# Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BROS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS), nexqual.com/BROS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 41.75 (-1.21% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 42.26 · day 40.6–42.62 · 52w 36.51–74.02 · market cap $7.32B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.88B, net income $92.4M (4.9% margin), free cash flow $95.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 79.3x (avg 465.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 24.2x, net cash $68.1M.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.04 on a 1–5 scale) (26 analysts), mean target USD 68.32 (range 29–95).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -26.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -39.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.24, revenue estimate $549M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $498M | $739M | $966M | $1.28B | $1.64B | $1.88B |
| Gross profit | $153M | $181M | $251M | $340M | $424M | — |
| Operating income | -$111M | -$2.6M | $46.2M | $106M | $161M | $180M |
| Net income | -$12.7M | -$4.8M | $1.7M | $35.3M | $79.8M | $92.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.28 | -$0.09 | $0.03 | $0.34 | $0.64 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$38.1M | -$128M | -$88.5M | $24.7M | $54.4M | $95.0M |
| Gross margin | 30.8% | 24.5% | 26.0% | 26.6% | 25.9% | — |
| Operating margin | -22.3% | -0.4% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% |
| Net margin | -2.5% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Revenue growth | +52.1% | +48.4% | +30.7% | +32.6% | +27.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $18.5M | $20.2M | $134M | $293M | $269M | — |
| Total debt | $3.6M | $100M | $99.1M | $238M | $202M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 79.3x · P/S 3.9x · EV/EBITDA 24.2x · EV/Sales 3.9x · P/FCF 77.1x · P/B 9.2x · FCF yield 1.30% · Earnings yield 1.26% · Net cash $68.1M · EV $7.25B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 96.4x, Dec 2024 154.7x, Dec 2023 1144.3x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.04 on a 1–5 scale), 26 analysts; mean target USD 68.32 (low 29, high 95).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | RBC Capital | Downgrade | Outperform → Sector Perform | $70 → $46 |
| 2026-10-21 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $86 → $69 |
| 2026-10-21 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $70 → $55 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $59 → $55 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $88 → $71 |
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $80 → $65 |
| 2026-10-02 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $82 → $60 |
| 2026-09-30 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $82 → $66 |
| 2026-09-29 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $75 → $60 |
| 2026-09-28 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Buy | $85 → $60 |
| 2026-09-18 | Melius Research | Target lowered | Buy | $95 → $70 |
| 2026-09-18 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Buy | $59 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -26.9% | -39.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -27.0% | -9.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 51.9% | 62.8% |
| Max drawdown | -49.1% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -69.5% (Oct 2021→Sep 2023) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) USD 190.11 +1.09% · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) USD 54.68 -0.58% · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor) USD 112.44 -1.70% · JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) USD 17.69 +0.17% · DPZ (Domino's Pizza Inc) USD 317.7 +2.11% · TXRH (Texas Roadhouse, Inc.) USD 172.78 +2.96%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BROS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in BROS's own 10-K filed 2026-02-13 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866581/000186658126000006/bros-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Lieb Foods | "For certain products, we may rely on one or very few suppliers, such as for our proprietary Dutch Bros Rebel energy drinks, where we rely on relationships with our co-packers, Portland Bottling Co. and Lieb Foods, LLC to…" |
| Partner | OpCo | "We anticipate that Dutch Bros OpCo will continue to be treated as a partnership for U.S. federal income tax purposes and, as such, generally will not be subject to any entity-level U.S. federal income tax." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company-operated shops | $510.0M | 92.6% | +34.0% |
| Franchising and other | $40.8M | 7.4% | +15.6% |
| Total revenue | $550.9M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-03-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company-operated shops | $429.1M | 92.4% | +31.4% |
| Franchise Fees | $34.0M | 7.3% | +25.3% |
| Product & Service Other | $1.4M | 0.3% | -14.7% |
| Total revenue | $464.4M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Guidance on Total Revenues, System Same Shop Sales Growth, and Adjusted EBITDA TEMPE, Ariz. - August 5, 2026 - Dutch Bros Inc."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.24 | $0.25 | -2.2% | $548.9M | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.25 | $0.23 | +6.8% | $567.6M | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.98 | $0.94 | +3.9% | $2.13B | 17 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.31 | $1.26 | +3.9% | $2.65B | 16 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±13.8%; earnings reaction alone ±11.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±11.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 50.3% | ±6.0% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 84.7% | ±13.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 72.0% | ±14.3% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 68.6% | ±15.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 64.8% | ±16.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 59.9% | ±16.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 57.6% | ±18.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 55.9% | ±21.7% |