# Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BLBD · data as of 2026-10-15 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD), nexqual.com/BLBD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 57.51 (+1.32% on the day) · last close of Oct 15, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 56.76 · day 56.56–58.3 · 52w 46.14–83.39 · market cap $1.96B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $1.61B, net income $282M (17.5% margin), free cash flow $153M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 6.9x (avg 19.6x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.2x, net cash $30.0M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $250K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($250K).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 89.13 (range 82–95).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +4.0% vs S&P 500 +18.1%; 5Y +190.9% vs S&P 500 +85.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-25, EPS estimate USD 1.45, revenue estimate $551M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2024 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $801M | $801M | $1.13B | $1.35B | $1.48B | $1.61B |
| Gross profit | $36.5M | $36.5M | $139M | $256M | $304M | — |
| Operating income | -$40.7M | -$40.7M | $51.7M | $139M | $167M | $190M |
| Net income | -$45.8M | -$45.8M | $23.8M | $106M | $128M | $282M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.48 | -$1.48 | $0.74 | $3.16 | $3.88 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$30.9M | -$30.9M | $111M | $95.8M | $153M | $153M |
| Gross margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 12.3% | 19.0% | 20.5% | — |
| Operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | 4.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.8% |
| Net margin | -5.7% | -5.7% | 2.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 17.5% |
| Revenue growth | +17.1% | +17.1% | +41.5% | +18.9% | +9.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $10.5M | $10.5M | $79.0M | $128M | $229M | — |
| Total debt | — | $150M | $130M | $95.0M | $90.3M | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 6.9x · P/S 1.2x · EV/EBITDA 9.2x · EV/Sales 1.2x · P/FCF 12.8x · P/B 3.0x · FCF yield 7.82% · Earnings yield 14.39% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.41% · Net cash $30.0M · EV $1.93B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 14.8x, Sep 2024 15.2x, Sep 2023 28.9x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott | Chief Operating Officer | 4,000 | $250K | 10.3% | No |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 89.13 (low 82, high 95).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $86 → $91 |
| 2026-08-06 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $86 |
| 2026-08-06 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $80 → $95 |
| 2026-07-20 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $75 → $85 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-16) | 5Y (from 2021-10-11) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +4.0% | +190.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +18.1% | +85.1% |
| Per year | +4.0% | +23.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 42.9% | 55.8% |
| Max drawdown | -31.9% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -70.1% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery)
ALG (Alamo Group, Inc.) USD 152.62 -1.64% · LNN (Lindsay Corporation) USD 110.59 -4.22% · ASTE (Astec Industries, Inc.) USD 38.92 -3.73% · AEBI (Aebi Schmidt Holding AG) USD 11.22 -0.18% · MTW (Manitowoc Company, Inc. (The)) USD 22.43 -0.53% · TEX (Terex Corporation) USD 52.65 -1.02%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BLBD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt