# Axogen, Inc. (AXGN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AXGN · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Axogen, Inc. (AXGN), nexqual.com/AXGN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 38.06 (+3.76% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 36.68 · day 36.6–38.33 · 52w 17.14–52.91 · market cap $2.23B · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $251M, net income -$33.5M (-13.4% margin), free cash flow $8.6M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AXGN (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $6.3M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.7M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.82 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 53.55 (range 48–58).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +109.5% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +150.6% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.13, revenue estimate $73.2M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $127M | $139M | $159M | $187M | $225M | $251M |
| Gross profit | $104M | $109M | $122M | $142M | $167M | — |
| Operating income | -$25.4M | -$29.7M | -$21.5M | -$3.3M | -$7.8M | -$12.8M |
| Net income | -$27.0M | -$28.9M | -$21.7M | -$10.0M | -$15.7M | -$33.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.65 | -$0.69 | -$0.51 | -$0.23 | -$0.34 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$41.2M | -$36.1M | -$19.6M | $1.4M | -$2.9M | $8.6M |
| Gross margin | 82.0% | 78.5% | 76.6% | 75.8% | 74.3% | — |
| Operating margin | -20.0% | -21.4% | -13.5% | -1.8% | -3.5% | -5.1% |
| Net margin | -21.2% | -20.9% | -13.7% | -5.3% | -7.0% | -13.4% |
| Revenue growth | +13.4% | +8.8% | +14.7% | +17.8% | +20.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $84.1M | $48.8M | $31.0M | $33.5M | $41.5M | — |
| Total debt | $44.8M | $45.7M | $46.6M | $47.5M | $48.4M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 8.9x · EV/Sales 8.4x · P/FCF 259.7x · P/B 8.7x · FCF yield 0.39% · Earnings yield -1.50% · Net cash $111M · EV $2.12B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AXGN. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $15.8M | Reduced -3.8% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.01% | $1.0M | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Tyndall Joseph A. | Director | 3,500 | $174K | 24.7% | Yes (adopted June 3, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-11 | Wendell Amy McBride | Director | 13,353 | $647K | 11% | Yes (adopted May 12, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-08-10 | Began Marc A | EVP & General Counsel | 67,500 | $3.2M | 57.4% | Yes (adopted March 11, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-07 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | Director | 14,150 | $641K | 100% | Yes (adopted May 8, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-08 | Wendell Amy McBride | Director | 1,647 | $70K | 1.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-05-07 | Johnson John | Director | 11,050 | $478K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-07 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | Director | 16,344 | $721K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-07 | Kemp Jens | Chief Marketing Officer | 4,000 | $174K | 5.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | CFO | 1,051 | $46K | 1.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-07 | Quackenbush Doris | Sales VP | 3,878 | $169K | 4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.82 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 53.55 (low 48, high 58).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $55 → $50 |
| 2026-10-12 | B of A Securities | Initiated | Buy | $52 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Initiated | Overweight | $55 |
| 2026-10-01 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $60 → $53 |
| 2026-09-25 | Raymond James | Target raised | Outperform | $48 → $53 |
| 2026-08-26 | Truist Securities | Initiated | Buy | $60 |
| 2026-07-30 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-07-30 | Citizens | Target raised | Market Outperform | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-07-30 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Target raised | Buy | $50 → $53 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +109.5% | +150.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +110.0% | +20.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.1% | 63.0% |
| Max drawdown | -33.1% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) | -75.4% (Oct 2021→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Medical Devices)
INSP (Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.) USD 71.11 -2.13% · ALMR (Alamar Biosciences, Inc.) USD 30.69 +3.26% · UFPT (UFP Technologies, Inc.) USD 295.78 -0.52% · ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc) USD 63.8 +0.44% · TMDX (TransMedics Group, Inc.) USD 70.74 -1.83% · BFLY (Butterfly Network, Inc.) USD 6.76 -0.73%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AXGN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $69.0M | 99.0% | +23.6% |
| International | $726,000 | 1.0% | -10.9% |
| Total revenue | $69.7M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "Guidance to at Least 24% Growth or $279 million ALACHUA and TAMPA, FL – July 29, 2026 – Axogen, Inc."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.13 | $0.14 | -7.1% | $73.2M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.14 | $0.15 | -9.8% | $81.1M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.48 | $0.49 | -2.1% | $285.6M | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.72 | $0.72 | -0.5% | $367.4M | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±20.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±12.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 89.6% | ±20.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 69.0% | ±22.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 68.9% | ±27.3% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 73.1% | ±40.8% |