# Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BABA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), nexqual.com/BABA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 101.82 (-2.48% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 104.41 · day 100.71–103.3 · 52w 91.99–182.5 · market cap $253B · NYQ

## Key facts
- 9 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold BABA (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 3 added, 4 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $84.4M; 9 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($84.4M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $25.7M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.90 on a 1–5 scale) (41 analysts), mean target USD 186.75 (range 95.76–239.63).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -40.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -39.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-24, EPS estimate USD 10.96, revenue estimate $270B.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
9 of 80 tracked investors hold BABA. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hong | ShawSpring Partners | 16.92% | $39.3M | Added +41.0% |
| David Tepper | Appaloosa Management | 2.57% | $192M | Reduced -42.3% |
| Francis Chou | Chou Associates | 1.86% | $4.0M | Unchanged |
| Sarah Ketterer | Causeway Capital Management | 1.03% | $95.5M | Reduced -6.9% |
| Dodge & Cox Funds | Dodge & Cox | 0.50% | $956M | Added +0.4% |
| Duan Yongping | H&H International Investment | 0.15% | $28.9M | New position |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 0.03% | $380K | Reduced -2.5% |
| Richard Pzena | Pzena Investment Management | 0.01% | $2.6M | Reduced -5.9% |
| Bill Nygren | Oakmark Funds | <0.01% | $1.5M | Added +14.7% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 9 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Jiang Fang | Chief People Officer | 885,272 | $12.0M | 3.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-25 | Yu Siying | General Counsel | 6,764 | $92K | 0.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-25 | Jiang Fang | Chief People Officer | 4,889 | $66K | 0% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-25 | Xu Hong | Chief Financial Officer | 103,046 | $1.4M | 8.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans J. Michael | President | 720,000 | $68.4M | 96.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (fj) | CEO of Business Group | 13,579 | $164K | 2.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | Chief Financial Officer | 175,054 | $2.1M | 15.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-25 | Yu Siying | General Counsel | 6,772 | $82K | 0.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | Chief People Officer | 4,898 | $59K | 0% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $25.7M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Tsai Joseph C | Director | 720,000 | $10.4M | 14.47 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-24 | Tsai Joseph C | Director | 720,000 | $10.3M | 14.29 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-24 | Wu Yongming | Chief Executive Officer | 350,000 | $5.0M | 14.24 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.90 on a 1–5 scale), 41 analysts; mean target USD 186.75 (low 95.76, high 239.63).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $210 → $200 |
| 2026-10-08 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $190 → $193 |
| 2026-08-28 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Positive | $185 → $190 |
| 2026-08-21 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $205 → $210 |
| 2026-08-21 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $195 → $200 |
| 2026-08-21 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $164 → $160 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -40.2% | -39.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -40.3% | -9.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 40.3% | 48.0% |
| Max drawdown | -46.8% (Oct 2025→Jun 2026) | -64.1% (Oct 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Internet Retail)
PDD (PDD Holdings Inc.) USD 79.17 +0.57% · MELI (MercadoLibre, Inc.) USD 1,824.95 -1.61% · DASH (DoorDash, Inc.) USD 185.94 +0.81% · EBAY (eBay Inc.) USD 122.04 -0.70% · SE (Sea Limited) USD 75.69 -2.89% · JD (JD.com, Inc.) USD 25.68 -0.43%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BABA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in BABA's own 20-F filed 2026-05-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Ant Group | "Despite any precautions we may take, the occurrence of natural or manmade disasters, such as earthquakes, snowstorms, storm surges, floods, fires, droughts and other extreme weather events, or other unanticipated problem…" |
| Customer | E-commerce | "Revenue from our E-commerce business in fiscal year 2026 was RMB449,385 million (US$65,147 million), increased by 4% compared to RMB430,491 million in fiscal year 2025." |
| Partner | Company | "Any amendment to the provisions of the partnership agreement relating to the purpose of the partnership, or to the manner in which the Alibaba Partnership exercises its right to nominate a simple majority of our director…" |

Other companies that name BABA in their own reports (relationship from BABA's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| supplier | Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd (HKPD) | 20-F 2026-08-07 | "company for Alibaba Group, particularly Tmall, an e-commerce platform with a large Mainland Chinese customers base and where international" |
| competitor | RedCloud Holdings plc (RCT) | 20-F 2026-05-15 | "in the markets we operate and provides a competitive edge over international giants like Alibaba by fostering local trade and business" |
| partner | Token Cat Ltd (TC) | 20-F 2026-05-08 | "also entered into strategic partnerships with Tmall Auto, the automotive arm of Alibaba Group's Tmall, through which we expect" |
| partner | Yatsen Holding Ltd (YSG) | 20-F 2026-04-29 | "We collaborated with top experts at Alibaba and Ali Cloud to build a technology platform that can support many concurrent transactions." |
| customer | LOBO TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (LOBO) | 20-F 2026-04-28 | "It also is a golden plus supplier verified by Alibaba.com." |
| related | WEIBO Corp (WB) | 20-F 2026-04-23 | "Alibaba is a significant customer and an important strategic partner of ours." |
| related | Baozun Inc. (BZUN) | 20-F 2026-04-23 | "Cainiao and AJ have been consolidated within the Alibaba Group since October 2017 and August 2019, respectively, and therefore have become our related parties." |
| competitor | ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) | 20-F 2026-04-17 | "However, Alibaba has also invested, and may invest in the future, in our competitors." |
| competitor | JD.com, Inc. (JD) | 20-F 2026-04-16 | "Our current or potential competitors include (i) major e-commerce companies in China that offer a wide range of general merchandise product categories, such as Alibaba Group, which operates taobao.com…" |
| competitor | VNET Group, Inc. (VNET) | 20-F 2026-04-16 | "We compete with various industry players, including telecommunication carriers such as China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile, carrier-neutral service providers in China such as SINNET, GDS and …" |
| related | DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY) | 20-F 2026-04-13 | "On April 16, 2025, Alibaba Group no longer had any significant influence over us and was not considered our related party from and after that date." |
| competitor | Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) | 20-F 2026-03-17 | "We compete with Alibaba Cloud, Volcano Engine, Huawei and Kingsoft cloud for our cloud offerings." |
| partner | Perfect Corp. (PERF) | 20-F 2026-03-13 | "The level of service provided by AWS, Alibaba Cloud and Google Cloud may also impact our users', advertisers', and partners' usage of and satisfaction with products or services." |
| partner | Oatly Group AB (OTLY) | 20-F 2026-03-13 | "Our products are sold globally through a variety of channels, from independent coffee shops to nation-wide partnerships with established franchises like Starbucks, from food retailers like Target and …" |
| competitor | Sohu.com Ltd (SOHU) | 20-F 2026-03-12 | "We have many competitors in the Internet market in the Chinese mainland, including 37 Interactive, 58.com, Alibaba, Archosaur, Autohome, Baidu, Bilibili, BitAuto, Century Huatong (formerly known as Sh…" |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $10.96 | $9.91 | +10.6% | $269.88B | 18 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $14.77 | $13.61 | +8.5% | $310.51B | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-03-31) | $44.45 | $44.81 | -0.8% | $1.12T | 30 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-03-31) | $62.05 | $61.65 | +0.7% | $1.26T | 30 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-27 (includes earnings 2026-11-24): ±10.9%; earnings reaction alone ±1.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 42.4% | ±5.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 41.4% | ±6.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 40.5% | ±8.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 43.3% | ±9.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 43.2% | ±10.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 43.0% | ±11.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 42.7% | ±13.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 41.7% | ±16.1% |