# Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ARDX · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX), nexqual.com/ARDX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 3.1 (+0.00% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 3.1 · day 3.08–3.16 · 52w 2.96–8.4 · market cap $800M · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $451M, net income -$55.7M (-12.4% margin), free cash flow -$17.9M (SEC filings).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.91 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 12.8 (range 8–18).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -38.1% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y +156.2% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD -0.02, revenue estimate $129M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-03
- Dividend: ARDX paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 11.96% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 6.7 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.1M | $52.2M | $124M | $334M | $407M | $451M |
| Gross profit | $9.1M | $48.0M | $107M | $283M | $368M | — |
| Operating income | -$154M | -$63.8M | -$63.3M | -$27.9M | -$41.0M | -$35.5M |
| Net income | -$158M | -$67.2M | -$66.1M | -$39.1M | -$61.6M | -$55.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.52 | -$0.42 | -$0.30 | -$0.17 | -$0.26 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$154M | -$70.1M | -$90.1M | -$45.8M | -$44.0M | -$17.9M |
| Gross margin | 90.1% | 92.1% | 85.7% | 84.8% | 90.3% | — |
| Operating margin | -1528.6% | -122.2% | -50.8% | -8.4% | -10.1% | -7.9% |
| Net margin | -1566.5% | -128.9% | -53.1% | -11.7% | -15.1% | -12.4% |
| Revenue growth | +33.4% | +416.6% | +138.6% | +168.1% | +22.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $117M | $124M | $184M | $250M | $265M | — |
| Total debt | $64.5M | $26.7M | $49.8M | $151M | $203M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.8x · EV/Sales 1.7x · P/B 5.4x · FCF yield -2.24% · Earnings yield -6.96% · Net cash $30.0M · EV $770M

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.91 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 12.8 (low 8, high 18).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Wedbush | Reiterated | Outperform | $9 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wedbush | Reiterated | Outperform | $9 |
| 2026-08-17 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $16 → $15 |
| 2026-08-10 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $14 → $11 |
| 2026-08-07 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $13 → $10 |
| 2026-08-07 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $17 → $14 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -38.1% | +156.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -38.3% | +20.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 61.3% | 76.7% |
| Max drawdown | -62.5% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -68.4% (Feb 2024→Oct 2026) |

## Dividends
ARDX paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
30,237,216 shares sold short, 11.96% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 25,602,541 shares (+18.1%). Days to cover: 6.7 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Biotechnology)
KOD (Kodiak Sciences Inc) USD 100.4 +3.46% · ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 96.65 +0.71% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 93.07 +1.20% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.39 -1.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.45 -0.04% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 89.06 -0.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ARDX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ARDX's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437402/000143740226000013/ardx-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | METiS Therapeutics | "We have an exclusive license agreement with METiS Therapeutics Inc., (METiS Agreement) for the development and commercialization of a portfolio of TGR5 agonist compounds that we discovered and developed for all therapeut…" |

Other companies that name ARDX in their own reports (relationship from ARDX's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. (TPST) | 10-K 2026-03-30 | "Before Ardelyx, Mr. Raab was a partner at New Enterprise Associates ("NEA"), where he focused on the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product sales, net | $118.1M | 97.7% | +31.1% |
| — IBSRELA (part of Product sales, net) | $86.2M | 71.3% | +32.6% |
| — XPHOZAH (part of Product sales, net) | $31.9M | 26.4% | +27.4% |
| Product & Service Other | $2.7M | 2.3% | -63.8% |
| — Product supply revenue (part of Product & Service Other) | $2.0M | 1.6% | -68.1% |
| — Non-cash royalty revenue related to the sale of future royalties (part of Product & Service Other) | $676,000 | 0.6% | -51.0% |
| — Licensing revenue (part of Product & Service Other) | $96,000 | 0.1% | +380.0% |
| Total revenue | $120.9M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $377.8M | 92.8% | +18.4% |
| Asia Pacific | $29.2M | 7.2% | +103.4% |
| North America | $342,000 | 0.1% | +338.5% |
| Total revenue | $407.3M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 76.3%, 16%, 14.4%, 14.4%, 13.4% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.02 | $0.04 | −$0.06 | $128.7M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.04 | $0.10 | -58.1% | $143.8M | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.19 | $-0.05 | −$0.13 | $487.2M | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.29 | $0.52 | -43.6% | $624.1M | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±45.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 239.6% | ±45.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 155.0% | ±53.2% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 77.6% | ±43.8% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.07 | −$0.05 | Miss −40.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.15 | −$0.14 | Miss −7.1% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.00 | $0.01 | Miss −$0.01 | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.00 | −$0.07 | Beat +$0.07 | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).