# AEVEX Corp. (AVEX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AVEX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, AEVEX Corp. (AVEX), nexqual.com/AVEX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 10.96 (+13.22% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 9.68 · day 9.85–11.19 · 52w 9.64–42.34 · market cap $758M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $59.1M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($59.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $1.5M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.73 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 25.8 (range 13–45).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -59.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -59.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-11, EPS estimate USD 0.1, revenue estimate $150M.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
Earnings yield -2.09% · Net cash $116M · EV $642M

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Madison Dearborn Partners Llc |  | 2,273,843 | $59.1M | 3.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
5 purchases, $1.5M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Booth Todd | Chief Financial Officer | 13,000 | $260K | 20 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-16 | Jackson Michael Andrew | See Remarks | 650 | $13K | 20 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-16 | Wells Charles Roger Iv | Chief Executive Officer | 500 | $10K | 20 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-16 | Raduenz Brian | Director | 50,000 | $1.0M | 20 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-16 | Hush Brett P | See Remarks | 10,000 | $200K | 20 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.73 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 25.8 (low 13, high 45).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Oppenheimer | Initiated | Outperform | $21 |
| 2026-10-22 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $26 → $22 |
| 2026-10-22 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $20 → $13 |
| 2026-10-12 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $31 → $26 |
| 2026-09-02 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Neutral | $20 |
| 2026-08-13 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $45 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2026-04-17) | 5Y (from 2026-04-13) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -59.3% | -59.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | — | — |
| Volatility (annualized) | 125.9% | 124.2% |
| Max drawdown | -76.1% (May 2026→Oct 2026) | -71.5% (May 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
HXL (Hexcel Corporation) USD 81.27 -9.54% · SARO (StandardAero, Inc.) USD 21.72 +1.26% · KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solut) USD 38.27 -1.21% · CAE (CAE Inc) USD 25.02 +2.08% · DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.) USD 34.3 +1.06% · HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries, ) USD 278.86 +1.79%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AVEX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tactical Systems | $174.2M | 86.3% | +141.6% |
| Global Solutions | $27.6M | 13.7% | -5.0% |
| Total revenue | $201.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Products | $168.7M | 83.6% | +138.1% |
| Services | $33.1M | 16.4% | +9.3% |
| Total revenue | $201.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $198.6M | 98.4% | +105.9% |
| Other foreign countries | $3.2M | 1.6% | -31.3% |
| Total revenue | $201.8M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-05-20)

- "Outlook for Full Year 2026 • Total revenue of $600.0 million to $620.0 million • Adjusted EBITDA* of $88.0 million to $94.5 million * See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for an explanation of this measure."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.10 | $0.04 | +127.1% | $149.7M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.14 | $0.04 | +280.6% | $180.3M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.52 | $0.33 | +57.0% | $749.6M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.69 | $0.50 | +38.5% | $871.1M | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-11): ±21.5%; last 1 reports averaged ±1.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 93.4% | ±21.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 78.8% | ±24.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 69.6% | ±26.6% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 82.6% | ±44.0% |