# Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BCYC · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC), nexqual.com/BCYC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 3.82 (-1.55% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 3.88 · day 3.71–4.13 · 52w 3.33–9.08 · market cap $267M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $61.2M, net income -$190M (-311.1% margin), free cash flow -$208M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $123K; 9 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($112K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 6 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 9.5 (range 5–14).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -55.7% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y -92.6% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD -0.41, revenue estimate $1.6M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-10-29
- Dividend: BCYC paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 8.84% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 7.2 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7M | $14.5M | $27.0M | $35.3M | $72.6M | $61.2M |
| Operating income | -$65.6M | -$117M | -$190M | -$210M | -$247M | -$210M |
| Net income | -$66.8M | -$113M | -$181M | -$169M | -$219M | -$190M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.67 | -$3.80 | -$5.08 | -$2.90 | -$3.16 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$16.8M | -$105M | -$63.6M | -$166M | -$252M | -$208M |
| Operating margin | -561.0% | -806.6% | -704.1% | -595.0% | -340.4% | -343.6% |
| Net margin | -571.2% | -779.3% | -669.7% | -479.2% | -301.7% | -311.1% |
| Revenue growth | +12.6% | +23.6% | +86.5% | +30.8% | +105.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $439M | $339M | $526M | $880M | $628M | — |
| Total debt | $29.9M | $30.3M | $30.7M | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 4.4x · P/B 0.5x · FCF yield -77.90% · Earnings yield -71.22%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02…2026-10-05 | Skynner Michael | CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 2,445 | $9K | 1.6% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Apr & Jul & Oct each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02…2026-10-05 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | CHIEF PROD & SUPPLY CHAIN OFF | 1,814 | $6K | 1.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-02…2026-10-05 | Perry Jennifer Scott | Chief Operating Officer | 1,500 | $5K | 1.6% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02…2026-10-05 | Lee Kevin | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | 7,805 | $27K | 1.3% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Apr & Jul & Oct each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02…2026-10-05 | Thompson Travis Alvin | Chief Financial Officer | 972 | $3K | 1.5% | No | Routine (sold in Jul & Oct each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Swanton Robert Charles | Director | 3,431 | $12K | 17.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-02…2026-07-06 | Perry Jennifer Scott | Chief Operating Officer | 1,412 | $6K | 1.5% | Yes (adopted March 27, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-02…2026-07-06 | Skynner Michael | CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER | 2,391 | $10K | 1.5% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Apr & Jul & Oct each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-02…2026-07-06 | Lee Kevin | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | 7,642 | $33K | 1.3% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Apr & Jul & Oct each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-02…2026-07-06 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | CHIEF PROD & SUPPLY CHAIN OFF | 1,761 | $8K | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-02…2026-07-06 | Thompson Travis Alvin | Chief Financial Officer | 923 | $4K | 1.4% | No | Routine (sold in Jul & Oct each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 9.5 (low 5, high 14).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $15 → $14 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -55.7% | -92.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -55.9% | -40.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 52.9% | 64.5% |
| Max drawdown | -61.4% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -94.5% (Dec 2021→Sep 2026) |

## Dividends
BCYC paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
3,453,064 shares sold short, 8.84% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 3,331,791 shares (+3.6%). Days to cover: 7.2 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Biotechnology)
ORKA (Oruka Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 96.65 +0.71% · LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor) USD 317.33 -0.45% · IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.) USD 9.56 -35.45% · IONS (Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) USD 44.39 -1.14% · AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) USD 143.45 -0.04% · ABVX (Abivax SA) USD 89.06 -0.87%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BCYC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-29)

- "Bicycle Therapeutics is actively enrolling patients in a Phase 2 clinical trial to evaluate efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetics of nuzefatide in adult patients with recurrent pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and expects to provide further updates in 2027. ·"
- "Radioconjugate (BRC ® ) molecules and advance its emerging radioligand pipeline, with initiation of the first company-sponsored radioligand clinical trial for BT1702, an MT1-MMP-targeting BRC ® , expected in the second half of 2027. ·"
- "The company expects to report Duravelo-2 survival data from the randomized Phase 2 trial in previously untreated patients with metastatic urothelial cancer (mUC) in the second half of 2027 ."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.41 | $-0.38 | −$0.03 | $1.6M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $-0.58 | $-0.60 | +$0.02 | $1.1M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.45 | $-2.32 | −$0.13 | $17.5M | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-2.21 | $-2.19 | −$0.02 | $6.7M | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±11.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 55.9% | ±11.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 61.4% | ±19.0% |
| 2027-03-19 | 141 | 83.0% | ±50.4% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.72 | −$0.58 | Miss −24.1% | +0.0% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.87 | −$0.65 | Miss −33.8% | +1.5% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.29 | −$0.95 | Beat +69.5% | -6.9% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -1.3% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +0.0% |
| May 1, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +8.6% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +0.6% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | — | — | — | — | -5.5% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Sep 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761612/000110465926119864/0001104659-26-119864-index.htm |
| 2026-10-29 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761612/000110465926119858/0001104659-26-119858-index.htm |
| 2026-08-20 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On August 18, 2026, Charles Swanton resigned as a Class II director of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Bicycle Therapeutics plc (the "Company"), as a member of the Board's committees and as a member of the Company's Clinical Advisory Board, effective immediately. Dr. Swanton's resignation was for personal reasons and not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company's operations, policies or practices.” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761612/000110465926099221/0001104659-26-099221-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | Armistice Capital, LLC, Steven Boyd: 6.7% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761612/000117266126003554/0001172661-26-003554-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761612/000110465926088457/0001104659-26-088457-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761612/000110465926088455/0001104659-26-088455-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.