# Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ASTH · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH), nexqual.com/ASTH" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 38.01 (+1.77% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 37.35 · day 37.21–38.47 · 52w 18.08–51.6 · market cap $1.89B · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.84B, net income $40.5M (1.1% margin), free cash flow $94.4M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 46.5x (avg 39.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$40.4M vs operating income $100M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈28.2x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 34.7% effective rate).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +14.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -47.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.88, revenue estimate $1.02B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $774M | $1.14B | $1.39B | $2.03B | $3.18B | $3.84B |
| Gross profit | $178M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $98.2M | $104M | $84.6M | $89.3M | $78.5M | $100M |
| Net income | $68.9M | $45.2M | $60.7M | $43.1M | $22.5M | $40.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.52 | $0.99 | $1.29 | $0.90 | $0.46 | — |
| Free cash flow | $51.1M | $59.2M | $39.7M | $44.2M | $104M | $94.4M |
| Gross margin | 23.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 12.7% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Net margin | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Revenue growth | +12.6% | +47.8% | +21.2% | +46.7% | +56.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $287M | $294M | $296M | $291M | — | — |
| Total debt | $184M | $204M | $278M | $435M | $1.04B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 46.5x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈28.2x · P/S 0.5x · P/FCF 20.0x · P/B 2.3x · FCF yield 5.01% · Earnings yield 2.15% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.10% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.94%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 54.5x, Dec 2024 35.1x, Dec 2023 29.6x.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Freedom Capital Markets | Maintained | Buy | $50 |
| 2026-09-15 | Oppenheimer | Initiated | Outperform | $53 |
| 2026-08-11 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $47 → $55 |
| 2026-08-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $50 → $53 |
| 2026-07-14 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $45 → $50 |
| 2026-07-14 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $50 → $65 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +14.6% | -47.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +14.7% | -12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 68.0% | 58.8% |
| Max drawdown | -46.4% (Oct 2025→Feb 2026) | -83.5% (Nov 2021→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Medical Care Facilities)
AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) USD 46.82 +8.86% · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) USD 12.36 +2.49% · SGRY (Surgery Partners, Inc.) USD 15.9 +3.25% · HCSG (Healthcare Services Group, Inc.) USD 24.79 +14.19% · SNDA (Sonida Senior Living, Inc.) USD 33.87 +1.20% · CMPS (COMPASS Pathways Plc - American) USD 11.63 -1.77%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ASTH · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ASTH's own 10-K filed 2026-03-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083446/000119312526103128/asth-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Prospect Medical Holdings | "In such event, we would have limited to no recourse against the Prospect PhysicianCo Entities due to their bankruptcy filing, the elimination of the escrow account to cover, among other things, non-assumed liabilities of…" |
| Competitor | UnitedHealth (UNH) | "In the greater Los Angeles area, such competitors include Regal Medical Group and Lakeside Medical Group, which are part of Heritage Provider Network ("Heritage"), as well as Optum, a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Partners | $932.8M | 95.9% | +47.7% | $42.9M | 4.6% |
| Care Enablement | $85.6M | 8.8% | +109.3% | $16.4M | 19.2% |
| Care Delivery | $74.7M | 7.7% | +94.6% | -$3.0M | -4.0% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$22.0M | — |
| Total revenue | $972.5M | 100% | — | $34.3M | 3.5% |
The lines above cover 112.4% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Capitation Revenue | $905.8M | 93.1% | +47.5% |
| Health Care Patient Service | $23.0M | 2.4% | +28.5% |
| Health Care Other | $21.8M | 2.2% | +41.6% |
| Management Service | $13.2M | 1.4% | +412.7% |
| Product & Service Other | $8.7M | 0.9% | +79.8% |
| Total revenue | $972.5M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 18.5%, 15.3%, 10.3%, 10.1% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-10).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.88 | $0.79 | +11.0% | $1.02B | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.65 | $0.66 | -0.8% | $1.02B | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.07 | $2.92 | +5.0% | $3.98B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.64 | $3.41 | +6.6% | $4.38B | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±18.5%; last 8 reports averaged ±15.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 78.3% | ±18.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 67.2% | ±22.0% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 61.6% | ±28.8% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 62.0% | ±37.9% |