# Bicara Therapeutics Inc. (BCAX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BCAX · data as of 2026-10-27 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Bicara Therapeutics Inc. (BCAX), nexqual.com/BCAX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 17.48 (+3.49% on the day) · last close of Oct 27, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 16.89 · day 16.62–17.59 · 52w 13.7–30.99 · market cap $1.16B · NGM

## Key facts
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.86 on a 1–5 scale) (14 analysts), mean target USD 35.67 (range 20–45).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +2.3% vs S&P 500 +13.2%; 5Y -25.3% vs S&P 500 +79.2%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-10, EPS estimate USD -0.82, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -$39.9M | -$82.4M | -$156M | -$202M |
| Net income | -$52.0M | -$68.0M | -$138M | -$185M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$89.61 | -$4.05 | -$2.52 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$46.2M | -$74.8M | -$107M | -$135M |
| Cash + short-term investments | $230M | $490M | $415M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 2.5x · FCF yield -11.69% · Earnings yield -16.03%

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.86 on a 1–5 scale), 14 analysts; mean target USD 35.67 (low 20, high 45).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $39 |
| 2026-08-19 | BMO Capital | Initiated | Outperform | $35 |
| 2026-08-12 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $18 → $20 |
| 2026-08-12 | Wedbush | Target raised | Outperform | $30 → $33 |
| 2026-08-12 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $37 → $39 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $18 → $20 |
| 2026-08-12 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $16 → $23 |
| 2026-08-12 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $28 → $39 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-28) | 5Y (from 2024-09-09) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +2.3% | -25.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.2% | +79.2% |
| Per year | +2.3% | -12.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.5% | 78.9% |
| Max drawdown | -46.0% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -66.0% (Sep 2024→Jun 2025) |

## Peers (Biotechnology)
ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 95.81 +6.07% · RYTM (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 92.18 +3.03% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 14.58 +5.81% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 43.96 +1.24% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 142.2 -1.29% · PRAX (Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc) USD 267.59 +0.07%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BCAX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in BCAX's own 10-K filed 2026-03-30 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023658/000162828026022010/bcax-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | MSD International | "On May 19, 2022, we entered into a Clinical Trial Collaboration and Supply Agreement, or the MSD Agreement, with MSD International GmbH, or MSDIG, and MSD International Business GmbH, MSDIB, and collectively with MSDIG, …" |
| Supplier | MSD International Business | "On May 19, 2022, we entered into a Clinical Trial Collaboration and Supply Agreement, or the MSD Agreement, with MSD International GmbH, or MSDIG, and MSD International Business GmbH, MSDIB, and collectively with MSDIG, …" |
| Supplier | WuXi | "Although we believe that there are several potential alternative manufacturers who could manufacture our product candidates, we primarily rely on WuXi Biologics (Hong Kong) Limited for the production of product necessary…" |
| Partner | Biocon | "On October 1, 2019, we entered into a Contract Transfer and License Agreement, or the Biocon Agreement, with Biocon Limited, or Biocon." |
| Partner | LLC and BofA Securities | "In February 2026, we entered into an underwriting agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, TD Securities (USA) LLC and BofA Securities, Inc., as representatives of the underwriters named therein, pursuant to which we iss…" |
| Partner | Huntington | "Our corporate headquarters are currently located in Boston, Massachusetts, where we lease a total of 9,361 square feet at 116 Huntington Avenue pursuant to an Office Lease Agreement with Columbia REIT - 116 Huntington, L…" |
| Competitor | Merck (MRK) | "We expect to compete with currently commercially available therapies for the treatment of HNSCC, including pembrolizumab (marketed as Keytruda by Merck & Co); the combination of pembrolizumab, platinum chemotherapy and 5…" |
| Competitor | Eli Lilly (LLY) | "We expect to compete with currently commercially available therapies for the treatment of HNSCC, including pembrolizumab (marketed as Keytruda by Merck & Co); the combination of pembrolizumab, platinum chemotherapy and 5…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-11)

- "Cohlhepp's direction as the company prepares for the potential commercialization of ficerafusp alfa in first-line (1L) recurrent or metastatic (R/M) human papillomavirus (HPV)-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), with topline data from an interim analysis of the FORTIFI-HN01 pivotal trial expected in mid-2027. • Tanya Green, Chief Development Officer, will succeed Dr."
- "The company expects to have results from this study by the time of a potential U.S. accelerated approval in 1L R/M HPV-negative HNSCC. • Presented extended follow-up data out to three years from the Phase 1/1b study of ficerafusp alfa in combination with pembrolizumab in 1L R/M HPV-negative HNSCC at the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting."
- "Key Anticipated Upcoming Milestones HNSCC • Continued to enroll Phase 3 of the FORTIFI-HN01 pivotal trial in 1L R/M HPV-negative HNSCC and expect to be substantially enrolled by the end of the year to enable topline results from an interim analysis in mid-2027."
- "Based on its current operating and development plans, the company expects that its existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities will fund operations into the first half of 2029. • Research and Development Expenses: Research and development expenses were $45.8 million for the second quarter of 2026 as compared to $24.8 million for the second quarter of 2025."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.82 | $-0.85 | -3.2% | $0 | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.85 | $-0.89 | -4.5% | $0 | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-3.39 | $-3.48 | -2.6% | $0 | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-3.52 | $-3.63 | -3.0% | $0 | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-10): ±16.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 24 | 136.5% | ±16.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 52 | 109.2% | ±38.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 80 | 91.5% | ±34.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 143 | 71.1% | ±36.1% |
| 2027-04-16 | 171 | 76.4% | ±42.2% |