# Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/AXSM · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM), nexqual.com/AXSM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 156.07 (-0.15% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 156.31 · day 154.24–158.08 · 52w 123.5–260.19 · market cap $8.18B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $777M, net income -$192M (-24.7% margin), free cash flow -$72.0M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold AXSM (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 2 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $51.4M; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 2 by opportunistic insiders (0 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +22.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +289.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD -0.64, revenue estimate $250M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $50.0M | $271M | $386M | $638M | $777M |
| Gross profit | — | $44.8M | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -$125M | -$180M | -$232M | -$281M | -$167M | -$186M |
| Net income | -$130M | -$187M | -$239M | -$287M | -$183M | -$192M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$3.47 | -$4.60 | -$5.27 | -$5.99 | -$3.68 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$109M | -$117M | -$146M | -$129M | -$93.9M | -$72.0M |
| Gross margin | — | 89.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | — | -359.3% | -85.7% | -72.7% | -26.1% | -24.0% |
| Net margin | — | -374.0% | -88.4% | -74.5% | -28.7% | -24.7% |
| Revenue growth | — | — | +440.8% | +42.5% | +65.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $86.5M | $201M | $386M | $315M | $323M | — |
| Total debt | $49.1M | $94.3M | $178M | $181M | $188M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 10.5x · EV/Sales 10.4x · P/B 98.1x · FCF yield -0.88% · Earnings yield -2.34% · Net cash $132M · EV $8.04B

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold AXSM. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torray Funds |  | 0.49% | $3.7M | Added +1.0% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $1.1M | Added +111.2% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
11 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Jacobson Mark L. | Chief Operating Officer | 10,000 | $2.1M | 100% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-05…2026-08-06 | Tabuteau Herriot | Chief Executive Officer | 49,664 | $10.5M | 0.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-01 | Tabuteau Herriot | Chief Executive Officer | 49,666 | $11.9M | 0.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-10…2026-06-11 | Jeffs Roger | Director | 572 | $142K | 1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-09…2026-06-10 | Mahony Susan | Director | 600 | $145K | 42% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-10 | Coleman Mark | Director | 643 | $160K | 0.1% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-09 | Tabuteau Herriot | Chief Executive Officer | 49,670 | $12.0M | 0.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-09 | Pizzie Nick | Chief Financial Officer | 33,000 | $7.9M | 43.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-29…2026-06-02 | Coleman Mark | Director | 17,537 | $4.0M | 3.9% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-04…2026-05-05 | Jacobson Mark L. | Chief Operating Officer | 4,750 | $1.1M | 100% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-22 | Maizel Ari | Chief Commercial Officer | 7,500 | $1.4M | 100% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $297 → $295 |
| 2026-09-29 | Deutsche Bank | Target lowered | Buy | $280 → $267 |
| 2026-09-25 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $251 → $247 |
| 2026-09-23 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $200 → $285 |
| 2026-09-18 | Piper Sandler | Reiterated | Overweight | $258 |
| 2026-08-31 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Buy | $290 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mizuho | Target raised | Outperform | $306 → $316 |
| 2026-08-11 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $242 → $251 |
| 2026-08-11 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $304 → $297 |
| 2026-08-11 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $260 → $275 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $255 → $256 |
| 2026-08-11 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $267 → $268 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +22.8% | +289.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +22.9% | +31.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 42.6% | 57.7% |
| Max drawdown | -38.9% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -48.3% (Mar 2022→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 90.23 -3.49% · TGTX (TG Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 53.16 -0.08% · ARWR (Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 58.36 -0.82% · SYRE (Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 92.33 -0.67% · CYTK (Cytokinetics, Incorporated) USD 62.33 -0.84% · PTGX (Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 139.53 +1.05%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/AXSM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in AXSM's own 10-K filed 2026-02-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526064267/axsm-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD (TEVA) | "Provigil and Nuvigil, which are manufactured by Teva." |
| Partner | Pfizer (PFE) | "Exclusive License Agreement with Pfizer" |
| Partner | Atnahs Pharma UK | "In February 2023, we entered into a licensing agreement, or the Pharmanovia License Agreement, with Atnahs Pharma UK Limited, or Pharmanovia, that granted to Pharmanovia the exclusive right to market SUNOSI in Europe and…" |
| Partner | Leerink Partners | "Our management will have broad discretion in the application of the net proceeds from our capital raises, which we refer to as our Capital Raises, including the proceeds from sales pursuant to the March 2022 Sales Agreem…" |
| Partner | Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) | "Royalty Agreement with Jazz Pharmaceuticals, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. and Aerial Biopharma, LLC" |
| Related party | Antecip Bioventures II | "In connection with the Blackstone Loan Agreement (see below), Antecip consented to the collateral assignment of one of the license agreements, among other things, under a direct agreement among us, Antecip, a related par…" |
| Related party | Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) | "This new direct agreement superseded the prior direct agreement among us, Antecip, a related party, and Hercules Capital, Inc. ("Hercules") that had been entered into in connection with the Hercules Loan Agreement, which…" |
| Competitor | AbbVie (ABBV) | "Among the companies that currently market or are developing therapies that, if approved, our product candidates would potentially compete with include: AbbVie;" |

Other companies that name AXSM in their own reports (relationship from AXSM's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Fortress Biotech, Inc. (FBIOP) | 10-K 2026-03-31 | "To date, three partner companies are publicly-traded, and four subsidiaries have consummated strategic partnerships with industry leaders, including AstraZeneca plc as successor-in-interest to Alexion…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $216.4M | 99.1% | +45.2% |
| Royalty & Milestone Revenue | $2.0M | 0.9% | +86.5% |
| Total revenue | $218.4M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 38%, 27%, 24% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-10).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.64 | $-0.28 | +123.2% | $250.2M | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.16 | $0.35 | -146.0% | $291.3M | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.98 | $-1.73 | +72.7% | $951.9M | 13 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.69 | $5.85 | -36.8% | $1.52B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-02): ±12.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±2.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 54.1% | ±12.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 49.1% | ±15.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 51.2% | ±19.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 49.2% | ±24.9% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 49.6% | ±29.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 48.8% | ±31.2% |
| 2027-08-20 | 301 | 47.3% | ±34.1% |
| 2027-11-19 | 392 | 46.9% | ±38.4% |