# The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/BWIN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN), nexqual.com/BWIN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 31.89 (-0.09% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 31.89 · day 31.89–32.02 · 52w 15.88–32.71 · market cap null · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.74B, net income -$81.2M (-4.7% margin), free cash flow $43.7M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $4.6M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.6M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 1 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.25 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 32.42 (range 32–32.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +30.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -17.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.43, revenue estimate $492M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $567M | $981M | $1.22B | $1.39B | $1.50B | $1.74B |
| Operating income | -$31.6M | -$31.1M | -$42.6M | $60.6M | $73.9M | -$120M |
| Net income | -$30.6M | -$41.8M | -$90.1M | -$24.5M | -$33.8M | -$81.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.64 | -$0.74 | -$1.50 | -$0.39 | -$0.50 | — |
| Free cash flow | $34.8M | -$24.4M | -$21.3M | $10.4M | -$68.9M | $43.7M |
| Operating margin | -5.6% | -3.2% | -3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | -6.9% |
| Net margin | -5.4% | -4.3% | -7.4% | -1.8% | -2.2% | -4.7% |
| Revenue growth | — | +72.9% | +24.3% | +14.0% | +8.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $138M | $118M | $116M | $90.0M | $124M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)


## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Cohen Seth Bala | General Counsel | 15,000 | $300K | 51.7% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-06…2026-05-07 | Krystyn Elizabeth |  | 202,000 | $4.3M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.25 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 32.42 (low 32, high 32.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | TD Cowen | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $37 → $32.5 |
| 2026-10-02 | UBS | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $37 → $32.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Overweight → Neutral | $30 → $32 |
| 2026-09-15 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $26 → $32.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | William Blair | Downgrade | Outperform → Market Perform |  |
| 2026-08-03 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $35 → $37 |
| 2026-08-03 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $27 → $28 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $28 → $30 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $24 → $27 |
| 2026-07-08 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $26 → $31 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +30.6% | -17.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +30.7% | -3.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.8% | 49.6% |
| Max drawdown | -42.1% (Nov 2025→Feb 2026) | -69.9% (Oct 2024→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Insurance Brokers)
ARX (Accelerant Holdings) USD 19.76 +0.05% · CRVL (CorVel Corp.) USD 83.88 +3.93% · NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.) USD 28.72 +1.16% · LIFE (Ethos Technologies Inc.) USD 43.53 -1.56% · GSHD (Goosehead Insurance, Inc.) USD 50.62 +11.69% · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.49 +5.28%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/BWIN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in BWIN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1781755/000178175526000018/bwin-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO) | "As described in Management's Annual Report on Internal Control Over Financial Reporting, management has excluded two partnerships (MultiStrat and Hippo's Homebuilder Distribution Network) from its assessment of internal …" |
| Partner | LLC Members of | "The Tax Receivable Agreement with Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members provides for the payment by us to Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax or…" |
| Partner | Baldwin of | "The Tax Receivable Agreement with Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members provides for the payment by us to Baldwin Holdings' LLC Members of 85% of the amount of cash savings, if any, in U.S. federal, state and local income tax or…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Advisory Solutions | $275.3M | 55.9% | +50.2% |
| Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions | $160.2M | 32.5% | +8.6% |
| Mainstreet Insurance Solutions | $75.3M | 15.3% | +13.2% |
| Total revenue | $492.9M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 103.6% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commission Revenue | $373.1M | 75.7% | +24.7% |
| Consultingand Service Fee Revenue | $44.9M | 9.1% | +64.0% |
| Profit Sharing Revenue | $29.5M | 6.0% | +48.0% |
| Policy Feeand Installment Fee Revenue | $21.2M | 4.3% | +7.7% |
| Earned Premium | $15.3M | 3.1% | +179.0% |
| Other Insurance Product Line | $4.8M | 1.0% | +6.7% |
| Total revenue | $492.9M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-26).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This press release may contain various "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which represent Baldwin's expectations or beliefs concerning future events."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.43 | $0.44 | -2.4% | $491.8M | 9 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.46 | $0.47 | -2.1% | $487.9M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.01 | $2.01 | -0.1% | $2.01B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.48 | $2.50 | -0.9% | $2.20B | 9 |