# Accelerant Holdings (ARX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ARX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Accelerant Holdings (ARX), nexqual.com/ARX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 19.76 (+0.05% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 19.75 · day 19.73–19.85 · 52w 9.18–19.9 · market cap $4.29B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.15B, net income -$1.28B (-112.1% margin) (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold ARX (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 17 Form 4 filings, $20.9M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($11K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.33 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 20.25 (range 20.25–20.25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +59.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -33.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-11, EPS estimate USD 0.2, revenue estimate $265M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $344M | $603M | $913M | $1.15B |
| Net income | -$64.1M | $22.9M | -$1.35B | -$1.28B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.29 | $0.14 | -$7.49 | — |
| Net margin | -18.6% | 3.8% | -147.4% | -112.1% |
| Revenue growth | — | +75.2% | +51.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $775M | $1.23B | $1.72B | — |
| Total debt | — | $121M | $121M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 3.7x · EV/Sales 2.5x · P/B 6.0x · Earnings yield -29.93% · Net cash $1.45B · EV $2.84B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold ARX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Coleman | Tiger Global Management | <0.01% | $879K | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
16 of 17 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Meriwether Karen Sue | Director | 542 | $11K | 2.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-13 | Hasley Nancy | Director | 20,489 | $401K | 1.1% | Yes (adopted December 8, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-10…2026-08-11 | Oneill Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | 152,835 | $1.9M | 2.3% | Yes (adopted March 23, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-10 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 80,000 | $967K | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-03 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 80,000 | $965K | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-27…2026-07-28 | Oneill Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | 215,114 | $3.1M | 3.1% | Yes (adopted March 23, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-27 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 95,223 | $1.4M | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-27 | Sternberg Matthew David | COO, Risk Exchange | 17,568 | $257K | 2.9% | Yes (adopted December 7, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-17…2026-07-20 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 94,777 | $1.3M | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-14…2026-07-15 | Oneill Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | 165,886 | $2.1M | 2.3% | Yes (adopted March 23, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-13 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 80,000 | $1.1M | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-06 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 80,000 | $1.1M | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-29 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 80,000 | $1.0M | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-25…2026-06-26 | Oneill Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | 147,000 | $1.9M | 2% | Yes (adopted March 23, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-23 | Hasley Nancy | Director | 35,000 | $459K | 1.8% | Yes (adopted December 8, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-23 | Radke Jeffrey L | Co-Founder, CEO | 80,000 | $1.0M | 0.3% | Yes (adopted March 24, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-22…2026-06-23 | Oneill Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | 147,000 | $1.9M | 2% | Yes (adopted March 23, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.33 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 20.25 (low 20.25, high 20.25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | TD Cowen | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $30 → $20.25 |
| 2026-09-23 | Raymond James | Downgrade | Market Perform → Underperform |  |
| 2026-08-14 | Citizens | Downgrade | Market Outperform → Market Perform |  |
| 2026-08-13 | William Blair | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform |  |
| 2026-07-09 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $17 → $16 |
| 2026-07-06 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $16 → $14 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2025-07-21) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +59.4% | -33.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +59.6% | -27.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 67.3% | 75.4% |
| Max drawdown | -45.4% (Dec 2025→Feb 2026) | -65.9% (Aug 2025→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Insurance Brokers)
CRVL (CorVel Corp.) USD 83.88 +3.93% · BWIN (The Baldwin Insurance Group, In) USD 31.89 -0.09% · NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.) USD 28.72 +1.16% · LIFE (Ethos Technologies Inc.) USD 43.53 -1.56% · GSHD (Goosehead Insurance, Inc.) USD 50.62 +11.69% · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.49 +5.28%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ARX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ARX's own 10-K filed 2026-03-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1997350/000199735026000003/arx-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Accelerant Agency | "We purchase a local policy in Ireland for Accelerant Agency Limited, with a $5 million (£3.717 million) limit in the per claim and no aggregate limit." |
| Partner | Flywheel Re | "As of December 31, 2025, our Risk Capital Partners include 18 Risk Exchange insurance companies and 77 third-party reinsurers or institutional investors contributing capital to Flywheel Re." |
| Partner | Federal Deposit Insurance | "Consequently, at any given time, we may hold certain funds of our Members and Risk Capital Partners, which subjects us to various regulatory regimes governing the holding and management of these funds, including under th…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2025-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underwriting | $117.6M | 44.0% | +40.5% |
| Exchange Services | $85.0M | 31.8% | +33.6% |
| MGA Operations | $80.8M | 30.2% | +88.3% |
| Total revenue | $267.4M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 106% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $258.5M | 72.4% | +98.4% |
| UK and EU | $98.4M | 27.6% | +10.8% |
| Total revenue | $356.9M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-13)

- "In addition, Accelerant will not provide guidance for the third quarter of 2026 or the full year of 2026 as a result of the pending transaction."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.20 | $0.20 | +0.1% | $265.4M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.21 | $0.21 | -3.6% | $274.6M | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.89 | $0.74 | +20.1% | $1.14B | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.94 | $0.92 | +1.5% | $1.25B | 9 |