# Arm Holdings plc (ARM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ARM · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Arm Holdings plc (ARM), nexqual.com/ARM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 210.33 (+0.11% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 210.1 · day 208.5–215.05 · 52w 100.02–452.7 · market cap $225B · NMS

## Key facts
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ARM (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 17 Form 4 filings, $63.9M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($43.4M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.16 on a 1–5 scale) (43 analysts), mean target USD 290.71 (range 125–500).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +23.2% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +246.2% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.47, revenue estimate $1.38B.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold ARM. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $1.4M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 of 17 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Child Jason | Chief Financial Officer | 10,400 | $3.1M | 6.3% | Yes (adopted May 22, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-27 | Child Jason | Chief Financial Officer | 10,400 | $2.7M | 6% | Yes (adopted May 22, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Bartels Laura Kathleen | Chief Accounting Officer | 11,306 | $4.4M | 48.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Abbey William | Chief Commercial Officer | 6,566 | $2.6M | 24.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-28 | Abbey William | Chief Commercial Officer | 4,200 | $1.4M | 13.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-22 | Abbey William | Chief Commercial Officer | 2,300 | $703K | 6.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-21 | Abbey William | Chief Commercial Officer | 4,655 | $1.3M | 12.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-21 | Eaton Charlotte Claire | Chief People Officer | 7,805 | $2.3M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20…2026-05-21 | Eaton Charlotte Claire | Chief People Officer | 7,100 | $1.9M | 47.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-19…2026-05-20 | Abbey William | Chief Commercial Officer | 15,956 | $3.7M | 29.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | Child Jason | Chief Financial Officer | 31,920 | $7.2M | 15.5% | Yes (adopted May 30, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-19 | Collins Spencer | Chief Legal Officer | 40,941 | $8.8M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Grisenthwaite Richard Roy | Chief Architect | 24,339 | $5.1M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-23…2026-05-15 | Abbey William | Chief Commercial Officer | 10,154 | $2.2M | 15.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Collins Spencer | Chief Legal Officer | 51,961 | $11.0M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-22 | Child Jason | Chief Financial Officer | 21,280 | $3.8M | 12.2% | Yes (adopted May 30, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-14 | Haas Rene A. | Chief Executive Officer | 9,299 | $1.5M | 3.3% | Yes (adopted June 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.16 on a 1–5 scale), 43 analysts; mean target USD 290.71 (low 125, high 500).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Rosenblatt | Target lowered | Buy | $270 → $250 |
| 2026-07-30 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $360 → $320 |
| 2026-07-30 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $202 → $212 |
| 2026-07-30 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $475 → $340 |
| 2026-07-30 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $475 → $350 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $350 → $280 |
| 2026-07-30 | Guggenheim | Reiterated | Buy | $255 |
| 2026-07-30 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $255 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $410 → $350 |
| 2026-07-21 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $300 → $320 |
| 2026-07-20 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $470 → $360 |
| 2026-07-14 | HSBC | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $255 → $315 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2023-09-11) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +23.2% | +246.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +23.3% | +48.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 78.4% | 76.7% |
| Max drawdown | -52.2% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -52.1% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Semiconductors)
MRVL (Marvell Technology, Inc.) USD 228.51 +2.26% · TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated) USD 284.69 +1.86% · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) USD 391.07 +1.38% · QCOM (QUALCOMM Incorporated) USD 175.91 +1.78% · INTC (Intel Corporation) USD 86.96 +1.72% · ASX (ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd) USD 38.69 +2.52%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ARM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ARM's own 20-F filed 2026-05-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973239/000197323926000097/arm-20260331.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | The Nasdaq Stock Market | "As a result, in accordance with SEC and Nasdaq rules, we rely on and comply with certain home country governance requirements and exemptions thereunder rather than complying" |
| Customer | Intel (INTC) | "Ms. Schooler also held vice president and general manager positions at a number of Intel start-up initiatives in the embedded/IoT, networking and storage businesses, including architecture, product development and custom…" |
| Partner | Qualcomm (QCOM) | "In this new action, Qualcomm asserted that we failed to satisfy certain delivery obligations under Qualcomm's Architecture License Agreement with us (the "Qualcomm ALA")." |
| Partner | OpenAI and Oracle | "For example, in January 2025, SoftBank Group announced the Stargate Project, a joint venture between SoftBank Group, OpenAI and Oracle Corporation, to invest in building new AI infrastructure, where we were named as a ke…" |
| Partner | Apple (AAPL) | "Established in 1990, Arm began as a joint venture between Acorn Computers, Apple Computer, and VLSI Technology." |
| Partner | Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) | "Definitive Agreement with Cadence Design Systems, Inc." |
| Related party | SOFTBANK GROUP CORP. (SFTBF) | "For example, we have been, and may in the future be, engaged to advise on or design chips for certain existing customers and other third parties, including affiliates of SoftBank Group, across a variety of use cases and …" |

Other companies that name ARM in their own reports (relationship from ARM's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | QUALCOMM INC/DE (QCOM) | 10-K 2025-11-05 | "Our counterclaim seeks a declaratory judgment that we did not breach the Nuvia ALA or the Technology License Agreement between Nuvia and Arm, and that, following the acquisition of Nuvia, our architec…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.47 | $0.44 | +8.7% | $1.38B | 28 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.55 | $0.55 | +0.1% | $1.52B | 28 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-03-31) | $2.23 | $2.18 | +2.5% | $6.06B | 39 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-03-31) | $3.07 | $3.08 | -0.3% | $8.27B | 40 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±13.8%; earnings reaction alone ±8.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 6 | 74.4% | ±8.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | 13 | 88.2% | ±13.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 20 | 80.9% | ±15.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 27 | 76.6% | ±17.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 34 | 72.9% | ±18.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 41 | 71.2% | ±19.3% |
| 2026-12-18 | 55 | 69.1% | ±21.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 83 | 65.8% | ±25.1% |