# Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AUR · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR), nexqual.com/AUR" · informational, not investment advice.

## AUR major shareholder filing: Schedule 13D/A, Sep 17, 2026
Uber Technologies, Inc. filed a Schedule 13D/A on Sep 17, 2026, reporting up to 9.20% of the class (more than 5% owner that may seek to influence the company). Item 4, Purpose of Transaction, quoted:

> On September 15, 2026, Neben Holdings, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Reporting Person, sold 29,369,611 shares of Class A Common Stock to a financial institution in a block sale transaction at a price per share of $6.2050 (the "Block Sale").

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000155278126000494/0001552781-26-000494-index.htm

**Price:** USD 5.09 (-0.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 5.12 · day 5.02–5.17 · 52w 3.6–8.57 · market cap $10.2B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $7.0M, net income -$933M (-13328.6% margin), free cash flow -$800M (SEC filings).
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AUR (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $1.23B; 9 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.23B); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $498K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 12.13 (range 3.59–18).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -0.2% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y -49.4% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD -0.13, revenue estimate $2.9M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $82.0M | $68.0M | $0K | $0K | $3.0M | $7.0M |
| Gross profit | — | — | $0K | $0K | -$14.0M | — |
| Operating income | -$731M | -$1.85B | -$835M | -$786M | -$901M | -$1.00B |
| Net income | -$755M | -$1.72B | -$796M | -$748M | -$816M | -$933M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.22 | -$1.51 | -$0.60 | -$0.46 | -$0.44 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$612M | -$523M | -$613M | -$645M | -$612M | -$800M |
| Gross margin | — | — | — | — | -466.7% | — |
| Operating margin | -891.5% | -2723.5% | — | — | -30033.3% | -14357.1% |
| Net margin | -920.7% | -2533.8% | — | — | -27200.0% | -13328.6% |
| Revenue growth | — | -17.1% | -100.0% | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.61B | $1.10B | $1.20B | $1.22B | $1.28B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/S 1457.3x · P/B 5.7x · FCF yield -7.84% · Earnings yield -9.15%

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold AUR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 0.72% | $74.3M | Added +632.8% |
| Daniel Loeb | Third Point | 0.16% | $7.6M | Unchanged |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | <0.01% | $222K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 9 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Uber Technologies, Inc |  | 29,369,611 | $182M | 15.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Volpi Michelangelo | Director | 2,842,682 | $19.9M | 75.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Uber Technologies, Inc |  | 72,000,000 | $472M | 27.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-11…2026-08-13 | Volpi Michelangelo | Director | 1,479,266 | $10.3M | 61.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-07…2026-08-10 | Volpi Michelangelo | Director | 1,889,023 | $13.3M | 66.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-05 | Volpi Michelangelo | Director | 179,782 | $1.3M | 7.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Uber Technologies, Inc |  | 67,500,000 | $479M | 20.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-28 | Hoffman Reid | Director | 1,202,354 | $8.7M | 17.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-15…2026-05-18 | Hoffman Reid | Director | 5,846,133 | $45.5M | 51.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $498K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Wehner David M. | Director | 82,500 | $498K | 6.04 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.23 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 12.13 (low 3.59, high 18).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $15 → $16 |
| 2026-09-25 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated | Overweight | $12 |
| 2026-09-24 | Amerx | Reiterated | Hold |  |
| 2026-09-24 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $6 → $7 |
| 2026-09-24 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $15 → $17 |
| 2026-09-24 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $13 |
| 2026-09-11 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $14 → $18 |
| 2026-07-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated | Overweight | $12 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -0.2% | -49.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | -0.2% | -12.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 66.9% | 89.1% |
| Max drawdown | -42.7% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -93.0% (Nov 2021→Dec 2022) |

## Peers (Auto Parts)
BWA (BorgWarner Inc.) USD 55.93 +0.36% · APTV (Aptiv PLC) USD 44.08 +0.99% · ALSN (Allison Transmission Holdings, ) USD 109.3 +1.51% · ALV (Autoliv, Inc.) USD 115.55 -0.39% · MOD (Modine Manufacturing Company) USD 143.54 +5.15% · GPC (Genuine Parts Company) USD 121.39 -0.34%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AUR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AUR's own 10-K filed 2026-02-11 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000016/aur-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Uber (UBER) | "•Uber, a leading ride hailing company globally." |
| Partner | Toyota (TM) | "•Toyota, a leading vehicle manufacturer globally." |
| Partner | Allen & Company | "On February 14, 2025, we entered into a sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., TD Securities (USA) LLC, and Allen & Company LLC, as sales agents (the "Sales Agents"), pursuant to which we may, from time to time, s…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-28)

- "With truck delivery expected in 2027 and 2028, Charger plans to use the Aurora Driver to add capacity on its network and drive higher utilization, starting between Dallas and Laredo, one of its busiest freight routes in the Sun Belt."
- "With weekly output steadily improving, we now expect to achieve our targeted production rate of 20 trucks per week in early December."
- "We expect cash use of approximately $250 million during the fourth quarter of 2026 as we continue to scale our driverless fleet."
- "Reflecting a production ramp about six weeks behind our prior plan, we now expect 2026 revenue of approximately $9 million, which continues to represent substantial year-over-year growth."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.13 | $-0.12 | −$0.01 | $2.9M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.13 | $-0.12 | −$0.01 | $9.0M | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.49 | $-0.54 | +$0.05 | $15.0M | 3 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.45 | $-0.42 | −$0.03 | $187.7M | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 1 | 183.0% | ±8.2% |
| 2026-11-06 | 8 | 93.8% | ±18.6% |
| 2026-11-13 | 15 | 157.5% | ±21.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 71.8% | ±17.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 29 | 76.0% | ±18.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 36 | 138.4% | ±46.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 69.5% | ±21.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 75.5% | ±28.9% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.14 | −$0.12 | Miss −16.7% | +0.5% |
| May 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.11 | −$0.12 | Beat +8.3% | +9.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.08 | −$0.12 | Beat +33.3% | -5.4% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.08 | −$0.12 | Beat +33.3% | -3.2% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -2.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -0.4% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +34.6% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | — | — | — | — | -24.8% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Sep 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000094/0001828108-26-000094-index.htm |
| 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000092/0001828108-26-000092-index.htm |
| 2026-09-23 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000082/0001828108-26-000082-index.htm |
| 2026-09-17 | Schedule 13D/A | Uber Technologies, Inc.: 9.2% of shares, 5%+ holder that may seek to influence the company (amended) — “On September 15, 2026, Neben Holdings, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Reporting Person, sold 29,369,611 shares of Class A Common Stock to a financial institution in a block sale transaction at a price per share of $6.2050 (the "Block…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000155278126000494/0001552781-26-000494-index.htm |
| 2026-08-19 | Schedule 13D/A | Uber Technologies, Inc.: 10.9% of shares, 5%+ holder that may seek to influence the company (amended) — “and restated as follows: On August 17, 2026, Neben Holdings, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Reporting Person, sold 72,000,000 shares of Class A Common Stock to a financial institution in a block sale transaction at a price per share of $6.55 (the "Block Sale"). The…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000155278126000453/0001552781-26-000453-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.: 18.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000189761226000612/0001897612-26-000612-index.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | Schedule 13G/A | Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc.: 11.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000089542126000245/0000895421-26-000245-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | Schedule 13D/A | Index Ventures Growth III (Jersey), L.P., Yucca (Jersey) SLP: 2.2% of shares, 5%+ holder that may seek to influence the company (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000119312526340465/0001193125-26-340465-index.htm |
| 2026-07-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000077/0001828108-26-000077-index.htm |
| 2026-07-29 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000075/0001828108-26-000075-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.