqirus, citing declinin…" |
| Partner | Meiji Seika Pharma | "In April 2025, our Japanese partner, Meiji, published an analysis characterizing the distribution and clearance of KOSTAIVE (ARCT-154) encoded spike protein and non-structural proteins nsP1, nsP2, nsP3 and nsP4 in the ly…" |
| Partner | Seqirus | "our compliance, and ability to remain in compliance, with the requirements of our collaboration agreements, including our collaboration with Seqirus Inc. ("CSL Seqirus"), and our ability to prevail in any disputes regard…" |
| Partner | ARCALIS | "We have built a global manufacturing footprint with our partners, including Aldevron, Catalent, Recipharm, Polymun and ARCALIS." |
| Competitor | Moderna (MRNA) | "We are aware of product candidates of the following companies that we consider as competitors or future competitors to ARCT-032: Moderna/Vertex, Recode Therapeutics, Eloxx Pharmaceuticals, 4DMT, Spirovant, SalioGen, Spli…" |
| Competitor | Pfizer (PFE) | "We consider the following companies with approved or late-stage clinical development vaccines as some of our competitors or future competitors to our partnered COVID-19 vaccine franchise: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Sa…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grant | $2.1M | 70.3% | -45.2% |
| Collaboration Revenue | $880,000 | 29.7% | -96.4% |
| Total revenue | $3.0M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The decision to advance ARCT-032 into Phase 3 is expected in Q4 2026, triggering significant resources and support from Thermo Fisher. ·"
- "If Phase 2 yields positive results, Arcturus expects to conduct its Phase 3 program through Thermo Fisher's PPD™ clinical research business."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.68 | $-0.88 | +$0.20 | $8.0M | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.93 | $-1.00 | +$0.07 | $5.7M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.45 | $-3.86 | +$0.40 | $18.6M | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-3.70 | $-4.02 | +$0.32 | $28.8M | 10 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±22.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 111.1% | ±22.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 100.2% | ±30.3% |
| 2027-03-19 | 141 | 97.6% | ±47.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 231 | 102.4% | ±62.2% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.84 | −$1.03 | Beat +18.4% | +18.4% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.95 | −$1.01 | Beat +5.9% | +1.0% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$1.03 | −$0.76 | Miss −35.5% | -9.2% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.49 | −$0.80 | Beat +38.7% | -0.6% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +25.0% |
| May 12, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +8.0% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -9.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +7.1% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Schedule 13G/A | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc., Amova Asset Management Co., Ltd.: 5.9% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000121465926013368/0001214659-26-013368-index.htm |
| 2026-10-07 | Schedule 13G/A | Federated Hermes, Inc., Voting Shares Irrevocable Trust: 5.9% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000162363226001546/0001623632-26-001546-index.htm |
| 2026-09-23 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000119380526001277/0001193805-26-001277-index.htm |
| 2026-08-25 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000119380526001130/0001193805-26-001130-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000119312526338090/0001193125-26-338090-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000119380526001039/0001193805-26-001039-index.htm |
| 2026-07-02 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure — “On June 26, 2026, Arcturus Therapeutics, Inc. (" Arcturus "), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (the " Company "), entered into a series of agreements with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (" Thermo Fisher ") and certain of Thermo Fisher's affiliates to establish a strategic collaboration for the provision of contract development and manufacturing organization (" CDMO ") and contract research organization (" CRO ") services in connection with the development of…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768224/000119380526000910/0001193805-26-000910-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.