# Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BURL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL), nexqual.com/BURL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 252.62 (+1.81% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 248.13 · day 246.95–254.34 · 52w 226.85–378.33 · market cap $15.9B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Aug 1, 2026): revenue $12.2B, net income $714M (5.8% margin), free cash flow $413M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 22.2x (avg 34.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $1.21B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $14.3M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($11.9M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 5 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 367.75 (range 300–440).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -5.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -9.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-27, EPS estimate USD 1.73, revenue estimate $2.99B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.32B | $8.70B | $9.73B | $10.6B | $11.6B | $12.2B |
| Gross profit | $3.89B | $3.53B | $4.14B | $4.61B | $5.08B | — |
| Net income | $230M | $230M | $340M | $504M | $610M | $714M |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.00 | $3.49 | $5.23 | $7.80 | $9.51 | — |
| Free cash flow | $481M | $149M | $376M | -$17.0M | $172M | $413M |
| Gross margin | 41.7% | 40.6% | 42.6% | 43.3% | 43.9% | — |
| Net margin | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
| Revenue growth | +61.7% | -6.6% | +11.8% | +9.3% | +8.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.09B | $873M | $925M | $995M | $1.23B | — |
| Total debt | $1.53B | $1.49B | $1.39B | $1.70B | $2.08B | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Aug 1, 2026)
P/E 22.2x · P/S 1.3x · EV/Sales 1.4x · P/FCF 38.5x · P/B 7.9x · FCF yield 2.60% · Earnings yield 4.50% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.18% · Net debt $1.21B · EV $17.1B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jan 2026 31.1x, Feb 2025 32.0x, Feb 2024 39.2x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | Group President and CMO | 1,678 | $456K | 2.2% | Yes | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | Group President and CMO | 1,678 | $436K | 2.2% | Yes | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-03 | Vecchio Jennifer | Group President and CMO | 1,678 | $619K | 2.1% | Yes | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-01 | Vecchio Jennifer | Group President and CMO | 1,678 | $529K | 2.1% | Yes | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-17 | Wolfe Kristin | Chief Financial Officer | 8,200 | $2.8M | 23.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-12 | Vecchio Jennifer | Group President and CMO | 20,920 | $7.1M | 20.5% | No | Routine (sold in Mar each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-11 | Ferroni Stephen | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 2,343 | $790K | 62.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-05 | Pasch Matthew | Chief Human Resources Officer | 3,773 | $1.2M | 36.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-05 | Marquette Travis | President and COO | 190 | $60K | 0.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-04 | Marquette Travis | President and COO | 894 | $277K | 3.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.11 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 367.75 (low 300, high 440).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Wolfe Research | Initiated | Outperform | $356 |
| 2026-08-31 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $394 → $382 |
| 2026-08-31 | Deutsche Bank | Target lowered | Hold | $367 → $323 |
| 2026-08-28 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $380 → $318 |
| 2026-08-28 | Bernstein | Target lowered | Outperform | $365 → $355 |
| 2026-08-28 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Overweight | $438 → $432 |
| 2026-08-17 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $375 → $400 |
| 2026-08-17 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $435 → $440 |
| 2026-08-14 | Jefferies | Target raised | Buy | $365 → $410 |
| 2026-08-05 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $380 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -5.8% | -9.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -5.8% | -1.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 40.4% | 43.5% |
| Max drawdown | -38.9% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -62.8% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Apparel Retail)
LULU (lululemon athletica inc.) USD 104.06 +7.80% · GAP (Gap, Inc. (The)) USD 22.91 +0.97% · URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) USD 88.29 +1.53% · VSXY (Victorias Secret & Co.) USD 88.42 -0.82% · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) USD 161.49 +1.16% · BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) USD 119.76 +3.16%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BURL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in BURL's own 10-K filed 2026-03-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579298/000119312526116001/burl-20260131.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Meta Platforms (META) | "Information that we post on our website or on social media channels could be deemed material; therefore, we encourage investors, the media, our customers, business partners and others interested in the Company to review …" |

Other companies that name BURL in their own reports (relationship from BURL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | SITE Centers Corp. (SITC) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "The Company's five largest tenants based on the Company's aggregate annualized base rental revenues, including its proportionate share of joint venture aggregate annualized base rental revenues, are T…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-27)

- "Please note that guidance now includes the benefit of $55 million in tariff refunds, which were recognized in the second quarter of fiscal 2026."
- "In addition, guidance also includes the reinvestment of approximately 40% of such refunds in the third quarter and approximately 60% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026."
- "Tariff refunds therefore have a neutral impact on full fiscal year 2026 earnings guidance."
- "Excluding the $55 million planned tariff refund reinvestment, our underlying Fall guidance assumptions for EBIT margin improvement and earnings growth are unchanged versus prior guidance, estimated EBIT margin improvement of 10 to 30 basis points and EPS growth of 7% to 10%."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $1.73 | $2.04 | -15.3% | $2.99B | 17 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $5.22 | $5.53 | -5.6% | $3.98B | 17 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-01-31) | $11.80 | $11.80 | -0.0% | $12.83B | 18 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-01-31) | $13.69 | $13.79 | -0.8% | $13.97B | 18 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-27 (includes earnings 2026-11-27): ±12.7%; earnings reaction alone ±7.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 44.5% | ±5.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 41.9% | ±6.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 42.3% | ±8.4% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 42.4% | ±9.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 50.6% | ±12.7% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 49.7% | ±13.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 47.5% | ±15.1% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 44.2% | ±17.0% |