# The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/CAKE · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE), nexqual.com/CAKE" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 112.44 (-1.70% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 114.39 · day 110.51–115.16 · 52w 43.07–118.63 · market cap $5.60B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.88B, net income $179M (4.6% margin), free cash flow $206M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 31.3x (avg 16.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 18.8x, net debt $368M.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold CAKE (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 11 Form 4 filings, $28.8M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($28.8M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $25K.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.95 on a 1–5 scale) (19 analysts), mean target USD 103.27 (range 60–128).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +104.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +198.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 0.92, revenue estimate $999M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.93B | $3.30B | $3.44B | $3.58B | $3.75B | $3.88B |
| Gross profit | $2.27B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | $82.3M | $38.9M | $109M | $178M | $187M | $204M |
| Net income | $72.4M | $43.1M | $101M | $157M | $148M | $179M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.01 | $0.86 | $2.07 | $3.20 | $3.06 | — |
| Free cash flow | $146M | $49.5M | $66.8M | $108M | $155M | $206M |
| Gross margin | 77.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | 2.8% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Revenue growth | +47.6% | +12.8% | +4.1% | +4.1% | +4.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $190M | $115M | $56.3M | $84.2M | $216M | — |
| Total debt | $466M | $468M | $470M | $452M | $630M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 31.3x · P/S 1.4x · EV/EBITDA 18.8x · EV/Sales 1.5x · P/FCF 27.1x · P/B 10.8x · FCF yield 3.69% · Earnings yield 3.19% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.99% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.75% · Net debt $368M · EV $5.96B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 16.5x, Dec 2024 14.8x, Jan 2024 16.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold CAKE. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.02% | $10.6M | Reduced -9.5% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.02% | $2.6M | Added +34.1% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 11 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Meyer Janice L. | Director | 1,958 | $214K | 8.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-10 | Gordon David M | PRESIDENT | 31,950 | $3.5M | 54.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-10 | Ames Edie A | Director | 3,000 | $321K | 23.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-05 | Overton David | CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. | 94,145 | $10.0M | 21% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-04 | Cappello Alexander L | Director | 64 | $7K | 1.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-30…2026-08-03 | Cappello Alexander L | Director | 2,254 | $229K | 35.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-31 | May Scarlett | EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL | 7,978 | $819K | 30.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-30 | Hanscom Ashley W | PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER | 3,500 | $350K | 31.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-30 | Clark Matthew Eliot | EXEC VP, CFO | 68,900 | $6.8M | 60.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-02 | Cappello Alexander L | Director | 2,490 | $162K | 28.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-01 | Overton David | CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. | 104,000 | $6.3M | 3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $25K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-12 | Ames Edie A | Director | 500 | $25K | 49.51 |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.95 on a 1–5 scale), 19 analysts; mean target USD 103.27 (low 60, high 128).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Baird | Target raised | Neutral | $105 → $120 |
| 2026-10-21 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $105 → $110 |
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $104 → $128 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $80 → $87 |
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $93 → $100 |
| 2026-10-06 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $101 → $122 |
| 2026-09-15 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $90 → $105 |
| 2026-08-26 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $92 → $105 |
| 2026-07-30 | Argus Research | Target raised | Buy | $72 → $110 |
| 2026-07-29 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $91 → $101 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mizuho | Target raised | Neutral | $85 → $93 |
| 2026-07-29 | Baird | Target raised | Neutral | $65 → $90 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +104.7% | +198.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +105.3% | +24.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 39.1% | 37.9% |
| Max drawdown | -22.7% (Oct 2025→Nov 2025) | -41.2% (Nov 2021→Jul 2022) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) USD 17.69 +0.17% · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) USD 54.68 -0.58% · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.) USD 41.75 -1.21% · EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) USD 190.11 +1.09% · WING (Wingstop Inc.) USD 120.87 +0.77% · DPZ (Domino's Pizza Inc) USD 317.7 +2.11%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/CAKE · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in CAKE's own 10-K filed 2026-02-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887596/000110465926018643/cake-20251230x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | ByteDance | "We utilize a social media and digital marketing strategy that allows us to engage regularly with our customers outside of our restaurants, including communication and paid advertising on social media platforms such as In…" |
| Supplier | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "We utilize a social media and digital marketing strategy that allows us to engage regularly with our customers outside of our restaurants, including communication and paid advertising on social media platforms such as In…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cheesecake Factory | $729.5M | 70.8% | +6.8% | $128.0M | 17.5% |
| Other Fox Restaurant Concepts Llc | $104.0M | 10.1% | +15.4% | $4.0M | 3.8% |
| North Italia | $98.4M | 9.6% | +8.4% | $6.7M | 6.8% |
| All Other Segments | $97.7M | 9.5% | +6.7% | -$60.1M | -61.5% |
| Total revenue | $1.03B | 100% | — | $78.6M | 7.6% |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "The Company continues to expect to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as five to six The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, six to seven North Italia locations, seven Flower Child locations and as many as seven FRC restaurants."
- "(5) Based on the federal statutory rate and an estimated blended state tax rate, the tax effect on all adjustments assumes a 26% tax rate for the fiscal 2026 and 2025 periods."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.92 | $0.66 | +39.3% | $999.2M | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.27 | $1.18 | +7.5% | $1.03B | 17 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.64 | $4.07 | +13.9% | $4.04B | 19 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.15 | $4.49 | +14.9% | $4.35B | 19 |