# Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ARI · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI), nexqual.com/ARI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 6.3 (-0.63% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 6.34 · day 6.3–6.43 · 52w 6.11–11.24 · market cap $810M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $238M, net income $132M (55.5% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 6.1x (avg 19.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $57K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($57K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts), mean target USD 8 (range 7.75–8.25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +7.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.05, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $285M | $304M | $345M | $304M | $272M | $238M |
| Net income | $224M | $265M | $58.1M | -$120M | $127M | $132M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.46 | $1.68 | $0.29 | -$0.97 | $0.81 | — |
| Net margin | 78.6% | 87.4% | 16.9% | -39.4% | 46.7% | 55.5% |
| Revenue growth | +2.1% | +6.7% | +13.5% | -11.9% | -10.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $343M | $222M | $225M | $317M | $140M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 6.1x · P/S 3.4x · P/B 0.7x · Earnings yield 16.30% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 17.40% · Buyback yield (TTM) 15.25%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.6x, Dec 2023 28.5x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Salvati Michael | Director | 960 | $7K | 0.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Whonder Carmencita N.M. | Director | 4,574 | $50K | 15.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts; mean target USD 8 (low 7.75, high 8.25).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.3% | +7.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +0.3% | +1.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 19.2% | 31.7% |
| Max drawdown | -14.2% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -40.1% (Nov 2021→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
ORC (Orchid Island Capital, Inc.) USD 4.9 +0.62% · CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) USD 8.45 +2.55% · ADAM (Adamas Trust, Inc.) USD 7.73 +3.90% · MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.) USD 6.62 +2.32% · IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) USD 5.52 +1.85% · ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) USD 2.96 +2.07%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ARI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ARI's own 10-K filed 2026-02-10 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467760/000119312526044725/ari-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Athene Holding Ltd. (ATH-PA) | "On January 27, 2026, we entered into the Purchase Agreement with Athene." |
| Partner | Operating | "In connection with the Asset Sale, we also entered into the Management Agreement Side Letter with Operating LLC and the Manager, and the Expense Reimbursement Letter Agreement with Apollo Management Holdings." |
| Partner | Apollo Management Holdings | "In connection with the Asset Sale, we also entered into the Management Agreement Side Letter with Operating LLC and the Manager, and the Expense Reimbursement Letter Agreement with Apollo Management Holdings." |
| Partner | Turner Consulting II | "In September 2018, we entered a joint venture with Turner Consulting II, LLC ("Turner Consulting"), through an entity which owns the underlying property that secures our loan." |
| Partner | Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) | "AGM's CISO, in coordination with the Apollo Technology and ERM teams, works collaboratively across Apollo to implement a program designed to protect its information systems from cybersecurity threats and to promptly resp…" |
| Partner | WG Bowtie | "In the third quarter of 2022, we contributed an assemblage of properties in downtown Brooklyn, NY to a joint venture with WG Bowtie, LLC, a real estate developer." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.05 | $0.06 | -11.1% | $0 | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.05 | $0.08 | -34.4% | $0 | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.76 | $-0.45 | +515.5% | $42.0M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.23 | $0.56 | -59.7% | $0 | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±30.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 85.5% | ±30.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 61.6% | ±32.5% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 43.4% | ±28.2% |