# Ball Corporation (BALL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BALL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Ball Corporation (BALL), nexqual.com/BALL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 65.81 (+2.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 64.15 · day 64.13–66.12 · 52w 44.83–68.29 · market cap $17.4B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $14.3B, net income $949M (6.6% margin), free cash flow $827M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 18.4x (avg 15.3x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $6.69B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $914K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($914K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 71.54 (range 63–79).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +34.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -23.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 1.07, revenue estimate $3.78B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.8B | $13.4B | $12.1B | $11.8B | $13.2B | $14.3B |
| Operating income | $1.29B | $1.21B | $1.27B | — | — | — |
| Net income | $878M | $732M | $711M | $4.01B | $915M | $949M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.65 | $2.25 | $2.23 | $13.00 | $3.30 | — |
| Free cash flow | $34.0M | -$1.35B | $818M | -$369M | $788M | $827M |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | — | — | — |
| Net margin | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 34.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% |
| Revenue growth | +17.2% | -3.2% | -9.8% | -2.2% | +11.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $563M | $548M | $695M | $885M | $1.21B | — |
| Total debt | $7.74B | $8.95B | $8.36B | $5.50B | $6.99B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 18.4x · P/S 1.2x · EV/Sales 1.7x · P/FCF 21.1x · P/B 3.0x · FCF yield 4.75% · Earnings yield 5.45% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.23% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.38% · Net debt $6.69B · EV $24.1B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 16.0x, Dec 2024 4.2x, Dec 2023 25.6x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Glew Mandy | SVP and President, EMEA | 5,626 | $359K | 43.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-08-11 | Goodwin Deron | VP, Global Head of Treasury | 8,809 | $555K | 42.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 71.54 (low 63, high 79).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $72 → $70 |
| 2026-10-13 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $77 → $73 |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $66 → $63 |
| 2026-09-18 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral → Overweight | $65 |
| 2026-08-05 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $65 → $66 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $71 → $72 |
| 2026-08-05 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $60 → $65 |
| 2026-07-14 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $70 → $73 |
| 2026-07-09 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $75 → $77 |
| 2026-07-09 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $73 → $72 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +34.3% | -23.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +34.4% | -5.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 26.1% | 31.6% |
| Max drawdown | -21.8% (Feb 2026→Jun 2026) | -53.1% (Dec 2021→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Packaging & Containers)
IP (International Paper Company) USD 33.68 +0.15% · AMCR (Amcor plc) USD 46.28 +2.23% · AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) USD 184.66 +3.14% · PKG (Packaging Corporation of Americ) USD 248.92 +4.15% · SW (Smurfit WestRock plc) USD 42.43 +2.34% · CCK (Crown Holdings, Inc.) USD 119.26 +2.62%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BALL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name BALL in their own reports (relationship from BALL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO (TAP) | 10-K 2026-02-18 | "In the Americas segment, a portion of our aluminum cans and ends are purchased from Rocky Mountain Metal Container ("RMMC"), our joint venture with Ball Corporation, whose production facilities, which…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Beverage Packaging North & Central America | $2.01B | 50.2% | +24.4% |
| Metal Beverage Packaging Europe | $1.24B | 31.1% | +10.6% |
| Metal Beverage Packaging South America | $591.0M | 14.8% | +23.9% |
| Total revenue | $4.00B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 96% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $6.16B | 46.8% | +12.5% |
| Other Geographic Group | $5.50B | 41.8% | +12.3% |
| Brazil | $1.49B | 11.4% | +5.4% |
| Total revenue | $13.16B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 15%, 14%, 11% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-19).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.07 | $1.07 | +0.3% | $3.78B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.98 | $1.01 | -3.9% | $3.67B | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.02 | $4.00 | +0.4% | $14.94B | 14 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $4.52 | $4.52 | +0.0% | $15.60B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±7.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±6.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 33.8% | ±7.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 29.8% | ±9.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 28.1% | ±10.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 28.9% | ±13.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 28.3% | ±14.2% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 28.4% | ±17.1% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 28.3% | ±18.0% |
| 2027-09-17 | 329 | 28.0% | ±21.0% |