# Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BLMN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN), nexqual.com/BLMN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 10.27 (+2.14% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 10.05 · day 9.81–10.3 · 52w 5.19–12.63 · market cap $879M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 28, 2026): revenue $3.98B, net income $27.7M (0.7% margin), free cash flow $155M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 31.8x (avg 37.5x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.6x, net debt $636M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold BLMN (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 11.81 (range 8.8–15).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +34.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -44.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-06, EPS estimate USD -0.24, revenue estimate $925M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.12B | $4.01B | $4.17B | $3.95B | $3.96B | $3.98B |
| Gross profit | $2.89B | $2.77B | $2.93B | $2.80B | $2.78B | — |
| Operating income | $309M | $306M | $283M | $140M | $37.2M | $47.6M |
| Net income | $216M | $102M | $247M | -$128M | $8.2M | $27.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.00 | $1.03 | $2.56 | -$1.49 | $0.10 | — |
| Free cash flow | $280M | $198M | $250M | $7.4M | $96.8M | $155M |
| Gross margin | 70.2% | 69.1% | 70.2% | 70.9% | 70.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Net margin | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.9% | -3.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Revenue growth | +30.0% | -2.7% | +4.0% | -5.2% | +0.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $87.6M | $84.7M | $112M | $70.1M | $59.5M | — |
| Total debt | $793M | $829M | $781M | $1.03B | $787M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026)
P/E 31.8x · P/S 0.2x · EV/EBITDA 6.6x · EV/Sales 0.4x · P/FCF 5.7x · P/B 2.0x · FCF yield 17.63% · Earnings yield 3.15% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.45% · Net debt $636M · EV $1.52B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 63.9x, Dec 2023 11.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold BLMN. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Miller | Miller Value Partners | 5.59% | $23.6M | Added +27.0% |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 11.81 (low 8.8, high 15).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Freedom Capital Markets | Maintained | Buy | $15 |
| 2026-09-29 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Underweight → Neutral | $6 → $13 |
| 2026-09-21 | Freedom Capital Markets | Maintained | Buy | $15 |
| 2026-08-10 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $9 → $12 |
| 2026-08-06 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $8 → $12 |
| 2026-07-24 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $9.5 → $8.75 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +34.3% | -44.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +34.4% | -11.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 73.9% | 54.4% |
| Max drawdown | -34.8% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -80.5% (Mar 2024→Mar 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
CNNE (Cannae Holdings, Inc.) USD 16.43 +2.05% · FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group, I) USD 11.56 +3.86% · WEN (Wendy's Company (The)) USD 6.57 +4.62% · BJRI (BJ's Restaurants, Inc.) USD 58.79 +3.54% · SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) USD 10.22 +0.59% · BH (Biglari Holdings Inc.) USD 395.33 -4.58%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BLMN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $998.6M | 99.2% | +1.3% | $67.6M | 6.8% |
| International franchise | $7.6M | 0.8% | +7.7% | $7.4M | 97.6% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$37.4M | — |
| Total revenue | $1.01B | 100% | — | $38.3M | 3.8% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant sales | $998.0M | 99.2% | +1.3% |
| Franchise and other revenues | $17.9M | 1.8% | +1.5% |
| Franchise | $8.4M | 0.8% | -0.7% |
| Total revenue | $1.01B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 101.8% of total revenue.

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.24 | $-0.19 | +26.7% | $925.1M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.14 | $0.11 | +23.6% | $983.7M | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.97 | $0.87 | +11.4% | $3.98B | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.09 | $0.95 | +14.3% | $4.05B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-06): ±17.1%; last 8 reports averaged ±17.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 75.4% | ±17.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 69.0% | ±21.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 64.2% | ±24.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 68.7% | ±37.8% |