# American Express Company (AXP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AXP · data as of 2026-10-22 20:03 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, American Express Company (AXP), nexqual.com/AXP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 325.17 (+0.48% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 323.61 · day 322.47–326.26 · 52w 290.97–387.49 · market cap $220B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $76.0B, net income $11.4B (15.1% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 19.2x (avg 20.4x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 16 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AXP (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 1 new, 1 added, 8 reduced, 6 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $5.4M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.4M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.33 on a 1–5 scale) (30 analysts), mean target USD 369.44 (range 320–450).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -7.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +84.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-23, EPS estimate USD 4.5, revenue estimate $20.1B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $42.4B | $52.9B | $60.5B | $65.9B | $72.2B | $76.0B |
| Net income | $8.06B | $7.51B | $8.37B | $10.1B | $10.8B | $11.4B |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.02 | $9.85 | $11.21 | $14.01 | $15.38 | — |
| Free cash flow | $13.1B | $19.2B | $17.0B | $12.1B | $16.0B | $15.1B |
| Net margin | 19.0% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 15.0% | 15.1% |
| Revenue growth | +17.4% | +24.7% | +14.5% | +9.0% | +9.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $21.7B | $33.7B | $46.8B | $40.9B | $48.5B | — |
| Total debt | $40.9B | $43.9B | $49.2B | $51.1B | $57.8B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 19.2x · P/S 2.9x · P/FCF 14.6x · P/B 6.4x · FCF yield 6.85% · Earnings yield 5.21% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.10% · Buyback yield (TTM) 3.40%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 23.8x, Dec 2024 20.9x, Dec 2023 16.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
16 of 80 tracked investors hold AXP (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Buffett | Berkshire Hathaway | 17.14% | $51.3B | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| Guy Spier | Aquamarine Capital | 15.26% | $22.0M | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 1.61% | $21.2M | Reduced -0.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 1.26% | $166M | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.95% | $568M | Added +1.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Francois Rochon | Giverny Capital | 0.53% | $15.8M | New position | Q2 2026 |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.45% | $49.3M | Reduced -2.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Christopher Davis | Davis Advisors | 0.30% | $71.0M | Reduced -10.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Christopher Bloomstran | Semper Augustus | 0.13% | $1.1M | Reduced -3.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Lindsell Train |  | 0.10% | $2.6M | Reduced -15.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Torray Funds |  | 0.09% | $665K | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | 0.09% | $68.8M | Reduced -0.1% | Q2 2026 |
| David Katz | Matrix Asset Advisors | 0.07% | $862K | Unchanged | Q3 2026 |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.05% | $91.8M | Reduced -2.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Thomas Russo | Gardner Russo & Quinn | 0.02% | $1.7M | Reduced -21.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Ruane Cunniff | Ruane Cunniff LP | <0.01% | $315K | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Herena Monique | Chief Colleague Exp. Officer | 8,811 | $3.0M | 41.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-15 | McNeal Glenda G | Chief Partner Officer | 7,033 | $2.4M | 42% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.33 on a 1–5 scale), 30 analysts; mean target USD 369.44 (low 320, high 450).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $382 → $380 |
| 2026-10-12 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $400 → $360 |
| 2026-10-09 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $415 → $400 |
| 2026-10-09 | BMO Capital | Initiated | Outperform | $380 |
| 2026-10-06 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $338 → $335 |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $384 → $345 |
| 2026-10-05 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $364 → $342 |
| 2026-10-01 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $370 → $320 |
| 2026-09-30 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $355 → $340 |
| 2026-09-23 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $375 → $370 |
| 2026-08-12 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $396 → $405 |
| 2026-08-03 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $386 → $384 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -7.3% | +84.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -7.4% | +13.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 25.7% | 29.0% |
| Max drawdown | -23.9% (Dec 2025→Mar 2026) | -30.3% (Feb 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Credit Services)
COF (Capital One Financial Corporati) USD 203.43 -1.56% · MA (Mastercard Incorporated) USD 633.21 +1.70% · V (Visa Inc.) USD 414.34 +1.59% · PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.) USD 57.54 +0.59% · SYF (Synchrony Financial) USD 75.09 +1.32% · AFRM (Affirm Holdings, Inc.) USD 72.4 -1.51%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AXP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AXP's own 10-K filed 2026-02-06 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Federal Deposit Insurance | "The direct deposit program offered by AENB is our primary deposit product channel, which makes FDIC-insured high-yield savings account, certificates of deposit (CDs), business checking and consumer checking account produ…" |
| Partner | Global Business Travel Group | "Joint ventures, such as those through which we operate in certain foreign jurisdictions, and minority investments in companies, such as GBTG, inherently involve a lesser degree of control over business operations, thereb…" |
| Partner | Costco (COST) | "The loss of exclusivity arrangements with business partners, the loss of the partner relationship altogether (whether by non-renewal at the end of the contract period, such as the end of our relationship with Costco in t…" |
| Partner | Amazon (AMZN) | "For example, our two largest redemption partners are Amazon and Delta." |
| Competitor | Visa (V) | "Our global card network competes in the global payments industry with other card networks, including, among others, Visa, China UnionPay, Mastercard, JCB, Discover and Diners Club International (the last two of which are…" |
| Competitor | Mastercard (MA) | "Our global card network competes in the global payments industry with other card networks, including, among others, Visa, China UnionPay, Mastercard, JCB, Discover and Diners Club International (the last two of which are…" |
| Competitor | PayPal (PYPL) | "In addition to such networks, we compete against a range of companies globally, including merchant acquirers, processors, payment facilitators and web- and mobile-based payment platforms (e.g., Alipay, PayPal and Shop Pa…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| USCS | $4.35B | 38.8% | +11.4% |
| CS | $3.10B | 27.6% | +4.1% |
| ICS | $2.05B | 18.3% | +9.3% |
| GMNS | $1.73B | 15.4% | +9.8% |
| Total revenue | $11.21B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-24)

- "Based on our better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, we are raising our full-year revenue growth guidance to 10 percent and plan to reinvest this outperformance in growth initiatives given the significant opportunities we see ahead."
- "We continue to expect full-year EPS of $17.30 to $17.90. "Six months into the year, we're seeing stronger momentum than we expected."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $4.50 | $4.69 | -4.0% | $20.12B | 21 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.30 | $4.36 | -1.3% | $20.79B | 23 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $17.64 | $17.71 | -0.4% | $79.47B | 25 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $20.13 | $20.15 | -0.1% | $86.61B | 28 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-23): ±5.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 42.4% | ±5.0% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 36.1% | ±5.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 31.1% | ±6.1% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 30.3% | ±6.9% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 28.9% | ±7.2% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 27.6% | ±7.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 27.2% | ±8.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 26.1% | ±10.2% |