# Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ASTL · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), nexqual.com/ASTL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 4.94 (+2.92% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 4.8 · day 4.67–4.99 · 52w 3.16–5.9 · market cap $522M · NGM

## Key facts
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (4 analysts).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +12.9% vs S&P 500 +13.2%; 5Y -52.0% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD -0.73, revenue estimate $229M.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 4 analysts.

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +12.9% | -52.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.2% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +13.0% | -13.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 68.5% | 51.5% |
| Max drawdown | -38.1% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -70.9% (Nov 2024→Sep 2025) |

## Peers (Steel)
MTUS (Metallus Inc.) USD 21.17 +0.19% · NWPX (NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.) USD 99.67 -0.17% · SID (Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ) USD 0.8 -7.55% · WS (Worthington Steel, Inc.) USD 42.35 -0.84% · SIM (Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.) USD 25.86 +0.15% · CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.) USD 13.94 +0.29%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ASTL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name ASTL in their own reports (relationship from ASTL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| supplier | SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC) | 10-K 2026-02-20 | "(2)Customers under long-term, take-or-pay agreements include Cleveland-Cliffs Steel Holding Corporation and Cleveland-Cliffs Steel LLC, both subsidiaries of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and collectively refe…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.73 | $-0.31 | −$0.42 | $229.5M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.20 | $-0.09 | −$0.11 | $295.7M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.33 | $-3.02 | −$0.31 | $1.13B | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.36 | $-0.31 | −$0.05 | $1.78B | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±16.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 77.7% | ±16.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 51 | 60.5% | ±40.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 79 | 72.6% | ±27.6% |
| 2027-02-19 | 114 | 71.3% | ±32.3% |
| 2027-05-21 | 205 | 75.4% | ±44.8% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.36 | −$0.80 | Beat +55.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$1.50 | −$1.15 | Miss −30.4% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$2.54 | −$1.08 | Miss −135.2% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$1.14 | −$0.98 | Miss −16.3% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 25-NSE | Removal from exchange listing | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000135445726000999/0001354457-26-000999-index.htm |
| 2026-10-16 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Oct 15, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000119312526423116/0001193125-26-423116-index.htm |
| 2026-10-02 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Oct 1, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000119312526411012/0001193125-26-411012-index.htm |
| 2026-09-02 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Sep 2, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000119312526379439/0001193125-26-379439-index.htm |
| 2026-08-18 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Aug 17, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000119312526354524/0001193125-26-354524-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | MMCAP International Inc. SPC, MM Asset Management Inc.: 10.4% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000110465926097125/0001104659-26-097125-index.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | Schedule 13G | DONALD SMITH & CO., INC., DSCO Value Fund, L.P.: 5.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000081437526000040/0000814375-26-000040-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000110465926088340/0001104659-26-088340-index.htm |
| 2026-07-17 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Jul 16, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000119312526306406/0001193125-26-306406-index.htm |
| 2026-07-01 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860805/000119312526291071/0001193125-26-291071-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.